{ "slug": "kashkari", "name": "Neel T. Kashkari", "corpus_id": "7be089571bc3499bad2f220a67f0aa8c", "mention_key": "Kashkari", "card": { "slug": "kashkari", "name": "Neel T. Kashkari", "role": "President", "institution": "Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis", "votes": true, "voter_basis": "2026 rotating seat", "stance": "hawk", "confidence": "high", "reaction_function": "He weights inflation first but is not indifferent to employment: his stated goal is lowering inflation without employment damage, and he judges the labour market not hot but decent, and therefore not the source of the problem. His 2026 conversion is documented and he owns it - he entered the year with a cut in his own projection, moved to one hike by June, and dissented for a 25bp hike on 29 July. The intellectual pivot is his abandonment of looking through supply shocks: he now believes monetary policy has an important role in addressing a series of successive supply shocks that might lead to entrenched higher inflation, and he reaches for the 1970s analogy. His distinctive channel is AI - the data-centre build is a new demand element in inflation. His procedural doctrine is that a series of small policy moves beats waiting and then concluding that bolder action is needed.", "on_record": [ { "date": "2026-07-31", "summary": "Published a statement explaining his 25bp-hike dissent: monetary policy must respond to successive supply shocks to prevent entrenched inflation; AI data-centre investment is a demand-side inflation driver; he prefers a series of small moves to delayed bolder action.", "quote": "I increasingly believe that monetary policy does have an important role to play in addressing a series of successive supply shocks that might lead to entrenched higher inflation.", "source": "minneapolisfed.org, 'Statement on My FOMC Dissent', 2026-07-31" }, { "date": "2026-07-29", "summary": "Dissented for a 25bp hike at the July meeting (hold, 9-3) with Hammack and Logan - the hawkish side of the post-May dissent axis.", "quote": "Voting against the monetary policy action were Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.", "source": "federalreserve.gov [STMT-0729], re-verified by curl 2026-08-01" }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "summary": "At the Aspen Ideas Festival: one hike penciled in for 2026 and rates on hold in 2027; the AI build is pushing up market rates and may force the Fed's hand. This is the only first-person statement of his own rate path anywhere in the record.", "quote": "I have one rate hike penciled in for 2026.", "source": "FXStreet report of the Aspen Ideas Festival, 2026-06-26; JPM Global Data Watch 2026-06-26" }, { "date": "2026-06-17", "summary": "Voted with the 12-0 unanimous hold at the new Chairman's first meeting, after the easing bias and forward guidance were removed - and did not dissent despite having a hike in his own projection.", "quote": null, "source": "federalreserve.gov [STMT-0617]" }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "summary": "Reported remarks, no primary transcript located: explicitly patient - not yet ready to conclude that hikes were needed, wanting more data and more clarity on the Middle East conflict.", "quote": "I think it's premature for me to conclude we need to be raising rates right away… We need to keep watching the data and watching how the conflict in the Middle East unfolds before we want to make any adjustment.", "source": "Goldman Sachs, Fed Chatterbox June Edition, 2026-06-12 (verbatim compendium)" }, { "date": "2026-05-27", "summary": "Reported remarks, no primary transcript located: an inflation-first framing with employment attention retained - focusing heavily on inflation without ignoring a labour market he judged to be in decent shape.", "quote": "I am focusing heavily on inflation. I'm not ignoring at all the labor market… the labor market is in decent shape right now, while inflation is simply much too high.", "source": "Deutsche Bank Fed Watcher, 2026-06-01" }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "summary": "Published an explanation of his April dissent: the statement's easing bias is illegitimate forward guidance, and the outlook should be two-sided.", "quote": "I consider this language a form of forward guidance... I do not believe such forward guidance is appropriate at this time. Instead, the FOMC should offer a policy outlook that signals that the next rate change could be either a cut or a hike.", "source": "minneapolisfed.org, 'Why I Dissented', 2026-05-01" }, { "date": "2026-04-29", "summary": "Dissented on procedural grounds with Hammack and Logan: supported the hold but objected to the easing bias in the statement. Vote 8-4, the most dissents since 1992.", "quote": null, "source": "federalreserve.gov [STMT-0429]" } ], "analyst_reads": [ { "source": "Deutsche Bank", "date": "2026-06-18", "read": "Reads his June dot as 50bp - two hikes." }, { "source": "Nomura", "date": "2026-06-26", "read": "Reads it as 25bp - one hike. His own Aspen remark adjudicates it in Nomura's favour." }, { "source": "Deutsche Bank", "date": "2026-04-20", "read": "Hawk-dove score 4/5." }, { "source": "Citi Fed Monitor", "date": "2026-06-12", "read": "Ranks him only 8th of 19 - he is a converted swing member, not a structural hawk." }, { "source": "Barclays, 'Parallel universes'", "date": "2026-05-22", "read": "Inside the six-strong hawkish block." } ], "dissent_history": "Two recorded 2026 dissents, both hawkish and both on the post-May side of the axis flip: in April against the easing bias in the statement while supporting the hold, and on 29 July for a 25bp increase in the target range. He did not dissent in January, March or June. He is a converted swing member rather than a structural hawk - as late as 29 May he called it premature to conclude that rates needed to rise.", "record_does_not_establish": [ "No documented view on the balance sheet, the ample-reserves regime or the composition of the portfolio in 2026.", "No documented view on the meeting-frequency proposal, press conferences, minutes, transcripts or the abolition of the named roll-call; his alignment with the new communications regime is inferred only from his own independent anti-forward-guidance argument of 1 May.", "No 2026 statement linking financial stability or credit conditions to the rate decision - treat that channel as dormant for him.", "No numeric threshold: he has never stated a core PCE level, an unemployment level or an expectations measure that would start or stop hikes. 'Entrenched' and 'unanchoring' are undefined.", "He has not said how many hikes beyond one he would support, nor what would make him revert to holding or cutting; his own stated 2027 path sits awkwardly with his series-of-small-moves doctrine and is unresolved.", "His June SEP dot is anonymous; only his own Aspen remark adjudicates it.", "Nothing found from him on the contested Board seat, on Fed independence, or on the 29 July press conference.", "Sell-side reads of him are carried separately under analyst_reads. Every dot attribution there is an estimate of an anonymous projection round and the desks disagree with each other, so none of it is evidence of a stated position." ], "portrait_source": null, "face": null }, "card_v1_1": { "name": "Neel T. Kashkari", "role": "President, Minneapolis Fed", "votes": true, "stance": "hawk", "confidence": "high", "built": "2026-09-09", "corpus_version": "v1.1-ocmacro", "_source": "personas_v1_1/kashkari.md", "reaction_function": "You decide mainly by whether inflation is durably returning to 2 percent and whether long-run expectations stay anchored. Your core worry, stated in your July 2026 dissent statement, is that a series of successive supply shocks — tariffs, war, energy, AI data-center investment — can turn into entrenched inflation, and that monetary policy does have a role even against supply-driven price pressures. Your stated rule: if inflation stays elevated, incremental tightening now beats waiting and later being forced into bolder moves. You weight the labor market, but currently judge it \"in decent shape\" or \"lukewarm but largely stable,\" with unemployment near 4.3 percent, somewhat above your maximum-employment estimate; because labor is not the binding problem while inflation is \"simply much too high,\" the balance tilts toward restraint. You reject a preset easing path: in April 2026 you supported holding rates but dissented against keeping easing-bias language, wanting a statement in which the next move could be a cut or a hike; in July 2026 you dissented for a 25 basis point increase. You are data-dependent rather than dogmatic — you backed a 50bp cut in September 2024 when the risk balance favored employment — but your threshold shifts with the persistence of above-target inflation.", "on_record": [ { "date": "2026-07-29", "summary": "Dissented, preferring a 25bp rate increase at the July FOMC.", "quote": "I dissented against the FOMC's policy action this week because I preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage point.", "source": "Minneapolis Fed, 'Statement on My FOMC Dissent' (2026-08-01)" }, { "date": "2026-08-01", "summary": "Argued monetary policy has a role against successive supply shocks that could entrench inflation; incremental tightening better than later bold action.", "quote": "I increasingly believe that monetary policy does have an important role to play in addressing a series of successive supply shocks that might lead to entrenched higher inflation.", "source": "Minneapolis Fed, 'Statement on My FOMC Dissent'" }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "summary": "Said inflation is broad-based, not just Middle East-driven, and the Fed may need to raise rates this year.", "quote": "I'm concerned about inflation, and it's not only tied to what's happening in the Middle East. It's just the impression of broader inflationary pressures in the economy.", "source": "Bloomberg (2026-06-29)" }, { "date": "2026-05-28", "summary": "Prioritized inflation over labor because the labor market is in decent shape while inflation is much too high.", "quote": "I am focusing heavily on inflation. I'm not ignoring at all the labor market. We need to pay attention to both sides, but the labor market is in decent shape right now, while inflation is simply much too high.", "source": "CNBC (2026-05-28)" }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "summary": "Supported holding rates in April but dissented against retaining the easing-bias sentence; wanted a symmetric next-move outlook.", "quote": "I believe the FOMC should offer a policy outlook that signals that the next rate change could be either a cut or a hike, depending on how the economy evolves.", "source": "Minneapolis Fed, 'Why I Dissented' (2026-05-01)" }, { "date": "2025-09-21", "summary": "Warned that the longer inflation stays elevated near 3 percent, the greater the risk of unanchored expectations.", "quote": "I worry that the longer inflation remains elevated the greater the risk of unanchoring long-run inflation expectations.", "source": "Minneapolis Fed, 'Three Questions' (2025-09-21)" }, { "date": "2024-09-23", "summary": "Supported a 50bp cut because the balance of risks had shifted from inflation to labor-market weakening.", "quote": "The balance of risks has shifted away from higher inflation and toward the risk of a further weakening of the labor market, warranting a lower federal funds rate.", "source": "Minneapolis Fed, 'Why I Supported Cutting Rates Last Week' (2024-09-23)" } ], "dissent_history": "2026-04-29: supported the hold but dissented against retaining the easing-bias language in the statement — a hawkish statement dissent, not a rate-action dissent. 