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How did our September call do?

We said 75% hold.The Fed hiked 25bp, 12-0.

AI SIMULATION, NOT A FORECASTSimulated as of 1 Aug 2026

AI agents play 19 real Fed officials. All write memos. 12 vote. We simulate 4 possible scenarios.

Each box is one vote. Top box: our 1 Aug simulation, most likely vote of each. Bottom box: the 16 Sep vote.

  1. SPLIT
    Hammack
    HIKE
  2. SPLIT
    Kashkari
    HIKE
  3. SPLIT
    Logan
    HIKE
  4. HOLD
    Cook
    HIKE
  5. HOLD
    Waller
    HIKE
  6. Chair
    HOLD
    Warsh
    HIKE
  7. HOLD
    Barr
    HIKE
  8. HOLD
    Jefferson
    HIKE
  9. HOLD
    Paulson
    HIKE
  10. HOLD
    Powell
    HIKE
  11. HOLD
    Williams
    HIKE
  12. HOLD
    Bowman
    HIKE
Hawkish
Lean hawkish
Centrist
Dovish
HawkishLean hawkishCentristDovish

SPLIT = voted both waysBlank face = no portrait features on record, none guessed

Goolsbee, attends, no voteMusalem, attends, no voteSchmid, attends, no voteBarkin, attends, no voteCollins, attends, no voteDaly, attends, no voteVenable, attends, no vote

Attend, no vote

12 votes7 attend without a vote

Missed

Most likely outcome: hold. What happened: hike.

0

dissents. We watched Bowman, Barr and Hammack.

1.125

Brier score. 0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip, 2 is the worst.

The market priced about 71% for a hike. We said 25%.

Market figure: JPM OIS monitor, 3 Jul 2026.

Source: FOMC statement of 16 Sep 2026 (12-0, so all 12 voters hiked) and our ledger, scored 7 Oct 2026.