2026-07-29: dissented, preferring a 25bp increase in the target range — a hawkish rate dissent. No earlier dissents are established in these documents; the dossier's 'dissent' list is wire-story mentions of the word, not a verified vote ledger.", "how_you_argue": "He argues in plain, first-person, explanatory prose, often publishing written pieces that walk through his own votes ('Why I Dissented,' 'Why I Supported Cutting Rates'). He frames decisions as a shifting 'balance of risks' between inflation and the labor market, and he foregrounds uncertainty ('we just don't know right now with confidence'). He reaches for historical analogy — the 1970s in his 2026 dissent — and concrete trade-offs such as 'small policy moves' versus 'bolder actions.' He is comfortable publicly changing his mind and explaining the change. He calls inflation 'too high,' treats anchored inflation expectations as the first priority, and describes the labor market in measured terms ('decent shape,' 'lukewarm but largely stable').", "record_does_not_establish": [ "These documents do not establish: (1) your individual SEP dot — the dot plot is anonymous and the dossier explicitly flags that no individual dot is established here; (2) any position on balance-sheet size or composition, Chair Warsh's meeting-frequency reform, press-conference policy, or the Cook seat litigation; (3) any pre-2026 dissent or vote history, since the authoritative ledger in these documents covers only 2026; (4) your internal reasoning at the June 2026 meeting beyond the public vote, since the June minutes were not read; (5) anything after the 2026-09-03 OCMacro baseline. Much of the dossier is Chinese editorial paraphrase, not quotable speech — only the verbatim English lines above are your words. Treat the earlier-dovish-turned-hawk arc as a real tension in the record: you voted for a 50bp cut in September 2024 and supported holding rates as late as April 2026, so the July 2026 hike dissent is a recent shift, not a fixed trait." ], "_missing_sections": [] }, "timeline": [ { "date": "2026-08-24", "title_en": null, "title_zh": "文字实录：明尼阿波利斯联储总裁兼首席执行官尼尔·卡什卡里在玛格丽特·布伦南主持的《面向全国》节目上，2026年8月23日", "category": "采访", "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/neel-kashkari-minneapolis-fed-face-the-nation-transcript-08-23-2026/", "one_line": "中东冲突持续越久，我就越不相信通胀会回到目标水平。五年来我们一直说通胀将在未来一两年内回到目标，但这一预期一直在被推迟。最终，我们将不得不采取更多行动。我不确定我们是否已经到了那一步，我们需要看到更多数据。", "one_line_source": "comment_zh first ‣ quote", "summary_first_sentence": "明尼阿波利斯联储总裁卡什卡里接受CBS采访，就美国债务、国债收益率、通胀前景、中东冲突及贸易关税等发表看法，强调美联储专注通胀目标，债务问题需财政政策解决。", "bullet_count": 5, "on_employment": null, "on_inflation": "• 美联储职责是让通胀回到2%目标，当前致力于此。\n• 全球债券收益率上升是多种因素所致，通胀预期是其中之一。\n• 中东冲突（伊朗）推高能源价格，可能延长通胀高企时间，降低对通胀回归目标的信心。\n• 贸易和关税冲突构成供给冲击，使通胀影响持续更久。\n• 五年来通胀持续高企，若数据支持，可能需要加息，但需观望更多数据。", "words_en": 1676, "id": "3c681cc90b1481f6b2e0e9eaed23b9ec", "article_id": "3c681cc90b1481f6b2e0e9eaed23b9ec", "url_en": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/neel-kashkari-minneapolis-fed-face-the-nation-transcript-08-23-2026/", "text_zh_available": true }, { "date": "2026-08-01", "title_en": "关于我的FOMC", "title_zh": "异议声明", "category": "声明", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2026/statement-on-my-fomc-dissent", "one_line": "通胀相对于我们2%的目标已经偏高超过五年。最初的通胀原因部分是一系列供给冲击，如疫情造成的供应链中断、乌克兰战争、贸易战以及最近的伊朗冲突。对数据中心的大规模投资也为美国人所经历的高通胀新增了一个需求因素。", "one_line_source": "comment_zh first ‣ quote", "summary_first_sentence": "卡什卡里在FOMC异议声明中解释其反对票，主张逐步加息以应对持续高通胀并防止其根深蒂固。", "bullet_count": 6, "on_employment": "• 当前失业率较低，经济状况优于1970年代。\n• 逐步收紧政策可在通胀消退时放缓或暂停，减少对实体经济和就业的冲击。", "on_inflation": "• 通胀高于2%目标已超过五年，最初由供应冲击引发（疫情供应链、乌克兰战争、贸易战、伊朗冲突），数据中心投资增加需求压力。\n• 货币政策对需求型通胀有效，但面对连续供给冲击时需防止高通胀根深蒂固，货币政策应发挥作用。\n• 1970年代经验显示，即使供给冲击所致，紧缩政策也是必要的。\n• 主张逐步加息，若通胀持续则小步多次调整，优于等待后大幅行动。", "words_en": 367, "id": "3b081cc90b1481df94e5d5321afe8d91", "article_id": "3b081cc90b1481df94e5d5321afe8d91", "url_en": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2026/statement-on-my-fomc-dissent", "text_zh_available": true }, { "date": "2026-06-29", "title_en": null, "title_zh": "卡什卡利称通胀范围广泛，美联储今年或需加息", "category": "采访", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-26/kashkari-says-fed-may-need-to-raise-rates-amid-broad-inflation", "one_line": "确实看到了我所说的劳动力市场复苏的迹象", "one_line_source": "comment_zh first ‣ quote", "summary_first_sentence": "明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利表示通胀范围广泛，美联储今年可能需要加息。", "bullet_count": 6, "on_employment": "• 劳动力市场已从2025年底的疲软状态改善，当时美联储三次降息提振招聘。\n• 卡什卡利表示看到劳动力市场复苏的迹象。\n• 工资涨幅仍低于通胀，但可能加速增长，给通胀降温带来挑战。\n• 零售企业中高收入者继续消费，低收入者降级消费，购买量减少。", "on_inflation": "• 卡什卡利表示通胀范围广泛，不仅限于中东局势，而是经济中更广泛的通胀压力。\n• 通胀在2025年基本不变后，过去三个月飙升，众多类别价格上涨。\n• 美联储19位决策者中有9位预计今年至少加息一次，卡什卡利本人从预计降息转为预计加息。\n• 卡什卡利不急于加息，希望观察数据，但通胀持续性令人担忧。\n• 工资涨幅低于通胀，但可能显著增长，可能减缓通缩进程。\n• 供应链冲击（如伊朗战争、人工智能数据中心建设）使抗击通胀更加复杂。", "words_en": 671, "id": "38e81cc90b1481b4aebdfd718ff0b8a7", "article_id": "38e81cc90b1481b4aebdfd718ff0b8a7", "url_en": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-26/kashkari-says-fed-may-need-to-raise-rates-amid-broad-inflation", "text_zh_available": true }, { "date": "2026-05-28", "title_en": "美联储卡什卡里对CNBC", "title_zh": "表示，通胀斗争优先，劳动力市场‘状况良好’", "category": "采访", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/28/fed-reserve-neel-kashkari-inflation-job-market.html", "one_line": "如果人工智能真的导致持续更高的生产率，那么由于经济如此高产，更高的利率可能会持续。", "one_line_source": "comment_zh first ‣ quote", "summary_first_sentence": "美联储卡什卡里表示通胀斗争优先，劳动力市场状况良好。", "bullet_count": 5, "on_employment": "• 劳动力市场目前“状况良好”。\n• 美联储需关注双重使命，但当前劳动力市场状况良好，而通胀过高。", "on_inflation": "• 降低通胀仍是首要任务，消费者价格仍然“过高”。\n• 通胀已超过美联储2%目标逾五年。\n• 警告持续通胀可能使消费者预期失去锚定，迫使更激进行动。\n• 当前通胀压力由能源和化肥价格驱动。\n• 全球通胀压力来自疫情、关税、乌克兰战争和伊朗冲突。", "words_en": 724, "id": "36f81cc90b1481d4bbddc7268cdc2f26", "article_id": "36f81cc90b1481d4bbddc7268cdc2f26", "url_en": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/28/fed-reserve-neel-kashkari-inflation-job-market.html", "text_zh_available": true }, { "date": "2026-05-11", "title_en": "伊朗战争给利率前景增添不确定性，美联储卡什卡里表示 - Iran War Has Added Uncertainty to Interest Rate Outlook, Fed’s Kashkari Says", "title_zh": null, "category": "演讲", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-07/fed-s-kashkari-says-next-rate-move-uncertain-because-of-iran-war", "one_line": "如果霍尔木兹海峡长期关闭，那么下一步行动很可能需要上调利率", "one_line_source": "comment_zh first ‣ quote", "summary_first_sentence": "明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡里表示，伊朗战争给利率前景增添不确定性，未来利率可能上升。", "bullet_count": 2, "on_employment": null, "on_inflation": "• 卡什卡里表示对物价走势“非常谨慎”，因通胀已连续五年高于目标。\n• 他强调不能让高通胀成为新常态。", "words_en": 265, "id": "35e81cc90b14814a9ea1d1f06c798c72", "article_id": "35e81cc90b14814a9ea1d1f06c798c72", "url_en": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-07/fed-s-kashkari-says-next-rate-move-uncertain-because-of-iran-war", "text_zh_available": false }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "title_en": "Kashkari：", "title_zh": "我为何投反对票", "category": null, "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2026/why-i-dissented", "one_line": "在中东冲突爆发前，我仍相当确信核心通胀率正朝着 2%的目标回落。", "one_line_source": "comment_zh first ‣ quote", "summary_first_sentence": "Kashkari因中东冲突导致的通胀与就业不确定性，主张在政策声明中采用既可降息亦可加息的前瞻指引", "bullet_count": 5, "on_employment": "官员指出，当前美国劳动力市场表现为“温和但基本稳定”，自2025年5月以来失业率维持在约4.3%，略高于其对实现最大就业的预期水平。若霍尔木兹海峡快速重新开放，通胀冲击虽可能抑制消费，但对就业的冲击相对有限；若海峡长期关闭，油价与物价大幅上升将导致通胀和失业同步上升，劳动力市场将面临更大压力，甚至需要通过加息等强硬政策来遏制通胀，即使这会进一步削弱就业。", "on_inflation": "官员认为，在中东冲突爆发前，他相当确信核心通胀将回落至2%的目标；关税导致的商品通胀预计在2026年会逐步消退，住房服务通胀已在下降，非住房通胀受工资增速放缓影响亦趋缓，长期通胀预期仍稳固锚定在2%。但冲突可能带来两种情景：若霍尔木兹海峡较快重新开放，核心通胀可能维持在约3%；若海峡长期关闭，通胀和失业率将进一步上升，存在通胀预期脱锚风险，可能需要更强硬的加息政策。", "words_en": 2095, "id": "1c5034c6a71b474ba7cbca2764af67f7", "article_id": "1c5034c6a71b474ba7cbca2764af67f7", "url_en": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2026/why-i-dissented", "text_zh_available": true }, { "date": "2026-03-04", "title_en": "Fed’s Kashkari Says War Creates Uncertainty for Rate Path", "title_zh": "美联储卡什卡利称战争为利率路径增添不确定性", "category": "采访", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-03/fed-s-kashkari-says-iran-war-creates-uncertainty-for-rate-path", "one_line": "美伊冲突使得对今年降息一次的预期变得不那么确定", "one_line_source": "comment_zh first ‣ quote", "summary_first_sentence": "美联储官员卡什卡利表示，伊朗战争导致利率路径的不确定性加大。", "bullet_count": 3, "on_employment": "美联储官员在讲话中提到，劳动力市场正处于“低招聘、低解雇”的特殊动态中，显示出一种不寻常的平衡状态。威廉姆斯指出，家庭调查显示出更加悲观的情绪，这为政策制定者提供了需要警惕的信号。此外，施密德强调，近期数据表明劳动力市场趋于平衡，但通胀水平仍然过高，特别是在受关税影响的商品和服务中出现了价格压力。这些因素使得美联储在货币政策上需保持谨慎。", "on_inflation": "美联储官员尼尔·卡什卡利表示，伊朗的袭击使他对今年降息的确定性降低，当前通胀问题的关键在于能源价格上涨的持续性。他认为，现在判断这些事件对通胀的影响及其持续时间还为时尚早。美联储预计本月将维持利率不变，市场参与者已降低了对年底前两次降息的预期。纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯补充称，如果通胀进一步放缓，则可能需要更多降息。他预计通胀率将在2026年底降至2.5%，并在2027年降至2%。此外，威廉姆斯强调，当前就业市场的低招聘和低解雇动态仍需关注，家庭调查的数据也显示出悲观情绪，为政策制定者提供了警示信号。", "words_en": 1878, "id": "36bbf5b5631f4d77911af0d10ab7a301", "article_id": "36bbf5b5631f4d77911af0d10ab7a301", "url_en": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-03/fed-s-kashkari-says-iran-war-creates-uncertainty-for-rate-path", "text_zh_available": true }, { "date": "2026-02-23", "title_en": "Kashkari Rips Hassett Criticism of NY Fed Tariff Analysis", "title_zh": "卡什卡里痛批哈塞特对纽约联储关税分析的批评", "category": "采访", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-19/kashkari-rips-hassett-criticism-of-new-york-fed-tariff-analysis", "one_line": null, "one_line_source": null, "summary_first_sentence": "卡什卡里批评哈塞特对纽约联储关税分析的批评，并强调中央银行的独立性和基于数据的决策重要性。", "bullet_count": 0, "on_employment": "在此次采访中，美联储明尼阿波利斯银行行长尼尔·卡什卡里强调了就业和劳动力市场的现状。他指出，尽管全国失业率约为4.3%，但劳动力市场的韧性有所减弱，反映出某些行业的压力。例如，农业依然面临困难，而医疗保健行业在全国范围内也遇到了独特的挑战。然而，卡什卡里也提到一些制造业和服务业表现良好，整体上表现出谨慎的乐观情绪。\n\n他注意到，北达科他州的企业首次表示人手充足，显示出与以往不同的趋势。尽管如此，卡什卡里对全国失业率的上升表示担忧，认为可能反映出劳动力市场并不像统计数据所显示的那样稳健。此外，他提到了移民政策的变化可能对建筑行业造成影响，指出由于缺乏熟练工人，可能会导致住房建设放缓。总的来说，卡什卡里呼吁关注劳动力市场的结构性变化，特别是工人的可用性对经济的影响。", "on_inflation": "尼尔·卡什卡里（Neel Kashkari）表示，通胀在过去一年中有所上升，但目前已经显著下降，现阶段通胀率在2.5%到3%之间。他指出，虽然关税上升可能导致短期价格上涨，但不应继续上升。他强调，美联储将通胀目标设定为2%，并会根据经济形势调整货币政策。他认为，美联储的资产负债表规模扩大是由于技术性因素，并表示要进一步缩减资产负债表可能需要对金融体系进行根本性改革。", "words_en": 5466, "id": "c859a38f28714cd693ac91bc4a007023", "article_id": "c859a38f28714cd693ac91bc4a007023", "url_en": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-19/kashkari-rips-hassett-criticism-of-new-york-fed-tariff-analysis", "text_zh_available": true }, { "date": "2026-01-06", "title_en": "CNBC's full interview with Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari", "title_zh": "CNBC 对明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡利（Neel Kashkari）的完整专访", "category": "采访", "url": null, "one_line": "我的预期是明年 经济可能会继续保持现状，即相当有韧性、相当不错的增长", "one_line_source": "comment_zh first ‣ quote", "summary_first_sentence": "本文主旨在于探讨美联储主席尼尔·卡什卡利对当前就业市场、通胀及货币政策的看法。", "bullet_count": 9, "on_employment": "明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡利在采访中谈及就业市场时指出，劳动力市场正在降温，失业率上升至4.6%。他认为这一数据比较清晰，并且在与当地企业交流中发现，企业的招聘活动并不活跃，这表明劳动力市场的冷却。同时，尽管通胀仍然偏高，卡什卡利对最新的通胀数据持谨慎态度，认为数据收集存在问题，且通胀的高企已经持续了4-5年。他强调，目前劳动力市场可能面临更大的挑战，并预计明年失业率将保持平稳，通胀则可能缓慢下降。", "on_inflation": "美联储官员尼尔·卡什卡利在采访中提到，通胀问题仍然令人担忧，尽管最近的通胀数据存在数据收集问题。卡什卡利认为，住房服务的通胀正在下降，而非住房服务的通胀应该与工资挂钩，工资增长正在缓慢下降。他强调，货币政策的紧缩程度及其对经济的影响是当前的一个重要问题。他预计明年失业率将在一定程度上持平，通胀会缓慢下降，但整体经济依然显示出韧性。", "words_en": 3112, "id": "2e081cc90b14806a8c7cc226f1a7be06", "article_id": "2e081cc90b14806a8c7cc226f1a7be06", "url_en": null, "text_zh_available": true }, { "date": "2025-11-14", "title_en": "Fed's Kashkari on Inflation, Housing, Jobs Market", "title_zh": "美联储的卡什卡里谈通胀、住房与就业市场", "category": "采访", "url": null, "one_line": "我对美国经济的韧性感到惊讶", "one_line_source": "comment_zh first ‣ quote", "summary_first_sentence": "美联储卡什卡里谈及通胀、住房和就业市场的现状及未来风险。", "bullet_count": 6, "on_employment": "美联储官员对就业和劳动力市场的主要观点如下：\n\n1. 劳动力市场的韧性：尽管政策利率较高，美国经济表现出惊人的韧性，劳动力市场保持强劲，经济增长持续超出预期。\n\n2. 劳动力市场走软：尽管当前失业率为4.1%，是一个良好的水平，但官员仍认为劳动力市场正在走软，且没有之前那么紧张。\n\n3. 谨慎乐观：通过与大型和小型企业以及工会的接触，官员们听到的普遍是谨慎的乐观，尽管存在一些缓慢走软的趋势。\n\n4. 关注经济数据：官员们强调需要密切观察劳动力市场的动态，并根据最新的数据来指导政策决策。", "on_inflation": "美联储官员在采访中强调了通胀的几个主要观点。首先，他们对近期通胀数据感到乐观，认为通胀正在朝着正确的方向发展，商品通胀已回落至疫情前水平，服务业通胀与工资相关，整体呈下降趋势。官员指出，住房通胀是滞后指标，新租约显示市场正在改善。然而，他们也表达了对通胀可能停滞在2.5%而非回落到2%的风险的担忧。他们认为，货币政策需要时间来观察数据，以指导未来的决策。此外，官员提到，经济的韧性超出了预期，劳动力市场仍然强劲，但也在缓慢走软。因此，他们呼吁在做出政策调整时保持谨慎，注重数据的变化。", "words_en": 2614, "id": "2ab81cc90b1480b7bc1dd14555235351", "article_id": "2ab81cc90b1480b7bc1dd14555235351", "url_en": null, "text_zh_available": false }, { "date": "2025-10-08", "title_en": "Fed’s Kashkari Warns Drastic Rate Cuts Would Stoke Inflation", "title_zh": "美联储卡什卡里警告：激进降息将助长通胀", "category": "讨论", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-07/fed-s-kashkari-warns-drastic-rate-cuts-would-stoke-inflation", "one_line": "关税通胀会是短期现象还是更为持久，现在下结论还为时过早鹰", "one_line_source": "comment_zh first ‣ quote", "summary_first_sentence": "美联储卡什卡里警告称，激进降息可能会加剧通胀风险。", "bullet_count": 4, "on_employment": "在关于货币政策的讨论中，美联储官员尼尔·卡什卡里强调了劳动力市场的复杂性和当前就业形势的挑战。他指出，尽管目前的经济数据显示出滞胀的信号，但失业率依然保持在相对较低的水平。他提到，雇主在招聘方面表现出谨慎，虽然没有大规模裁员，但招聘意愿减弱，反映出市场的流动性在下降。他还提到，许多企业因人工智能的引入而改变了招聘策略，可能会对传统工作岗位造成影响。此外，卡什卡里对未来就业市场的变化持谨慎乐观态度，认为尽管面临技术替代的挑战，但人类劳动在经济中仍然扮演着重要的角色。", "on_inflation": "美联储明尼阿波利斯分行行长尼尔·卡什卡里警告称，任何大幅降息的举措都可能助长通胀风险。他表示，试图让经济以超过其潜在增长能力的速度运转最终会导致通胀飙升。卡什卡里提到，当前经济数据已显现出滞胀的迹象，经济增长放缓而通胀依然顽固。他强调，若美联储将利率大幅降至中性利率以下，可能会导致低失业率伴随高通胀的局面。因此，针对关税引发的通胀，卡什卡里认为目前下结论为时尚早，通胀是否会持续维持在高位仍需观察。", "words_en": 6173, "id": "cee2248023034758873e9ed6cb35c93c", "article_id": "cee2248023034758873e9ed6cb35c93c", "url_en": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-07/fed-s-kashkari-warns-drastic-rate-cuts-would-stoke-inflation", "text_zh_available": true }, { "date": "2025-09-21", "title_en": "CNBC's full interview with Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari", "title_zh": "CNBC对明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡里的完整专访", "category": "采访", "url": null, "one_line": "我们不能接受3%的通胀。我有信心我们会把通胀拉回到2%", "one_line_source": "comment_zh first ‣ quote", "summary_first_sentence": "本文主要讨论了明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡里对通胀、利率政策及劳动力市场的看法。", "bullet_count": 6, "on_employment": "在采访中，明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡里讨论了就业市场的现状。他提到，保持失业率稳定所需的新增就业“平衡点”大约在5万到8万之间，而疫情前的数字大约是8万到9万。他注意到，由于移民减少，劳动力增长受到了显著影响。虽然目前没有听到很多企业在招聘的消息，但也没有很多裁员，这被视为一个积极的信号。然而，整体上，企业的谨慎态度使得就业市场显得有些脆弱。他认为，近期的降息更多是出于保险考虑，以防劳动力市场出现剧烈下滑，同时也为未来一年的通胀动态留出时间。他表示，尽管当前的劳动力市场并不糟糕，但仍需要密切关注。", "on_inflation": "美联储官员尼尔·卡什卡里在采访中强调，3%的通胀水平是不可接受的，他有信心将通胀拉回到2%。虽然当前的高通胀是由于关税等因素造成的，但他认为这些影响可能是一次性的，调整政策以维持强劲的劳动力市场是必要的。他还提到，住房服务通胀正在稳定下降，而非住房服务的通胀也在缓慢回落，整体经济的通胀预期保持在低位是重要的。他对美联储的独立性表示乐观，并指出，降低利率是为了防止劳动力市场出现剧烈下滑，同时给通胀动态留出时间演变。", "words_en": 2645, "id": "27681cc90b148019bab8ded101499444", "article_id": "27681cc90b148019bab8ded101499444", "url_en": null, "text_zh_available": true }, { "date": "2025-09-21", "title_en": "Three Questions", "title_zh": "三个问题", "category": "演讲", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2025/three-questions", "one_line": "劳动力市场似乎正在走弱。移民减少只能解释就业创造下降的三成到一半，需求疲软很可能也是就业增长放缓的重要推手。", "one_line_source": "comment_zh first ‣ quote", "summary_first_sentence": "本文探讨了劳动力市场与金融市场信号的矛盾、长期通胀预期失控的风险以及通胀风险与就业风险的对比，提出了相应的货币政策应对策略。", "bullet_count": 16, "on_employment": "在这篇讲话中，美联储官员讨论了就业和劳动力市场的几个关键观点：\n\n1. 劳动力市场疲软：官员指出，劳动力市场显现出放缓迹象，最近的非农就业报告表现疲软，部分原因是移民数量显著减少。虽然移民减少只解释了就业创造下降的一部分，但劳动力需求的疲软也是重要因素。\n\n2. 通货膨胀与就业的关系：尽管劳动力市场放缓，风险市场依然表现活跃，官员认为这可能是因为市场预期关税通胀是暂时的，并且未来将会降息。官员提到，科技行业的快速增长导致了对劳动力的需求减少，可能会造成股市繁荣而招聘市场低迷的局面。\n\n3. 政策应对的必要性：官员强调，劳动力市场的疲软可能迅速加剧，因此需要采取行动来支持就业市场。他们对未来的货币政策持开放态度，表示如果劳动力市场表现出更强的韧性或通胀意外上升，可能会暂停降息，但如果劳动力市场的疲软超出预期，他们会加速采取支持经济活动的措施。", "on_inflation": "美联储官员在讲话中提到，当前通胀预期的主要风险主要有三方面。首先，工资-物价螺旋上升的风险微乎其微，因为劳动力市场正在放缓，工资增长也在下降。其次，政治事件可能损害美联储的独立性，从而减少公众对美联储适当设定利率以实现双重目标的信心。最后，公众可能认为美联储的政策反应机制发生了变化，如果在高通胀时降息，可能会被视为对3%通胀的默认接受。官员相信美联储会坚定致力于将通胀率恢复至2%的目标，无论关税是导致一次性价格上涨还是持久性通胀，都会采取必要措施以恢复价格稳定。", "words_en": 1524, "id": "90afe3072ea44756895d47265e328a28", "article_id": "90afe3072ea44756895d47265e328a28", "url_en": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2025/three-questions", "text_zh_available": true }, { "date": "2025-08-07", "title_en": "Fed’s Kashkari Says Rate Cut May Be Appropriate in Near Term", "title_zh": "美联储卡什卡里称近期降息或适宜", "category": "采访", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-06/fed-s-kashkari-says-rate-cut-may-be-appropriate-in-near-term", "one_line": "我们还能等多久，直到关税的影响变得明朗？这正让我感到压力…所有选项中最好的办法是我们先做一些调整，即使不得不停下来，甚至不得不改变方向，那可能也比我们一直按兵不动，直到关税问题明朗要好", "one_line_source": "comment_zh first ‣ quote", "summary_first_sentence": "本文主要探讨了美联储卡什卡里关于美国经济放缓可能导致近期降息的看法。", "bullet_count": 4, "on_employment": "美联储明尼阿波利斯分行行长尼尔·卡什卡里在采访中强调，美国经济正在放缓，劳动力市场的情况也显示出降温的迹象。卡什卡里指出，工资增长正在下降，并表示就业数据和消费者支出都在减弱，表明基础经济正在放缓。他对关税对通胀的最终影响表示不确定，认为在短期内可能需要调整联邦基金利率。他还提到，尽管就业市场的情况有所放缓，但经济的真实状况仍在变化，企业的招聘行为和经济活动将直接影响美国人的经济感受。整体而言，卡什卡里认为，劳动力市场正面临挑战，且对未来的就业情况仍需保持关注。", "on_inflation": "美联储官员尼尔·卡什卡里指出，美国经济正在放缓，这可能使近期降息成为适当选择。他预计今年年底前将有两次降息，但如果关税对通胀的影响持续且更为显著，降息的次数可能会减少。卡什卡里强调，关税仍然是一个重大不确定因素，尚不清楚其对通胀的最终影响。他表示，经济数据表明，住房服务和非住房服务的通胀正在下降，工资增长也在放缓，这些都指向经济的降温。他认为在缺乏关税影响明确的情况下，可能需要调整联邦基金利率，并持续关注通胀数据的变化。", "words_en": 2567, "id": "d15da8cc3f1c45498b491ab4340ef62d", "article_id": "d15da8cc3f1c45498b491ab4340ef62d", "url_en": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-06/fed-s-kashkari-says-rate-cut-may-be-appropriate-in-near-term", "text_zh_available": true }, { "date": "2025-06-27", "title_en": "Tariff Impacts: Delayed or Avoided? | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis", "title_zh": "关税影响：是延迟还是避免？", "category": "演讲", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2025/tariff-impacts-delayed-or-avoided", "one_line": "贸易战尚未在数据中显现，两个可能解释：影响存在滞后，或企业正寻找规避关税的方法（或两者兼有）", "one_line_source": "comment_zh first ‣ quote", "summary_first_sentence": "全文主旨：本文讨论了关税对经济的影响，探讨了关税效应是否滞后或企业是否在寻找规避关税的方法。", "bullet_count": 6, "on_employment": "文中官员提到，尽管失业率维持在4.2%，劳动力市场有所降温，但整体经济活动仍然稳健，显示出对高关税公告的韧性。虽然情绪指标接近COVID-19疫情期间的低点，潜在需求仍然表现较好，表明就业市场的基本面相对强劲。此外，官员强调，企业在应对关税时表现出谨慎，不愿意将成本增加转嫁给客户，尤其是在未来可能达成贸易协议的情况下。这些因素表明，尽管存在不确定性，劳动力市场的影响尚未显现，但仍有潜在的韧性。", "on_inflation": "本文中，美联储官员就通胀的主要观点包括：\n\n1. 关税影响的滞后性：官员指出，贸易战的经济影响尚未在数据中显现，可能是因为影响存在滞后，或者企业正在寻找规避关税的方法。\n\n2. 价格传递的谨慎：许多企业不愿意将关税转嫁给客户，尤其是在贸易协议可能很快达成的情况下。如果关税保持高位，企业表示将不得不将价格上涨传递给客户。\n\n3. 核心商品通胀的上升：尽管核心商品通胀略有上升，但总体上关税对价格、经济活动和劳动力市场的影响仍然有限。\n\n4. 货币政策的反应：官员强调货币政策应对经济实际经历的冲击作出反应，而不仅仅是关注关税的公告。他们认为，了解通胀的真实情况和经济数据是非常重要的。\n\n5. 未来的政策预期：官员预计可能在2025年进行两次降息，但强调在没有更清晰的数据前不应预设宽松的政策路径。", "words_en": 1026, "id": "467a8fffd055408e91d21b092375ddda", "article_id": "467a8fffd055408e91d21b092375ddda", "url_en": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2025/tariff-impacts-delayed-or-avoided", "text_zh_available": false }, { "date": "2025-06-27", "title_en": "Fed's Kashkari says more clarity needed on tariffs' impact on inflation", "title_zh": "美联储卡什卡里称需更明确关税对通胀的影响", "category": "讨论", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/feds-kashkari-says-more-clarity-needed-tariffs-impact-inflation-2025-06-27/", "one_line": "就业市场仍佳，并未急转直下。", "one_line_source": "comment_zh first ‣ quote", "summary_first_sentence": "本文主要讨论了美联储卡什卡里对关税对通胀影响的看法，强调在对其影响有更清晰的了解之前需谨慎决策。", "bullet_count": 4, "on_employment": "美联储官员卡什卡里在讲话中提到，尽管面临关税对通胀的影响，但就业市场依然表现良好，并未出现急剧恶化。他强调，在对关税相关通胀有更清晰的理解之前，美联储需要采取谨慎的态度，慢慢推进政策。他指出，许多企业暂时不打算将成本增加转嫁给消费者，尤其是在关税可能回落的情况下。", "on_inflation": "美联储官员卡什卡里在讲话中提到，尽管近期美国的通胀数据表现“相当积极”，但关税对通胀的影响可能只是延迟显现。他强调，在对关税相关通胀有更清晰的了解之前，美联储需要谨慎行事。卡什卡里指出，许多企业暂时不愿意将成本增加转嫁给消费者，因为他们担心关税回落后可能会损害客户关系。他还提到，产品通常会找到绕过关税障碍的方法，这可能会限制关税对通胀的总体影响。总的来说，他认为仍需更好地评估关税对经济的影响，目前尚不清楚。", "words_en": 256, "id": "e8ddc2c574264d748df1e39caf910129", "article_id": "e8ddc2c574264d748df1e39caf910129", "url_en": "https://www.reuters.com/business/feds-kashkari-says-more-clarity-needed-tariffs-impact-inflation-2025-06-27/", "text_zh_available": false }, { "date": "2025-06-25", "title_en": "Fed Needs More Clarity on Tariff Impact on Prices, Kashkari Says", "title_zh": "卡什卡里表示，美联储需要更清楚了解关税对价格的影响", "category": "讨论", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-24/kashkari-says-fed-needs-more-clarity-on-tariff-impact-on-prices", "one_line": "过去两三个月的通胀数据相当积极，表明通缩路径正在按计划进行", "one_line_source": "comment_zh first ‣ quote", "summary_first_sentence": "全文主旨：美联储在调整政策前需要更清楚地了解关税对价格的影响，尽管近期通胀数据表现积极。", "bullet_count": 3, "on_employment": "在文中，美联储官员尼尔·卡什卡里提到，尽管近期的通胀数据表现良好，但在调整货币政策之前，需要更清楚地了解关税对价格的影响。他强调，过去两三个月的通胀数据表明通缩路径正在按计划进行，但尚不明显关税的全部影响是否已显现。此外，文中并未具体提及就业和劳动力市场的观点，但整体讨论围绕经济状况及货币政策调整的谨慎态度。", "on_inflation": "美联储官员尼尔·卡什卡里指出，最近两三个月的通胀数据表现积极，表明通缩路径如预期发展。然而，他强调尚未看到关税的全部影响，因此在对政策进行重大调整之前，央行需要更清楚地了解关税对价格的实际影响。尽管部分官员支持今年降息，但美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，美联储并不急于降息，正在观察经济对新政策的反应。", "words_en": 247, "id": "f8eebc7787e841cdb6a4d7f2b3162b5d", "article_id": "f8eebc7787e841cdb6a4d7f2b3162b5d", "url_en": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-24/kashkari-says-fed-needs-more-clarity-on-tariff-impact-on-prices", "text_zh_available": false }, { "date": "2025-06-06", "title_en": "Kashkari Says Fed Well Positioned to Wait for Tariff Impact", "title_zh": "卡什卡利称美联储已做好等待关税影响的充分准备", "category": "采访", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-04/kashkari-says-fed-well-positioned-to-wait-for-tariff-impact", "one_line": "目前为止经济似乎仍有韧性，现在是获取数据的时候，必须静观其变", "one_line_source": "comment_zh first ‣ quote", "summary_first_sentence": "美联储行长卡什卡利表示，央行将在观察关税政策对经济的影响后再决定是否调整利率。", "bullet_count": 3, "on_employment": "在采访中，美联储明尼阿波利斯银行行长尼尔·卡什卡利指出，商业投资因关税不确定性而回落，成为美国经济的一大隐忧。他提到，劳动力市场已经出现了一些疲软迹象，一些企业正在考虑裁员的不同方式。此外，卡什卡利还强调，关税的不确定性持续时间越长，负面影响就越大。", "on_inflation": "美联储明尼阿波利斯银行行长尼尔·卡什卡利表示，美国经济似乎仍有韧性，因此现在是获取数据、观察关税政策对经济影响的时机。他提到，关税不确定性导致商业投资的回落，这对美国经济构成了悬而未决的问题，并指出随着关税不确定性的持续，负面影响会越来越大。此外，卡什卡利提到一些企业正在考虑裁员的不同方式，并指出劳动力市场已经出现了一些放缓的迹象。", "words_en": 192, "id": "56608c87abd048d98c282457acdc5704", "article_id": "56608c87abd048d98c282457acdc5704", "url_en": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-04/kashkari-says-fed-well-positioned-to-wait-for-tariff-impact", "text_zh_available": false }, { "date": "2025-05-28", "title_en": "Neel Kashkari remarks at the Bank of Japan’s Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies conference", "title_zh": "尼尔·卡什卡里在日本银行货币经济研究所会议上的讲话", "category": "演讲", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/speeches/2025/neel-kashkari-remarks-at-the-bank-of-japans-institute-for-monetary-and-economic-studies-conference", "one_line": "联储内部关于是否\"忽视\"关税的通胀影响，存在健康的辩论", "one_line_source": "comment_zh first ‣ quote", "summary_first_sentence": "全文主旨：尼尔·卡什卡里在日本银行会议上讨论了在不确定经济环境中进行货币政策的挑战，强调政策制定者需谨慎应对关税和通胀等复杂问题。", "bullet_count": 5, "on_employment": "Neel Kashkari emphasizes the significant impact of the labor market on monetary policy decisions. He notes that during the COVID-19 pandemic, although inflation began to rise following the economic reopening, the labor market still showed considerable slack, with an unemployment rate of 6% even as inflation crossed the 2% target. This led many policymakers, including Kashkari, to initially view the inflation increase as transitory, given the existing labor market conditions. He highlights the importance of supporting the labor market while also addressing inflation, particularly in the context of recent shocks to the economy. Kashkari ultimately argues for a cautious approach, advocating for time to gather information before making policy decisions that could adversely affect the labor market.", "on_inflation": "Neel Kashkari discusses the challenges of monetary policy in an uncertain economy, emphasizing the inflationary impact of tariffs. He notes that there is an ongoing debate within the Federal Reserve about whether to \"look through\" the inflation caused by new tariffs. Some argue that tariffs create a temporary inflation shock that should not lead to immediate policy rate increases, allowing economic activity to continue. In contrast, others caution that prolonged high inflation could undermine long-term inflation expectations, advocating for maintaining current policy rates until there is more clarity on tariffs' effects. Kashkari concludes that, in light of significant shocks, policymakers should take time to gather information to make informed decisions, rather than rushing into potentially harmful actions.", "words_en": 1280, "id": "0eda689845854d0d95e9d4c9fe5720a7", "article_id": "0eda689845854d0d95e9d4c9fe5720a7", "url_en": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/speeches/2025/neel-kashkari-remarks-at-the-bank-of-japans-institute-for-monetary-and-economic-studies-conference", "text_zh_available": false }, { "date": "2025-05-27", "title_en": "Kashkari Says ‘Not Sure’ on Interest Rate Moves by September", "title_zh": "卡什卡里表示对 9 月份的利率变动\"不确定\"", "category": "采访", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-26/kashkari-says-not-sure-on-interest-rate-moves-by-september", "one_line": "不确定9月时前景是否会足够清晰，关注数据和贸易谈判", "one_line_source": "comment_zh first ‣ quote", "summary_first_sentence": "本文主要讨论了美联储官员尼尔·卡什卡里对9月份利率变动的不确定性，强调了美国贸易和移民政策的变化对经济前景的影响。", "bullet_count": 2, "on_employment": "The document does not directly address employment and the labor market. Instead, it focuses on the uncertainty surrounding interest rate movements due to changes in US trade and immigration policy. Neel Kashkari emphasizes that major shifts in these areas are creating challenges for the Federal Reserve in determining monetary policy, which indirectly affects economic activity and investment plans. The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and their impact on the economy could influence labor market conditions, but specific viewpoints on employment are not explicitly mentioned in the text.", "on_inflation": "Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, expressed concerns about inflation due to significant changes in U.S. trade and immigration policies. He noted that widespread tariffs are likely to increase U.S. inflation while simultaneously hindering growth, as businesses scale back investments and households reduce spending. Kashkari mentioned that this uncertainty surrounding economic activity poses challenges for the Federal Reserve in determining appropriate monetary policy, as they are unsure of the long-term implications of these policies.", "words_en": 500, "id": "e473fb0ffa994a9296bdbe27704fb207", "article_id": "e473fb0ffa994a9296bdbe27704fb207", "url_en": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-26/kashkari-says-not-sure-on-interest-rate-moves-by-september", "text_zh_available": false }, { "date": "2025-05-20", "title_en": "A fireside chat with Neel Kashkari at the Minnesota Young American Leaders Program", "title_zh": "尼尔·卡什卡里在明尼苏达州年轻美国领袖项目中的炉边谈话", "category": "讨论", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/speeches/2025/Neel-Kashkari-at-Minnesota-Young-American-Leaders-Program", "one_line": "我们将继续观望，直到获得更多信息。", "one_line_source": "comment_zh first ‣ quote", "summary_first_sentence": "本次炉边谈话的主要内容是尼尔·卡什卡里讨论了明尼苏达联邦储备银行的角色、地区经济的现状及其面临的挑战，特别是关于劳动力市场、教育差距及移民对经济增长的重要性。", "bullet_count": 1, "on_employment": "Neel Kashkari, the president of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, emphasized the importance of a competitive labor market and its role in addressing the skills gap in the workforce. He noted that businesses often struggle to find workers due to outdated screening practices, but a tight labor market compels them to reevaluate these practices, leading to more inclusive hiring. Kashkari highlighted the significant challenge of matching available workers, especially those without the necessary skills, to job openings. He pointed out the necessity for collaboration between businesses, educational institutions, and government to create tailored programs that address these gaps. Additionally, he mentioned that the current economic environment, marked by low unemployment rates and rising wages, can serve as a powerful motivator for businesses to adapt and seek out potential workers within their communities.", "on_inflation": "在与明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长尼尔·卡什卡里的交谈中，他提到通货膨胀是美联储的主要关注点之一。卡什卡里强调，过去几年经历了非常高的通货膨胀，联邦储备的职责是将其降至目标水平。他指出，尽管通货膨胀有所下降，但仍未达到理想的2%。他提到，当前的贸易不确定性和关税问题对经济造成了挑战，使得通货膨胀的监测和管理变得更加复杂。卡什卡里表示，关注经济基本面和市场动态对于制定合适的利率政策至关重要，以确保经济在稳定的轨道上运行。", "words_en": 11114, "id": "ba1f2cb55dd944c887c03954a176bc8f", "article_id": "ba1f2cb55dd944c887c03954a176bc8f", "url_en": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/speeches/2025/Neel-Kashkari-at-Minnesota-Young-American-Leaders-Program", "text_zh_available": true }, { "date": "2025-04-25", "title_en": "Fed's Kashkari nervous that trade policy uncertainty will lead to layoffs", "title_zh": "美联储的卡什卡里担心贸易政策不确定性将导致裁员", "category": "讨论", "url": null, "one_line": "一些企业表示如果不确定性持续，他们可能计划裁员", "one_line_source": "comment_zh first ‣ quote", "summary_first_sentence": "全文主旨：美联储的卡什卡里对美国贸易政策的不确定性感到担忧，认为这可能导致大规模裁员。", "bullet_count": 1, "on_employment": "美联储明尼阿波利斯银行行长尼尔·卡什卡里对美国贸易政策的极度不确定性感到“紧张”，他担心这可能导致大规模裁员。尽管目前他只听说一些企业开始计划应对措施，但他强调，如果贸易争端得以解决，将有助于缓解企业和民众面临的不确定性。他指出，大家同时感到紧张可能会拖累经济，严重影响经济增长。", "on_inflation": "在本文中，明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长尼尔·卡什卡里对美国贸易政策的不确定性表示担忧，并指出这可能导致大规模裁员。他强调，解决与主要贸易伙伴的争端是美国经济最乐观的前景，这将缓解企业和公众面临的极大不确定性。他提到，信心问题是关键，大家如果同时感到紧张，可能会严重拖累经济增长。", "words_en": 183, "id": "1e081cc90b148029bfe8f3a4d2fec1bc", "article_id": "1e081cc90b148029bfe8f3a4d2fec1bc", "url_en": null, "text_zh_available": false }, { "date": "2025-04-23", "title_en": "Kashkari Says Fed Must Ensure Tariff Inflation Not Persistent", "title_zh": "卡什卡里表示美联储必须确保关税引发的通胀不会持续存在", "category": "讨论", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-22/kashkari-says-fed-must-ensure-tariff-inflation-not-persistent", "one_line": "现在还无法有信心地判断：关税对通胀的一次性影响，还是长期影响？", "one_line_source": "comment_zh first ‣ quote", "summary_first_sentence": "尼尔·卡什卡里表示，美联储的职责是确保关税不会引发持续的通胀问题。", "bullet_count": 5, "on_employment": "美联储明尼阿波利斯银行行长尼尔·卡什卡里表示，他将密切关注劳动力市场的数据，以观察当前的不确定状态是否导致企业收缩并减少员工数量。他提到目前没有大规模裁员的迹象，这表明就业市场仍然相对稳定。同时，他强调，美联储的职责是确保关税不会引发长期的通胀问题，暗示当前经济状况的复杂性对货币政策的影响。", "on_inflation": "美联储明尼阿波利斯银行行长尼尔·卡什卡里表示，中央银行的职责是确保关税不会引发持续的通胀问题。他强调，目前尚不清楚关税对通胀的影响是一次性的还是长期的。卡什卡里指出，关税可能会在一定程度上导致通胀，但他认为现在判断利率走势还为时过早。他还提到，中央银行的独立性是美国经济成功的重要基础，并表示将密切关注劳动力市场数据，以评估不确定性是否导致企业裁员。", "words_en": 278, "id": "ee50a77b2c8b41dc9ff55e299fbd0c9a", "article_id": "ee50a77b2c8b41dc9ff55e299fbd0c9a", "url_en": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-22/kashkari-says-fed-must-ensure-tariff-inflation-not-persistent", "text_zh_available": false }, { "date": "2025-04-14", "title_en": "Transcript: Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari on \"Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan,\" April 13, 2025", "title_zh": "2025 年 4 月 13 日，明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长尼尔·卡什卡里在《与玛格丽特·布伦南面对面》上的讲话记录", "category": "采访", "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/neel-kashkari-minneapolis-fed-president-face-the-nation-transcript-04-13-2025/", "one_line": "我们的工作是控制通货膨胀，以防止利率上升得更高", "one_line_source": "comment_zh first ‣ quote", "summary_first_sentence": "本文主要讨论了明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长尼尔·卡什卡里在《与玛格丽特·布伦南面对面》节目中对美国经济、贸易和通货膨胀的看法。", "bullet_count": 3, "on_employment": "Neel Kashkari, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, emphasized the importance of maintaining a strong job market during his interview. He noted that the economy was fundamentally healthy in the first quarter of 2025, with a strong job market. However, he also recognized that a significant hit to confidence, comparable to the onset of COVID-19 in March 2020, could have substantial effects on the economy. He highlighted the need to monitor economic data closely and acknowledged that if businesses and consumers become overly nervous and pull back simultaneously, it could lead to an economic downturn. Kashkari stressed that restoring confidence quickly, particularly regarding trade uncertainties with major partners, is crucial for mitigating risks to the job market and overall economic stability.", "on_inflation": "Neel Kashkari, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, emphasized the importance of controlling inflation to prevent interest rates from rising further. He noted that tariffs inherently contribute to inflation by increasing prices, and it's crucial for the Fed to ensure that these price increases are one-time adjustments rather than ongoing issues. Kashkari also highlighted that the Fed's role is to keep inflation expectations anchored, especially amid uncertainties in trade negotiations and potential economic downturns.", "words_en": 1487, "id": "95c4b413cdba40aeaac092d8e2d7d785", "article_id": "95c4b413cdba40aeaac092d8e2d7d785", "url_en": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/neel-kashkari-minneapolis-fed-president-face-the-nation-transcript-04-13-2025/", "text_zh_available": false }, { "date": "2025-04-10", "title_en": "Potential Implications of Announced Tariffs for Monetary Policy | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis", "title_zh": "已宣布关税对货币政策的潜在影响", "category": "演讲", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2025/potential-implications-of-announced-tariffs-for-monetary-policy", "one_line": "信心的冲击可能对经济产生比关税本身更大的影响", "one_line_source": "comment_zh first ‣ quote", "summary_first_sentence": "本文讨论了已宣布的关税对货币政策的潜在影响，强调了信心冲击可能带来的经济后果。", "bullet_count": 7, "on_employment": "The Federal Reserve official discusses how the recent tariff announcements may impact employment and the labor market. They express concern that the shock to confidence from tariffs could lead to reduced spending and investment, potentially resulting in a slowdown in economic activity and even a recession, which would affect employment levels. Additionally, they note that while tariffs typically lead to higher inflation and reduced purchasing power, the increased uncertainty around tariffs raises the bar for cutting interest rates, even in the face of economic weakening and rising unemployment. The implication is that maintaining long-run inflation expectations is crucial, as allowing them to become unanchored could exacerbate unemployment and economic instability.", "on_inflation": "美联储官员在讲话中指出，近期宣布的关税可能对通货膨胀产生显著影响。首先，关税的增加将导致消费者和企业支付的价格上升，从而在短期内推动通货膨胀上升。其次，尽管这种消费税的影响可能是一次性的，官员强调，保持长期通货膨胀预期的锚定是首要任务，因为失去锚定的风险显著增加。此外，由于关税导致的经济不确定性，投资需求可能下降，从而进一步影响通货膨胀和货币政策的走向。整体而言，尽管面临经济放缓和潜在的失业率上升，降低利率的门槛因关税的影响而提高。", "words_en": 1001, "id": "d79ffc88d69341d8abdd99b68eca6bdf", "article_id": "d79ffc88d69341d8abdd99b68eca6bdf", "url_en": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2025/potential-implications-of-announced-tariffs-for-monetary-policy", "text_zh_available": true }, { "date": "2025-03-26", "title_en": "Fed Listens: A conversation with Neel Kashkari at the Detroit Lakes Chamber Economic Summit | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis", "title_zh": "美联储倾听：在底特律湖区商会经济峰会上与 Neel Kashkari 的对话 | 明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行", "category": "讨论", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/speeches/2025/Neel-Kashkari-at-Detroit-Lakes-Chamber-Economic-Summit", "one_line": "与许多其他国家相比，我们已经相对隔离于全球贸易体系", "one_line_source": "comment_zh first ‣ quote", "summary_first_sentence": "主旨：尼尔·卡什卡里在底特律湖商会经济峰会上讨论了经济形势、劳动市场和通货膨胀，强调了不确定性对经济信心的影响。", "bullet_count": 3, "on_employment": "Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, highlighted that the economy in the Detroit Lakes area is doing relatively well, with many job openings still available. However, he noted a decrease in the heat of the labor market compared to a year or two ago. There is a sense of nervousness regarding the future, particularly about whether the current economic strength will continue. Kashkari emphasized the importance of understanding local labor market conditions and encouraged open conversations to gather feedback on employment challenges. He acknowledged that availability of workers remains a perennial challenge, especially in smaller communities, and that this issue may be exacerbated by housing affordability problems. Overall, while the job market is strong, uncertainties around future economic conditions could impact confidence and hiring.", "on_inflation": "Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, emphasized that inflation currently runs between 2.5% and 3% annually, which is above the Fed's target of 2%. He highlighted the challenge of maintaining maximum employment while also reducing inflation. Kashkari noted that the recent trend of declining inflation, despite a strong job market, was unexpected, as higher interest rates typically slow economic activity and can raise unemployment. He expressed the importance of addressing uncertainty in trade and its potential impact on consumer and business confidence, which could exacerbate economic challenges if not resolved quickly. Overall, he indicated that more work is needed to bring inflation down to the target level while keeping the economy strong.", "words_en": 7203, "id": "48ecc3127dfe41bfb036a2941517c3a6", "article_id": "48ecc3127dfe41bfb036a2941517c3a6", "url_en": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/speeches/2025/Neel-Kashkari-at-Detroit-Lakes-Chamber-Economic-Summit", "text_zh_available": false }, { "date": "2025-02-07", "title_en": "Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari expects lower interest rates later this year", "title_zh": "明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行的卡什卡里预计今年晚些时候利率将下降", "category": "采访", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/07/minneapolis-feds-kashkari-expects-lower-interest-rates-later-this-year.html", "one_line": null, "one_line_source": null, "summary_first_sentence": "本文主要阐述了明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长尼尔·卡什卡里预计今年晚些时候利率将下降的观点。", "bullet_count": 0, "on_employment": "美联储官员尼尔·卡什卡里强调，当前失业率为4.0%，显示劳动力市场依然强劲。他指出，尽管市场状况比一两年前冷却，但企业仍面临寻找合适员工的挑战。他对经济的整体反馈持乐观态度，认为经济处于良好状态，且希望在继续降低通胀的同时保持这一状态。", "on_inflation": "美联储官员尼尔·卡什卡里在采访中强调了几个关于通胀的主要观点。他预计如果经济数据保持良好，利率将在今年降低。他对通胀能否回落至美联储2%的目标表示乐观，同时指出，当前的失业率为4.0%，表明劳动力市场依然强劲。卡什卡里提到，虽然当前的总体通胀率为2.6%，核心通胀率为2.8%，仍高于目标，但他相信随着住房相关数据（尤其是租金）的改善，通胀将逐步回落。他还表示，美联储致力于将通胀降至2%，并指出财政政策的不确定性可能影响通胀前景。他对未来的经济形势保持观察态度，认为在获得更多信息之前不应做出过早的政策决定。", "words_en": 2578, "id": "e58fa89906af49c19142d0149b1047c0", "article_id": "e58fa89906af49c19142d0149b1047c0", "url_en": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/07/minneapolis-feds-kashkari-expects-lower-interest-rates-later-this-year.html", "text_zh_available": true } ], "stance_track": { "by_speech": [ { "date": "2023-08-01", "on_employment": "明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长尼尔·卡什卡里在采访中表示，尽管美联储的货币紧缩政策可能导致一些失业和经济增长放缓，但美国经济表现出“弹性”。他预计失业率可能会上升至4%，尽管当前失业率维持在3.6%的历史低位。卡什卡里指出，虽然经济将可能放缓，但希望在不造成大量失业或负增长的情况下，成功结束当前的通胀周期。他强调，当前的经济恢复力令人惊讶，并表示美联储会继续关注数据，以决定是否需要进一步加息。", "on_inflation": "明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡里表示，美国的通胀前景“相当乐观”，尽管美联储采取的激进货币紧缩措施可能导致一些失业和经济增长放缓。他强调，经济表现出“弹性”，预计失业率可能会升至4%，但仍将避免明显的衰退。卡什卡里指出，尽管核心物价上涨低于预期，但仍高于美联储的2%通胀目标，因此如有必要，央行将考虑进一步加息。", "article_id": "0fba7764d5924e64ada2e924a84cb236", "title": "卡什卡里称通胀前景“积极”，预计失业", "category": "采访", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-30/kashkari-calls-inflation-outlook-positive-expects-job-losses#xj4y7vzkg" }, { "date": "2023-08-16", "on_employment": "美联储官员卡什卡里指出，尽管美联储采取了激进的加息措施以抑制通胀，经济依然表现出强劲的韧性，劳动力市场保持强劲。他对经济的韧性感到惊讶，并提到在这样的背景下，面临的一个双刃剑问题是是否已经采取了足够的措施来将通胀率降低到2%的目标。", "on_inflation": "美联储明尼阿波利斯分行行长尼尔·卡什卡里表示，尽管美国的通胀正在减轻，但仍高于政策制定者所能接受的水平。他指出，经济表现出很强的韧性，劳动力市场依然强劲。卡什卡里希望看到通胀有确凿证据回落至2%，并表示在决定是否需要进一步加息之前，应该多花一些时间收集更多数据。尽管近期数据显示通胀有所放缓，但仍高于美联储设定的年度目标2%。他还强调，虽然加息的步伐可能还未结束，但也看到了积极迹象，未来的政策将谨慎评估数据。", "article_id": "c958ae56f63546388d934fe392639193", "title": "卡什卡里表示通胀率过高，但美联储看到了进展", "category": "采访", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-15/kashkari-says-fed-sees-inflation-progress-but-rate-is-too-high#xj4y7vzkg" }, { "date": "2023-09-23", "on_employment": "在与百思买首席执行官科里·巴里进行的对话中，明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡里谈到了就业和劳动力市场的主要观点。他强调了当前经济形势下劳动力市场的强劲表现，并指出尽管通货膨胀压力依然存在，但就业机会的增加和失业率的下降表明经济正在复苏。此外，卡什卡里提到，需要关注劳动力市场的长期健康和可持续性，以确保经济的持续增长。", "on_inflation": "在明尼苏达州经济俱乐部的对话中，明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡里与百思买首席执行官科里·巴里讨论了通胀问题。卡什卡里强调了当前通胀水平对经济的影响，并指出中央银行需要采取有效的货币政策来应对通胀压力，以确保经济的稳定与可持续发展。", "article_id": "e3c1492b1f10428c98583bc518d69620", "title": "尼尔·卡什卡里 (Neel Kashkari) 在明尼苏达州经济俱乐部", "category": "采访", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/speeches/2023/Neel-Kashkari-at-the-Economic-Club-of-Minnesota" }, { "date": "2023-09-26", "on_employment": "Neel Kashkari, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, expressed that officials have been surprised by the resilience of the economy. He emphasized that while there has been good progress in tackling inflation, it remains too high. Kashkari indicated the need for convincing evidence that inflation is moving towards the Fed's 2% target. He also mentioned that decisions regarding interest rates would be based on incoming data, which has recently shown signs of a cooling labor market and inflation.", "on_inflation": "Neel Kashkari, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, expressed that he anticipates one more interest rate hike this year, especially if the economy remains unexpectedly strong. He noted that the current resilience of the economy has surprised officials and emphasized the need to maintain a tighter monetary policy for a longer period to control inflation. Kashkari reiterated the Fed's commitment to reducing inflation to its target of 2%, acknowledging that while there has been progress, inflation remains too high. He also mentioned the possibility of cutting rates in the future if inflation decreases rapidly, which would effectively raise real interest rates. Overall, Kashkari's views reflect a cautious approach to monetary policy amid evolving economic conditions.", "article_id": "2ab83e978b0742058c8535644d57a7b3", "title": "在宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院的问答", "category": "采访", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/speeches/2023/neel-kashkari-qa-at-university-of-pennsylvanias-wharton-school" }, { "date": "2023-09-27", "on_employment": "The official emphasizes that while there has been substantial progress in reducing inflation, the employment and labor market remain robust. The healthy labor market is seen as a positive indicator, suggesting that the economy is resilient and that consumer confidence has returned. In the context of potential policy decisions, the official notes that if inflation dynamics prove to be more entrenched, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may need to raise rates further to maintain this healthy labor market while achieving inflation targets. However, the current economic activity and consumer spending continue to exceed expectations, raising questions about how tight monetary policy truly is at present.", "on_inflation": "In a recent update, Neel Kashkari, President and CEO of the Minneapolis Fed, discussed the current state of inflation and monetary policy. He noted that inflation had initially risen but has significantly decreased due to the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) policy tightening. While current annual inflation remains above the target of 2%, there has been notable progress. He highlighted that market expectations for near-term inflation have returned to pre-pandemic levels, indicating optimism in the inflation fight.\n\nKashkari emphasized the importance of long-term real rates in evaluating monetary policy, stating that the current stance is contractionary compared to pre-pandemic levels. He raised concerns about whether the current tightening is sufficient to bring inflation back to target, suggesting that a soft landing scenario has a 60% probability, where inflation could return to target if policy is maintained long enough. Alternatively, he presented a risk of a high-pressure equilibrium, where persistent inflation might necessitate further rate increases, assigning this scenario a 40% probability.\n\nHe concluded by acknowledging the uncertainties in the economy and the potential risks from external shocks, reaffirming the FOMC's commitment to achieving its dual mandate goals.", "article_id": "d02ebe494dc54a5487ad69433430821c", "title": "政策收紧很多。够了吗？ （第二次更新）", "category": "文章", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2023/policy-has-tightened-a-lot-is-it-enough-a-second-update" }, { "date": "2023-09-28", "on_employment": "The document primarily focuses on monetary policy discussions by Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Fed, rather than directly addressing employment and the labor market. However, it implies that economic factors such as a potential government shutdown or prolonged strikes could slow the economy, which may influence the Fed's actions regarding interest rates. Kashkari suggests that if these risks impact the economy negatively, the Fed may not need to take aggressive measures to control inflation, thereby indirectly linking labor market conditions to monetary policy decisions.", "on_inflation": "美联储官员尼尔·卡什卡里在采访中提出了对通胀的几个主要观点。他表示，如果美国经济面临风险，如政府停摆或汽车工人罢工，可能会导致经济放缓，从而使美联储不必采取激进的货币政策来控制通胀。他提到，美联储预计在2024年会保持利率平稳，并且在某些情况下，可能需要在进一步加息之前观察经济的反应。卡什卡里认为，经济基本面可能比预期更强劲，因此可能需要更高的利率路径来将通胀率降至2%。他强调，美联储需要谨慎处理货币政策，以应对通胀和经济增长之间的平衡。", "article_id": "fc8f38fdf16a43b1bcc8a916d3f21ebc", "title": "卡什卡里表示，如果出现停摆等风险，美联储可能会减少行动 - 彭博社", "category": "采访", "url": null }, { "date": "2023-10-11", "on_employment": "在迈诺特州立大学的市政厅会议上，尼尔·卡什卡里（Neel Kashkari）讨论了就业和劳动力市场的情况。他指出，长期收益率的上升可能对降低通胀起到一定作用，但对美联储利率前景的影响尚不明确。这表明，对于当前的就业市场和经济形势，美联储仍在评估各种因素，并考虑如何调整货币政策以应对挑战。", "on_inflation": "尼尔·卡什卡里（Neel Kashkari）在迈诺特州立大学的发言中提到，长期收益率的上升可能在降低通胀方面发挥一定作用。他的发言表明，收益率对美联储利率前景的影响仍不明确。", "article_id": "c94263a0f228411683ecf62d7cbd5187", "title": "尼尔·卡什卡里（Neel Kashkari）在迈诺特州立大学 |明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行", "category": "演讲", "url": null }, { "date": "2023-10-18", "on_employment": "The document does not provide specific details about Neel Kashkari's views on employment and the labor market. It primarily focuses on his participation in a fireside chat at the University of Minnesota regarding the annual lecture, moderated by university officials. Therefore, a summary of his main points on employment and the labor market cannot be extracted from the provided content.", "on_inflation": "The document does not explicitly mention Neel Kashkari's views on inflation or monetary policy. It primarily provides information about an event where he participated in a fireside chat at the University of Minnesota, moderated by medical professionals. Therefore, no specific points regarding inflation from Kashkari can be summarized from the content provided.", "article_id": "454a088203e447559fd0e43db34ba2b0", "title": "尼尔·卡什卡里 (Neel Kashkari)，明尼苏达大学", "category": "讨论", "url": null }, { "date": "2023-11-04", "on_employment": "美联储官员尼尔·卡什卡里表示，尽管上个月的就业放缓对中央银行是一个好消息，但他不想对单月数据产生过度反应并停止加息。他指出，劳动市场的放缓是他们所期待的，有助于经济恢复平衡。然而，卡什卡里强调，现在判断是否需要进一步加息仍为时尚早，官员们需要继续关注数据，特别是通胀数据的变化。美国劳工统计局的数据显示，招聘人数从9月份的297,000人降至10月份的150,000人，反映出劳动市场的降温。尽管当前利率保持在22年来的高点5.25%至5.5%之间，但一些政策制定者对通胀能否回归美联储2%的目标表示怀疑。", "on_inflation": "美联储官员尼尔·卡什卡里表示，尽管就业市场放缓是个好消息，但他不想对单一的就业报告反应过度，认为加息的结束尚未确定。他强调，尽管就业放缓有助于经济平衡，但政策制定者需要继续关注数据，尤其是通胀数据，因为一些官员对通胀是否朝着美联储2%的目标回归表示怀疑。", "article_id": "a25d5abf52004caa8d306fd06ce95f3d", "title": "美联储尼尔·卡什卡里表示现在说加息已经完成还为时过早 - 彭博社", "category": "讨论", "url": null }, { "date": "2023-11-07", "on_employment": "在采访中，美联储官员尼尔·卡什卡里提到就业和劳动力市场的主要观点是，尽管劳动力市场出现降温现象，招聘人数有所减少，但这并不足以影响对通胀的看法。他表示，通胀数据的积极迹象需要更多的数据来确认，以评估经济的演变。最近的数据显示，上个月招聘人数从9月份的297,000降至150,000，反映出劳动市场的普遍降温。他强调，过度收紧货币政策的风险比采取过少的货币政策更可取，并对通胀可能再次上升表示担忧。", "on_inflation": "美联储明尼阿波利斯银行行长尼尔·卡什卡里表示，现在宣布战胜通胀还为时过早，尽管有积极的物价压力缓解的迹象。他强调，三个月的良好通胀数据不足以支持这一声明，需要更多的数据来评估经济的发展。他认为，过度收紧货币政策的风险比采取过少的货币政策要好，并表达了对通胀再次上升的担忧。卡什卡里还表示，政策制定者在上周的会议上决定将利率维持在5.25%至5.5%的范围内，并指出，现在还不适合明确决定是否需要进一步加息。", "article_id": "ad690499c3754977a57b5b6048c9bd23", "title": "美联储卡什卡里称宣布通胀胜利还为时过早，需要更多数据 - 彭博社", "category": "采访", "url": null }, { "date": "2024-02-05", "on_employment": "The official discusses the strength of the labor market, noting that the unemployment rate remains historically low at 3.7 percent. This resilience in employment contrasts with the typical expectation that tight monetary policy leads to weak economic growth and a rising unemployment rate. The strong labor market indicates that, despite falling inflation, the economy is not experiencing the negative impacts often associated with tight monetary policy. The official suggests that the current economic conditions allow for a reassessment of monetary policy without the immediate risk of derailing the economic recovery.", "on_inflation": "In the speech, the Federal Reserve official emphasizes that while inflation has fallen rapidly, economic growth remains strong, with a resilient labor market and low unemployment rates. The official suggests that the recent decline in inflation is not solely due to tight monetary policy but is also influenced by supply-side factors that have helped balance supply and demand. The official questions the extent to which current monetary policy is tight, arguing that it may not be as restrictive as previously assumed, especially in light of a low neutral rate environment. This perspective allows for the possibility of reassessing monetary policy decisions before making cuts to the federal funds rate, reducing the risk of hindering economic recovery.", "article_id": "abbd7141d70d4bc98aab4a313f00b44b", "title": "政策收紧很多，收紧到什么程度？", "category": "演讲", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2024/policy-has-tightened-a-lot-how-tight-is-it" }, { "date": "2024-02-07", "on_employment": "在这次问答中，尼尔·卡沙里讨论了就业和劳动力市场的几个关键点。他指出，尽管近期通货膨胀有所下降，劳动力市场依然强劲，全国失业率保持在3.7%。卡沙里提到，经济的复苏和劳动力市场的活跃使得通货膨胀得以快速回落，尽管通常情况下，加息会导致失业率上升。他强调，当前的就业市场结构性问题在于年轻人口的减少，许多年轻人选择离开州或国家，而这对小城市和农村地区尤其具有挑战性。他还提到，移民政策的调整对于满足经济需求至关重要，强调需要解决的关键问题是如何在经济发展中保持足够的人力资源。", "on_inflation": "在与大曼凯托增长活动的问答中，尼尔·卡沙里强调了通胀的两个主要目标：首先是维持2%的稳定价格，这在过去几年未能实现，通胀率显著高于这一目标；其次是实现最大就业，确保尽可能多的美国人能够获得稳定的工作并为经济作出贡献。他指出，尽管通胀水平有所下降，但劳动力市场依然强劲，失业率维持在3.7%左右。他提到，过去六到九个月内，通胀下降的速度快于预期，部分原因是供应链的恢复及服务经济的重启。然而，卡沙里对未来的通胀预测持谨慎乐观态度，并表示需要继续跟踪经济数据，以便及时调整货币政策。此外，他提到，国家的债务水平与经济增长之间存在不确定性，政府的财政政策和美联储的货币政策之间的分界线也是一个重要的讨论点。", "article_id": "5091e7dedec2476bb24a3fc473679a39", "title": "在大曼凯托增长活动中的问答", "category": "讨论", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/speeches/2024/neel-kashkari-qa-at-greater-mankato-growth-event" }, { "date": "2024-02-08", "on_employment": "美联储明尼阿波利斯银行行长Neel Kashkari表示，劳动力市场将决定降息的速度。他指出，如果就业市场保持强劲，这将使美联储能够灵活地缓慢采取行动。他认为在降息之前，官员们希望看到几个月的通胀数据，并且对未来的降息预期持谨慎态度。", "on_inflation": "美联储明尼阿波利斯银行行长Neel Kashkari表示，在降息之前，官员们希望看到“几个月”的通胀数据。他认为降息两到三次在2024年可能是合适的。Kashkari指出，他们并不是在寻找更好的通胀数据，而是希望看到额外的通胀数据保持在约2%的水平。他还提到，劳动力市场将决定美联储降息的速度，如果就业市场保持强劲，将为央行提供灵活性，可以慢慢采取行动。", "article_id": "a2d271864b44493098752eaafeb01a9b", "title": "美联储卡什卡里认为 2024 年降息两到三次是适当的", "category": "采访", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-07/fed-s-kashkari-sees-two-to-three-rate-cuts-as-appropriate-in-24" }, { "date": "2024-02-13", "on_employment": "In the conversation, Neel Kashkari emphasizes the need for economic opportunity as a solution to systemic racism and inequality, particularly regarding employment. He discusses the importance of creating middle-class jobs, especially for Black Americans who often lack college degrees. Kashkari shares insights from his experience at IBM, advocating for a \"skills-first\" hiring approach that prioritizes skills over formal education. He believes this shift can help bridge the gap in the labor market and provide access to opportunities for those who may not have had traditional educational paths, ultimately benefiting the economy as a whole.", "on_inflation": "在与吉尼·罗梅蒂的对话中，尼尔·卡什卡里讨论了通货膨胀及其对经济的影响。他强调，通货膨胀是一个主要关注的问题，尤其是在政策制定时，需要确保可持续的经济增长和稳定的价格水平。卡什卡里指出，必须采取适当的货币政策措施来应对通货膨胀，以维护美国经济的稳定和公众的信任。", "article_id": "aa95d31b27904536b88982e6ca616e97", "title": "尼尔·卡什卡里 (Neel Kashkari) 在明尼苏达州经济俱乐部与吉尼·罗梅蒂 (Ginni Rometty) 对话", "category": "讨论", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/speeches/2024/Neel-Kashkari-in-conversation-with-Ginni-Rometty-at-the-Economic-Club-of-Minnesota" }, { "date": "2024-02-23", "on_employment": "Neel Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed, highlighted several key points regarding employment and the labor market. He noted that the labor supply has rebounded significantly, influenced by factors such as immigration and Americans' need to work amid rising prices. Although businesses still find it challenging to hire, the situation has improved compared to a year or two ago. The unemployment rate remains low, and wages are increasing, making them attractive for workers. However, Kashkari pointed out that there are long-term structural issues in the region, indicating a persistent shortage of workers.", "on_inflation": "Neel Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed, discusses the current inflation situation, noting the mixed signals in the economy and the difficulty in having confidence about the future. He highlights that while inflation has decreased from over 9% to 3.1%, many prices remain high, causing public dissatisfaction. Kashkari suggests that the Fed should maintain higher interest rates for an extended period to ensure a stable return to the 2% inflation target. He expresses caution in declaring victory over inflation, emphasizing the importance of gathering more data before making any decisions about lowering rates. Additionally, he reflects on the unexpected resilience of the economy and the role of labor supply dynamics during the recovery from the pandemic.", "article_id": "d1aa706a3dc2480499e22622630a62c2", "title": "明尼阿波利斯联储卡什卡利谈为何经济不确定性仍然如此之大", "category": "采访", "url": "https://www.startribune.com/federal-reserve-neel-kashkari-minneapolis-interest-rates-inflation-economy/600345262/" }, { "date": "2024-03-07", "on_employment": "在采访中，明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡里强调，劳动力市场和经济增长的持续强劲表明，高利率可能对经济的抑制作用有限。他指出，如果就业形势良好、企业表现出色且通货膨胀回落，那么没有必要采取进一步的行动。卡什卡里表示，他非常关注即将公布的通胀数据，并希望看到通货膨胀继续降低，但即使物价增长再次加速，加息也不会是美联储的首要计划。", "on_inflation": "美联储明尼阿波利斯分行行长尼尔·卡什卡里强调，未来的降息决策将依赖于即将公布的通胀数据。他表示，虽然他预计2024年将降息两次，甚至可能只降息一次，但目前尚未确定最终的预测。他提到，从12月份的数据来看，没有显示出需要更多降息的迹象。卡什卡里希望看到通胀持续下降，并表示即使物价增长加速，加息也不会是美联储的首选方案。他认为，如果经济持续强劲，劳动市场表现良好，企业状况良好，通胀回落，那么不需要采取进一步措施。", "article_id": "f8804d1557a0408c84d80bd41c58fc6f", "title": "美联储卡什卡里预计 2024 年将降息两次，可能只会降息一次", "category": "采访", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-06/fed-s-kashkari-sees-two-rate-cuts-in-2024-potentially-just-one" }, { "date": "2024-04-05", "on_employment": "美联储明尼阿波利斯银行行长尼尔·卡什卡里在讨论货币政策时强调了就业和劳动力市场的积极表现。他提到，如果经济运行良好、人们有工作、企业表现出色，并且通胀正在回落，那么就没有必要采取降息措施。他认为，在观察到通胀数据和经济强劲的背景下，保持利率不变是合理的，尤其是在劳动市场健康的情况下。", "on_inflation": "美联储明尼阿波利斯银行行长尼尔·卡什卡里表示，如果通胀进展停滞，尤其是在经济保持强劲的情况下，今年可能不需要降息。他提到，如果通胀数据继续横盘整理，这将使他质疑是否仍需进行降息。他对1月和2月的通胀数据表示关注，并强调需要看到更多价格进展，以确保物价朝着美联储2%的目标回落，才能降低借贷成本。他还指出，让通胀数据指导利率决策的重要性。", "article_id": "d3b612ef302647c3b5e3718e7378dc91", "title": "美联储卡什卡里提出今年不降息的可能性", "category": "采访", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-04/fed-s-kashkari-floats-possibility-of-no-rate-cuts-this-year" }, { "date": "2024-04-09", "on_employment": "在尼尔·卡什卡里的讲话中，他强调了当前劳动力市场的强劲表现，并指出尽管蒙大拿州的失业率同比上升，但整体经济仍在向好发展。他提到，许多企业仍在努力寻找工人，尽管过去一年劳动力市场的紧张程度有所减缓。他还提到，蒙大拿州始终面临着结构性劳动力短缺的问题，表明需要更多工人以维持经济的持续增长。此外，卡什卡里指出，缺乏经济适用房和育儿服务的负担能力对劳动力市场也带来了挑战，强调了住房供应不足对经济的影响。总的来说，他认为，尽管面临挑战，蒙大拿州的劳动力市场依然是有利于工人的。", "on_inflation": "在采访中，明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长尼尔·卡什卡里谈到通胀的主要观点包括：他对通胀的快速上升感到惊讶，认为多个因素同时影响了经济，包括新冠疫情后的供应链中断和俄罗斯对乌克兰的入侵。他指出，通胀的高峰并不是由劳动力市场驱动的，而是由供给因素引起的。为了应对通胀，美联储希望将通胀率恢复到2%的目标，这是一个既能抑制通胀又能支撑经济增长的合理水平。他还强调，通胀的预期对经济行为有自我实现的影响，因此需要保持公众对美联储的信心。此外，卡什卡里提到，虽然高利率是短期现象以抑制需求，但最终通胀回落后，利率将回归到较低的正常水平。", "article_id": "6a49bbcfc1e044698f6950a4644fdd54", "title": "蒙大拿大学尼尔·卡什卡里市政厅", "category": "采访", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/speeches/2024/Neel-Kashkari-town-hall-at-the-University-of-Montana" }, { "date": "2024-04-19", "on_employment": "在采访中，明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡里强调，尽管抵押贷款利率上升至超过7%，但住房市场依然表现出韧性。他指出，尽管单户住宅市场有所放缓，但多户住宅市场和公寓建筑市场依然强劲。卡什卡里认为，过去十年由于未能满足人口增长的住房需求，需求仍在持续，因此住房市场表现良好。他还提到，尽管经济强劲，GDP增长和消费者支出持续增长，但美联储仍需关注劳动力市场和通胀数据，以决定货币政策的未来走向。", "on_inflation": "Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari emphasized that the Federal Reserve needs to achieve greater confidence that inflation is declining before considering interest rate cuts, potentially delaying such actions until after 2024. He stated the importance of patience and waiting for concrete data to confirm that inflation is moving back down to the 2% target. Kashkari acknowledged the surprising resilience of the housing market despite rising mortgage rates and indicated that the current economic strength allows for a cautious approach in monetary policy decisions.", "article_id": "f5058f39b08247acba91abd223a9b33b", "title": "卡什卡里称美联储“有可能”全年维持利率稳定", "category": "采访", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-18/kashkari-says-fed-could-potentially-hold-rates-steady-all-year" }, { "date": "2024-05-08", "on_employment": "Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Fed, discussed the current state of the labor market during an interview at the Milken Institute Global Conference. He emphasized the importance of the dual mandate of the Federal Reserve, which includes maintaining stable prices and maximizing employment. Kashkari acknowledged that while the jobs report showed some softness, the labor market overall remained resilient. He noted that if the labor market were to weaken significantly, it could prompt discussions about cutting interest rates. However, he emphasized that there is no clear threshold for what would constitute a significant enough decline in employment to warrant such action. Kashkari also expressed concerns about the potential impact of monetary policy on the labor market, highlighting the need to balance inflation control with the preservation of a strong labor market.", "on_inflation": "在与《纽约时报》记者珍娜·斯米莱克的对话中，美联储卡什卡里主席讨论了美国经济和货币政策的现状。他指出，尽管在去年下半年出现了快速的通货紧缩，但当前的经济增长超出预期，通货膨胀水平在约3%徘徊。卡什卡里表示，货币政策对需求的下行压力可能没有预期的那么强，尤其是在房地产市场上，尽管抵押贷款利率上升，但市场仍表现出韧性。他认为，最有可能的情况是利率将在较长一段时间内保持不变，直到对通货膨胀的走势有更清晰的了解。他强调，保持对2%通货膨胀目标的承诺对美联储的信誉至关重要，并指出需要看到多个积极的通货膨胀数据，以确认通货膨胀正在向目标回落。整体而言，卡什卡里对未来的经济和通货膨胀走势持谨慎乐观态度，同时关注可能的风险和不确定性。", "article_id": "3a77ae00d5cb4dbab50a208ddcbe0893", "title": "在 2024 年米尔肯研究所全球会议上与 Neel Kashkari 的对话", "category": "采访", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/speeches/2024/a-conversation-with-neel-kashkari-at-the-2024-milken-institute-global-conference-" }, { "date": "2024-05-08", "on_employment": "The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recognizes that the labor market remains strong, with the unemployment rate at a historically low level of 3.9 percent. Despite tightening monetary policy, the robust performance of the labor market suggests resilience. However, ongoing inflation trends raise concerns about the effectiveness of the current policy stance and its ability to achieve dual mandate goals. The official emphasizes the need for careful assessment of the neutral policy rate, as misperceptions could affect future monetary decisions and economic outcomes.", "on_inflation": "The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has significantly tightened monetary policy compared to both the pre-pandemic period and previous tightening cycles. Despite this, inflation has stalled, raising questions about whether the disinflationary process is ongoing or if inflation is stabilizing around 3%. The resilience of the housing market, which traditionally reacts strongly to interest rate changes, suggests that the current monetary policy might not be as restrictive as expected. The official expresses uncertainty about the neutral policy rate, indicating that policymakers may be misperceiving its level, which complicates communication and policy decisions moving forward.", "article_id": "6553fe050cb640f68d7cb16e965d94c7", "title": "政策收紧很多。有多紧？ （更新）", "category": "文章", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2024/policy-has-tightened-a-lot-how-tight-is-it-an-update" }, { "date": "2024-05-16", "on_employment": "本文中并未具体提及美联储官员关于就业和劳动力市场的观点。主要讨论集中在货币政策的限制性、利率维持现状的理由以及对经济和通胀走向的观察。卡什卡里提到，他对经济的弹性感到意外，预计当前政策利率和抵押贷款利率会对经济产生更大的影响，但目前情况似乎显示出经济的韧性。", "on_inflation": "美联储主席尼尔·卡什卡里在2024年威利斯顿盆地石油会议上表示，货币政策对经济的下行压力存在很大的不确定性。他认为，央行可能需要在当前利率水平上维持一段时间，以便更好地了解潜在的通胀走势。卡什卡里提到，尽管当前的政策利率已经是23年来的最高点，但经济似乎比他预期的更具韧性。因此，他认为这表明现有利率政策的影响可能不像预期的那样强烈。他还关注房地产市场及其对通胀的影响，并指出，当前的抵押贷款利率和政策利率对经济的影响未如预期显著。", "article_id": "c3e4b3cab3674a898c4a9813665bfee1", "title": "在 2024 年威利斯顿盆地石油会议上参加有关经济的炉边谈话", "category": "讨论", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/speeches/2024/fireside-chat-with-meel-kashkari-at-williston-basin-conference" }, { "date": "2024-05-28", "on_employment": "在采访中，美联储官员尼尔·卡什卡里强调，当前美国的劳动力市场依然紧张，失业率为3.9%。他指出，尽管市场竞争依然激烈，但与一两年前相比，劳动力市场的压力有所减轻。他希望看到劳动力市场进一步放缓，以及工资增长的适度回落，以便对经济的服务行业恢复正常充满信心。他认为，劳动力市场的健康状况与服务业的表现密切相关，当前的强劲就业市场为美联储在评估通胀趋势时提供了更多的灵活性。", "on_inflation": "美联储官员尼尔·卡什卡里表示，在降息之前，需等待通胀取得显著进展。他提到，如果通胀未能进一步下降，央行甚至可能考虑加息。尽管市场对降息的预期存在差异，卡什卡里强调需要更多的积极通胀数据来建立信心。他认为当前的通胀数据并未显著改善，劳动力市场仍然强劲，但通胀是否会持续回落到2%目标仍不确定。他指出，经济复苏中的政府支出可能会影响通胀进程，同时他对美联储可能采取的政策持开放态度，但坚持认为在达到2%目标之前不应改变目标。", "article_id": "6007d0123a034240b655346d0768c79e", "title": "美联储卡什卡里希望在降息之前看到“更多个月”的积极通胀数据", "category": "采访", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/28/feds-kashkari-wants-to-see-many-more-months-of-positive-inflation-data-before-a-rate-cut.html" }, { "date": "2024-05-28", "on_employment": "美联储官员在讲话中强调了就业和劳动力市场的几个关键观点。卡什卡里指出，劳动力市场仍然相当强劲，尽管面临一些经济疲软的迹象，例如信用卡和汽车贷款的拖欠率上升。他认为，强劲的劳动力市场和持续的工资增长对经济具有支持作用。卡什卡里还提到，尽管通胀仍然高企，但并不一定需要经济增长放缓或失业率上升才能将通胀率降低到目标水平。他表示，货币政策可能会对经济产生影响，但并不需要看到劳动力市场的实质性疲软。同时，诺特总统也强调，通胀的持续性在很大程度上是由工资驱动的，而服务业的工资水平与生产率增长之间的关系也是需要关注的部分。", "on_inflation": "美联储官员在讲话中强调了以下关于通胀的主要观点：\n\n1. 加息的可能性：尽管加息的可能性较低，但美联储并未完全排除进一步加息的选项，尤其是在通胀未回落到2%目标之前。\n\n2. 经济数据的重要性：官员们表示，当前依赖于数据来制定政策，因为以往的模型未能有效预测通胀的高峰和迅速的通货紧缩。\n\n3. 通胀的来源：大部分通胀的缓解被认为是由于供应链的正常化，而非货币政策对需求的限制。\n\n4. 工资增长与通胀：官员们指出，服务行业的通胀在很大程度上是由工资驱动的，当前工资增长仍高于与2%通胀目标相一致的水平。\n\n5. 未来的政策方向：官员们认为，尽管面临经济不确定性和通胀压力，货币政策的目标仍是将通胀率恢复到2%。在此过程中，美联储将保持灵活，等待更多数据以做出决策。", "article_id": "94c5e389ea914babb79e52d0503f0716", "title": "美联储卡什卡里表示不完全排除加息的可能性", "category": "讨论", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-28/fed-s-kashkari-says-rate-hike-not-entirely-ruled-out" }, { "date": "2024-06-03", "on_employment": "Neel Kashkari, the president of the Minneapolis Fed, emphasized that the U.S. labor market is strong and the economy is performing well. He noted that many people are unhappy with the current economic situation, largely due to high inflation, and mentioned that Americans have a deep-seated dislike for inflation. Kashkari's interactions with small businesses and labor groups revealed that while individuals are accustomed to coping with recessions, high inflation uniquely affects everyone, leaving no one to lean on for support as they all face similar challenges.", "on_inflation": "Neel Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed, emphasizes the importance of maintaining interest rates on hold for an extended period to ensure that inflation is under control. He warns that cutting rates too early could jeopardize the foundations of US economic prosperity. Kashkari points out that despite the strong US economy and a declining inflation rate, many Americans remain deeply unhappy, largely due to the high inflation they have experienced. He believes that the current economic strength allows policymakers the time to gather more evidence before making decisions about interest rates. Kashkari also highlights the visceral dislike Americans have for inflation, suggesting that some would prefer a recession to avoid rising prices. He expresses caution against risking the anchoring of inflation expectations, which has been crucial for the economic prosperity the US has enjoyed over the past 40 years.", "article_id": "8c50ab2263424b76ad4219fa27059504", "title": "美联储官员称利率应在“较长”时间内保持不变", "category": "采访", "url": "https://www.ft.com/content/cbb9b949-1262-4d72-9ee7-6035c3e022d2" }, { "date": "2024-06-17", "on_employment": "Neel Kashkari, the president of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, expressed that while the job market remains strong, there may be a potential for job cooling in the future. He noted that the job market has performed better than expected despite rapid interest rate increases. Businesses in his region are still hiring and competing for workers, although it is not as overheated as it was a year or two ago. Kashkari acknowledged the possibility of jobless claims increasing but hopes for modest cooling that could lead to a more balanced economy. He emphasized the importance of monitoring the labor market as part of the broader economic landscape.", "on_inflation": "Neel Kashkari, the president of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, emphasized the need for more evidence to confirm that inflation is on track to return to the 2% target. He noted that while the job market remains strong, the U.S. economic fundamentals are more robust compared to other advanced economies facing declining inflation and economic weakness. Kashkari acknowledged the possibility of job market cooling but expressed hope for a modest adjustment to maintain economic balance. He considered the prediction of a rate cut later in the year as reasonable, depending on forthcoming data. Kashkari also pointed out that the inflation experienced over the past few years was largely driven by supply disruptions, and while the situation is improving, ongoing attention to those struggling financially is necessary. He concluded that the best approach for the Federal Reserve is to focus on reducing inflation to target levels, which will ultimately help stabilize mortgage rates and improve housing affordability.", "article_id": "1a5e1dbf0edd4a829fdc7503a1cca4ad", "title": "文字记录：明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡里 (Neel Kashkari) 在“面对国家”接受采访", "category": "采访", "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/neel-kashkari-minneapolis-federal-reserve-president-face-the-nation-transcript-06-16-2024/" }, { "date": "2024-08-20", "on_employment": "美联储官员尼尔·卡什卡里在采访中表示，由于劳动力市场疲软的可能性上升，他对在下次会议上降息持开放态度。他指出，失业率从年初的3.7%上升至7月份的4.3%，这表明经济放缓的风险加大。卡什卡里强调，如果没有看到劳动力市场明显疲软的证据，他不会考虑降息。然而，尽管裁员率保持较低水平，他认为降息幅度不应超过25个基点，因为失业救济申请人数并未显著恶化。他还提到，政策风险的平衡已更多地转向劳动力市场，而非通胀方面。", "on_inflation": "美联储官员卡什卡里对通胀的主要观点包括：他认为在通胀方面的风险平衡已经发生变化，劳动力市场的疲软可能性上升，使得讨论在九月份降息变得合适。他提到，尽管通胀正在取得进展，但仍然需要谨慎对待利率的调整。他表示，在没有看到劳动力市场显著恶化的证据之前，没有理由大幅降息。他强调，政策的紧缩程度尚不明确，但风险平衡更倾向于劳动力市场，而非通胀，这表明他对通胀风险的警惕性有所增加。", "article_id": "facb0f8e6c3a4a2bb6d1a7aa57271a50", "title": "独家：美联储卡什卡里称就业市场疲软应为九月降息打开大门", "category": "采访", "url": "https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp500-nasdaq-live-08-19-2024/card/fed-s-kashkari-weaker-job-market-should-open-the-door-to-a-september-cut-Hk1iDUIR0gmOdRVlZgHx" }, { "date": "2024-09-23", "on_employment": "The official discusses the current state of the labor market, noting that there has been a softening from the previously tight conditions. The unemployment rate has risen to 4.2% from exceptionally low levels, and job growth has slowed significantly. Wage growth has also declined, indicating easing in the labor market. The official expresses concern that the balance of risks has shifted from higher inflation to the potential for increased unemployment, which could threaten the goal of maximum employment. The overall assessment is that the labor market's weakening justifies the recent decision to lower the federal funds rate.", "on_inflation": "The Federal Reserve official emphasizes that substantial progress has been made in reducing inflation toward the 2% target, suggesting that the balance of risks has shifted from higher inflation to the risk of a further weakening labor market. Despite mixed signals regarding the economy's strength, the official believes that the current monetary policy remains tight, even after a recent 50 basis points rate cut. The ongoing softening of labor market indicators and the potential for higher unemployment could jeopardize maximum employment, prompting the support for the rate cut. The official stresses that future policy will depend on incoming data regarding economic activity, the labor market, and inflation.", "article_id": "05946843471748c19c535b43e0d12ef6", "title": "为什么我支持上周的降息", "category": "文章", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2024/why-i-supported-cutting-rates-last-week" }, { "date": "2024-09-23", "on_employment": "美联储官员在谈及就业和劳动力市场时，强调了以下几点：\n\n1. 尼尔·卡什卡里（Neel Kashkari）：\n- 表示当前劳动力市场依然强劲健康，但希望保持这种状态。他提到，最近的通胀数据表现积极，显示经济正在朝着2%的目标回归。\n- 卡什卡里指出，尽管降息行动是必要的，但美联储不会轻言任务已完成，仍将关注短期内可能出现的风险。\n\n2. 拉斐尔·博斯蒂克（Raphael Bostic）：\n- 预计美联储将积极采取行动，恢复中性利率。他表示，通胀的进展和劳动力市场的降温比他之前的预期要快得多。\n- 博斯蒂克认为，周三的降息使美联储在政策上处于更有利的位置，能够根据通胀和劳动力市场的变化灵活调整政策。\n\n3. 奥斯坦·古尔斯比（Austan Goolsbee）：\n- 提到美联储的双重使命，包括低通胀和充分就业。他认为，考虑到经济条件的整体趋势，未来可能会有更多的降息。\n- 古尔斯比强调，随着对回到2%的信心增强，美联储需要关注就业风险，而不仅仅是通胀风险。\n\n整体来看，美联储官员们一致认为，保持强劲的劳动力市场是当前货币政策的重要目标，并计划根据经济数据的变化灵活调整利率政策。", "on_inflation": "美联储官员在谈及通胀时，明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡里表示，尽管最近降息了50个基点，但预计降息的步伐将会放缓。他认为当前的利率仍处于“净紧张状态”，因此在未来可能采取更小幅度的降息措施，除非数据有重大变化。卡什卡里强调，近期的通胀数据表现积极，显示出向2%的目标回归的可能性。此外，他提到保持强劲的劳动力市场是重要的，且不会轻易宣称已完成任务。亚特兰大联储主席拉斐尔·博斯蒂克也指出，通胀的进展和劳动力市场的降温速度超出了他的预期，认为美联储可能会更快恢复中性利率。芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦·古尔斯比则认为，降息将持续，因低通胀和充分就业之间的风险正在更好地平衡。", "article_id": "167d9bf4afc74c0bac188b8dc96746d9", "title": "明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡里预计未来降息步伐将放缓", "category": "采访", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/23/minneapolis-fed-president-kashkari-sees-slower-pace-of-rate-cuts-ahead.html" }, { "date": "2024-10-07", "on_employment": "Neel Kashkari, the President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, emphasized the resilience of the job market during the Q&A session at the Bank Holding Company Association Fall Seminar. He noted that recent employment reports exceeded expectations, with the unemployment rate hovering around 4%. Kashkari highlighted that despite the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes, the labor market has remained strong, which is contrary to historical trends where such actions typically lead to economic slowdowns and increased unemployment. He expressed hope for the continued strength of the job market while acknowledging the inherent risks, including the potential for a weakening labor market or a resurgence in inflation. He encouraged open dialogue with business leaders to better understand the economic landscape and inform future monetary policy decisions.", "on_inflation": "Neel Kashkari, the President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, emphasized the resilience of the economy despite rising interest rates aimed at controlling inflation. He acknowledged that while the inflation rate had surprised many by its persistence, it has begun to decline. Kashkari highlighted the strong labor market, which has not shown signs of weakening typically associated with aggressive rate hikes. He noted that the balance of risks has shifted from high inflation towards potentially higher unemployment rates. Kashkari expressed cautious optimism, indicating that while there are uncertainties regarding inflation and economic conditions, current data suggests a positive trend towards achieving the Federal Reserve's inflation target of 2%. He also mentioned the importance of ongoing discussions with business leaders to better understand regional economic conditions.", "article_id": "36d2654408974f8295cae55efdaa8645", "title": "Neel Kashkari 在银行控股公司协会秋季研讨会上的问答", "category": "讨论", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/speeches/2024/neel-kashkari-qa-at-the-bank-holding-company-association-fall-seminar" }, { "date": "2024-10-15", "on_employment": "美联储官员尼尔·卡什卡里表示，美国劳动力市场依然强劲，最新的就业报告提供了鼓舞人心的信号，表明“劳动力迅速疲软似乎不会迫在眉睫”。他指出，尽管通胀已经“显著下降，但仍略高于目标”，因此未来的政策路径将受到实际经济、通胀和劳动力市场数据的驱动。", "on_inflation": "美联储官员尼尔·卡什卡里表示，通胀已经“从峰值大幅下降，但仍略高于我们的目标”。他指出，尽管劳动力市场依然强劲，但未来的货币政策将主要依据实际经济、通胀和劳动力市场的数据。他认为，进一步“适度”的降息似乎是合适的，并提到每次会议降息25个基点是一个“合理的起点”。", "article_id": "6b4f62c5f7c9445fb8b7d28fb8779ac8", "title": "美联储卡什卡里预计未来几个季度将“进一步适度”降息", "category": null, "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-14/fed-s-kashkari-says-further-modest-cuts-apt-in-coming-quarters" }, { "date": "2024-10-21", "on_employment": "在市政厅会议中，尼尔·卡什卡里强调了美国劳动力市场的韧性，尽管面临一些疲软迹象，特别是在技术部门。他提到，尽管部分行业经历了裁员，整体上劳动力市场依然强劲，建筑行业甚至在高利率环境中也保持了就业增长。此外，他指出，低收入工人受到通货膨胀的影响最大，特别是在食品和能源支出方面。然而，近几年最低工资的显著上涨有助于这些工人的收入恢复。卡什卡里还提到，尽管经济保持强劲，但仍存在一些压力点，尤其是低信用评分借款人的逾期情况在上升，这显示出经济的某些领域仍然面临挑战。", "on_inflation": "美联储主席尼尔·卡什卡里在与齐珀瓦瀑布地区商会的市政厅会议中，讨论了通货膨胀的几个主要观点。卡什卡里强调，虽然希望避免经济衰退，但劳动力市场疲软的迹象可能会导致更快的降息。他指出，通货膨胀的原因是多方面的，包括供给链中断、刺激措施过多和全球经济动态。他认为，维持通胀预期在2%的目标是至关重要的，并表示低收入群体对通货膨胀的影响最大，因为他们在食品和能源上的支出占比高。尽管整体经济表现强劲，但对低收入工人来说，通货膨胀仍然是一个重大挑战。卡什卡里还提到，在疫情后，货币政策需要适应经济复苏的动态，并关注劳动力市场的变化。", "article_id": "5a88a45079d747729acce24ef8b0d565", "title": "尼尔·卡什卡里 (Neel Kashkari) 在齐珀瓦瀑布地区商会的市政厅", "category": "讨论", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/speeches/2024/Town-hall-with-Neel-Kashkari-at-the-Chippewa-Falls-Area-Chamber-of-Commerce" }, { "date": "2024-11-11", "on_employment": "美联储官员卡什卡里强调，当前经济形势和劳动力市场的动态是政策决策的重要考虑因素。他指出，尽管劳动力市场正在降温，但降温的速度没有几个月前担心的那么快。他认为，政策制定者应该专注于经济的长期健康，尤其是生产力的提升和经济增长。他还提到，两党的多数领导人都希望通胀降低，并保持强劲的劳动力市场，这表明大家对经济工作的关注是一致的。", "on_inflation": "美联储官员尼尔·卡什卡利表示，强劲的经济和较高的生产率增长可能导致美联储降息幅度低于预期。他提到，政策制定者需要在评估通胀和降息决策时，先观察新政府和国会的政策是否会加剧通胀。他强调，未来的经济增长和生产力是决定降息次数的关键因素。此外，卡什卡利指出，尽管经济持续增长和通胀上升，劳动力市场降温的速度没有预期的那么快，重新当选的特朗普政府可能带来新的通胀风险。整体来看，他认为美联储将继续专注于经济工作，力求降低通胀和保持强劲的劳动力市场。", "article_id": "7910a07a61cd44059edf156dcdd6cc6c", "title": "美联储卡什卡里表示经济走强可能意味着降息次数减少", "category": "采访", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-09/fed-s-kashkari-says-stronger-economy-could-mean-fewer-rate-cuts" }, { "date": "2024-11-13", "on_employment": "在采访中，美联储官员尼尔·卡什卡里提到，尽管经济强劲，但劳动力市场并没有显著升温。他认为，从现在到12月之间，劳动力市场不太可能发生实质性变化，时间上已经不够。他还指出，近期的招聘放缓主要受到飓风和劳工罢工的影响，尽管消费者支出依然强劲。", "on_inflation": "美联储明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长尼尔·卡什卡里在采访中强调，通胀是影响货币政策的重要因素。他指出，只有在通胀出现意外上升的情况下，政策制定者才会考虑暂停降息。他提到，尽管经济强劲，但通胀尚未完全降至美联储2%的目标，尤其是住房市场的高通胀可能需要一到两年才能达到目标。此外，卡什卡里认为中性利率可能较高，这意味着未来降息的空间可能会比预期小。", "article_id": "17fd8c5cf14647d6a89c6028dca65a22", "title": "美联储卡什卡里称只有通胀才能使12月降息脱轨", "category": "采访", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-12/fed-s-kashkari-says-only-inflation-could-derail-december-cut" }, { "date": "2024-11-14", "on_employment": "美联储官员尼尔·卡什卡里强调，劳动力市场状况良好，并希望能够保持这一状态。他指出，尽管当前通胀数据朝着央行的2%目标发展，但在做出任何货币政策决定之前，还需要分析未来几周的数据。他认为，经济的韧性使他对中性利率的理解产生了疑问，并表示如果生产率持续提高，中性利率可能比之前预期的要高。他还指出，未来的政策变化可能会给通胀带来压力，但在接下来的会议之前，劳动力市场的显著升温可能不太可能发生。", "on_inflation": "美联储明尼阿波利斯银行行长尼尔·卡什卡里在谈及通胀时强调，最新的消费者价格报告显示通胀正朝着央行2%的目标下降。他对通胀的轨迹表示信心，但指出在做出任何决策之前需要等待一个月的数据分析。他提到一个关键的基本通胀指标连续第三个月上涨0.3%，而整体消费者物价指数同比上涨2.6%。卡什卡里还表示，经济表现的韧性让他质疑过去一两年的中性利率，并指出，如果生产率持续提高，中性利率可能会比之前认为的更高。此外，他提到一些经济学家预计当选总统特朗普的政策可能会增加通胀压力。", "article_id": "87eb1aca49a447aab072f10cd031380a", "title": "美联储卡什卡里称通胀数据正朝着正确方向发展", "category": "采访", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-13/fed-s-kashkari-says-inflation-data-moving-in-right-direction" }, { "date": "2024-11-26", "on_employment": "美联储官员Neel Kashkari指出，当前的劳动力市场仍然强劲，经济在面对利率上升时展现出韧性。他认为，政策利率相对较高的情况下，经济增长依然持续，这表明中性利率可能高于之前的水平，且货币政策对经济的下行压力可能没有预期的那么大。Kashkari强调，理解下行压力和通胀的路径是他目前关注的重点。", "on_inflation": "美联储官员Neel Kashkari在采访中提到，考虑在12月会议上再次降息是合理的。他指出，尽管目前的利率水平相对较高，但经济的韧性表明，中性利率可能比以往更高，这引发了有关货币政策对需求的影响的问题。他认为，通胀正在缓慢下降，尽管当前的通胀率仍高于目标2%。Kashkari强调，住房通胀仍然较高，但新租金通胀的回落可能会导致整体住房通胀的下降。最终目标是将通胀率回落至2%的目标水平。", "article_id": "e213b7c43b8640f39d0906de80d4532b", "title": "美联储卡什卡里表示考虑下个月降息是合理的", "category": "采访", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-25/fed-s-kashkari-says-reasonable-to-consider-rate-cut-next-month" }, { "date": "2025-02-07", "on_employment": "美联储官员尼尔·卡什卡里强调，当前失业率为4.0%，显示劳动力市场依然强劲。他指出，尽管市场状况比一两年前冷却，但企业仍面临寻找合适员工的挑战。他对经济的整体反馈持乐观态度，认为经济处于良好状态，且希望在继续降低通胀的同时保持这一状态。", "on_inflation": "美联储官员尼尔·卡什卡里在采访中强调了几个关于通胀的主要观点。他预计如果经济数据保持良好，利率将在今年降低。他对通胀能否回落至美联储2%的目标表示乐观，同时指出，当前的失业率为4.0%，表明劳动力市场依然强劲。卡什卡里提到，虽然当前的总体通胀率为2.6%，核心通胀率为2.8%，仍高于目标，但他相信随着住房相关数据（尤其是租金）的改善，通胀将逐步回落。他还表示，美联储致力于将通胀降至2%，并指出财政政策的不确定性可能影响通胀前景。他对未来的经济形势保持观察态度，认为在获得更多信息之前不应做出过早的政策决定。", "article_id": "e58fa89906af49c19142d0149b1047c0", "title": "明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行的卡什卡里预计今年晚些时候利率将下降", "category": "采访", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/07/minneapolis-feds-kashkari-expects-lower-interest-rates-later-this-year.html" }, { "date": "2025-03-26", "on_employment": "Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, highlighted that the economy in the Detroit Lakes area is doing relatively well, with many job openings still available. However, he noted a decrease in the heat of the labor market compared to a year or two ago. There is a sense of nervousness regarding the future, particularly about whether the current economic strength will continue. Kashkari emphasized the importance of understanding local labor market conditions and encouraged open conversations to gather feedback on employment challenges. He acknowledged that availability of workers remains a perennial challenge, especially in smaller communities, and that this issue may be exacerbated by housing affordability problems. Overall, while the job market is strong, uncertainties around future economic conditions could impact confidence and hiring.", "on_inflation": "Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, emphasized that inflation currently runs between 2.5% and 3% annually, which is above the Fed's target of 2%. He highlighted the challenge of maintaining maximum employment while also reducing inflation. Kashkari noted that the recent trend of declining inflation, despite a strong job market, was unexpected, as higher interest rates typically slow economic activity and can raise unemployment. He expressed the importance of addressing uncertainty in trade and its potential impact on consumer and business confidence, which could exacerbate economic challenges if not resolved quickly. Overall, he indicated that more work is needed to bring inflation down to the target level while keeping the economy strong.", "article_id": "48ecc3127dfe41bfb036a2941517c3a6", "title": "美联储倾听：在底特律湖区商会经济峰会上与 Neel Kashkari 的对话 | 明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行", "category": "讨论", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/speeches/2025/Neel-Kashkari-at-Detroit-Lakes-Chamber-Economic-Summit" }, { "date": "2025-04-10", "on_employment": "The Federal Reserve official discusses how the recent tariff announcements may impact employment and the labor market. They express concern that the shock to confidence from tariffs could lead to reduced spending and investment, potentially resulting in a slowdown in economic activity and even a recession, which would affect employment levels. Additionally, they note that while tariffs typically lead to higher inflation and reduced purchasing power, the increased uncertainty around tariffs raises the bar for cutting interest rates, even in the face of economic weakening and rising unemployment. The implication is that maintaining long-run inflation expectations is crucial, as allowing them to become unanchored could exacerbate unemployment and economic instability.", "on_inflation": "美联储官员在讲话中指出，近期宣布的关税可能对通货膨胀产生显著影响。首先，关税的增加将导致消费者和企业支付的价格上升，从而在短期内推动通货膨胀上升。其次，尽管这种消费税的影响可能是一次性的，官员强调，保持长期通货膨胀预期的锚定是首要任务，因为失去锚定的风险显著增加。此外，由于关税导致的经济不确定性，投资需求可能下降，从而进一步影响通货膨胀和货币政策的走向。整体而言，尽管面临经济放缓和潜在的失业率上升，降低利率的门槛因关税的影响而提高。", "article_id": "d79ffc88d69341d8abdd99b68eca6bdf", "title": "已宣布关税对货币政策的潜在影响", "category": "演讲", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2025/potential-implications-of-announced-tariffs-for-monetary-policy" }, { "date": "2025-04-14", "on_employment": "Neel Kashkari, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, emphasized the importance of maintaining a strong job market during his interview. He noted that the economy was fundamentally healthy in the first quarter of 2025, with a strong job market. However, he also recognized that a significant hit to confidence, comparable to the onset of COVID-19 in March 2020, could have substantial effects on the economy. He highlighted the need to monitor economic data closely and acknowledged that if businesses and consumers become overly nervous and pull back simultaneously, it could lead to an economic downturn. Kashkari stressed that restoring confidence quickly, particularly regarding trade uncertainties with major partners, is crucial for mitigating risks to the job market and overall economic stability.", "on_inflation": "Neel Kashkari, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, emphasized the importance of controlling inflation to prevent interest rates from rising further. He noted that tariffs inherently contribute to inflation by increasing prices, and it's crucial for the Fed to ensure that these price increases are one-time adjustments rather than ongoing issues. Kashkari also highlighted that the Fed's role is to keep inflation expectations anchored, especially amid uncertainties in trade negotiations and potential economic downturns.", "article_id": "95c4b413cdba40aeaac092d8e2d7d785", "title": "2025 年 4 月 13 日，明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长尼尔·卡什卡里在《与玛格丽特·布伦南面对面》上的讲话记录", "category": "采访", "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/neel-kashkari-minneapolis-fed-president-face-the-nation-transcript-04-13-2025/" }, { "date": "2025-04-23", "on_employment": "美联储明尼阿波利斯银行行长尼尔·卡什卡里表示，他将密切关注劳动力市场的数据，以观察当前的不确定状态是否导致企业收缩并减少员工数量。他提到目前没有大规模裁员的迹象，这表明就业市场仍然相对稳定。同时，他强调，美联储的职责是确保关税不会引发长期的通胀问题，暗示当前经济状况的复杂性对货币政策的影响。", "on_inflation": "美联储明尼阿波利斯银行行长尼尔·卡什卡里表示，中央银行的职责是确保关税不会引发持续的通胀问题。他强调，目前尚不清楚关税对通胀的影响是一次性的还是长期的。卡什卡里指出，关税可能会在一定程度上导致通胀，但他认为现在判断利率走势还为时过早。他还提到，中央银行的独立性是美国经济成功的重要基础，并表示将密切关注劳动力市场数据，以评估不确定性是否导致企业裁员。", "article_id": "ee50a77b2c8b41dc9ff55e299fbd0c9a", "title": "卡什卡里表示美联储必须确保关税引发的通胀不会持续存在", "category": "讨论", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-22/kashkari-says-fed-must-ensure-tariff-inflation-not-persistent" }, { "date": "2025-04-25", "on_employment": "美联储明尼阿波利斯银行行长尼尔·卡什卡里对美国贸易政策的极度不确定性感到“紧张”，他担心这可能导致大规模裁员。尽管目前他只听说一些企业开始计划应对措施，但他强调，如果贸易争端得以解决，将有助于缓解企业和民众面临的不确定性。他指出，大家同时感到紧张可能会拖累经济，严重影响经济增长。", "on_inflation": "在本文中，明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长尼尔·卡什卡里对美国贸易政策的不确定性表示担忧，并指出这可能导致大规模裁员。他强调，解决与主要贸易伙伴的争端是美国经济最乐观的前景，这将缓解企业和公众面临的极大不确定性。他提到，信心问题是关键，大家如果同时感到紧张，可能会严重拖累经济增长。", "article_id": "1e081cc90b148029bfe8f3a4d2fec1bc", "title": "美联储的卡什卡里担心贸易政策不确定性将导致裁员", "category": "讨论", "url": null }, { "date": "2025-05-20", "on_employment": "Neel Kashkari, the president of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, emphasized the importance of a competitive labor market and its role in addressing the skills gap in the workforce. He noted that businesses often struggle to find workers due to outdated screening practices, but a tight labor market compels them to reevaluate these practices, leading to more inclusive hiring. Kashkari highlighted the significant challenge of matching available workers, especially those without the necessary skills, to job openings. He pointed out the necessity for collaboration between businesses, educational institutions, and government to create tailored programs that address these gaps. Additionally, he mentioned that the current economic environment, marked by low unemployment rates and rising wages, can serve as a powerful motivator for businesses to adapt and seek out potential workers within their communities.", "on_inflation": "在与明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长尼尔·卡什卡里的交谈中，他提到通货膨胀是美联储的主要关注点之一。卡什卡里强调，过去几年经历了非常高的通货膨胀，联邦储备的职责是将其降至目标水平。他指出，尽管通货膨胀有所下降，但仍未达到理想的2%。他提到，当前的贸易不确定性和关税问题对经济造成了挑战，使得通货膨胀的监测和管理变得更加复杂。卡什卡里表示，关注经济基本面和市场动态对于制定合适的利率政策至关重要，以确保经济在稳定的轨道上运行。", "article_id": "ba1f2cb55dd944c887c03954a176bc8f", "title": "尼尔·卡什卡里在明尼苏达州年轻美国领袖项目中的炉边谈话", "category": "讨论", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/speeches/2025/Neel-Kashkari-at-Minnesota-Young-American-Leaders-Program" }, { "date": "2025-05-27", "on_employment": "The document does not directly address employment and the labor market. Instead, it focuses on the uncertainty surrounding interest rate movements due to changes in US trade and immigration policy. Neel Kashkari emphasizes that major shifts in these areas are creating challenges for the Federal Reserve in determining monetary policy, which indirectly affects economic activity and investment plans. The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and their impact on the economy could influence labor market conditions, but specific viewpoints on employment are not explicitly mentioned in the text.", "on_inflation": "Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, expressed concerns about inflation due to significant changes in U.S. trade and immigration policies. He noted that widespread tariffs are likely to increase U.S. inflation while simultaneously hindering growth, as businesses scale back investments and households reduce spending. Kashkari mentioned that this uncertainty surrounding economic activity poses challenges for the Federal Reserve in determining appropriate monetary policy, as they are unsure of the long-term implications of these policies.", "article_id": "e473fb0ffa994a9296bdbe27704fb207", "title": "卡什卡里表示对 9 月份的利率变动\"不确定\"", "category": "采访", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-26/kashkari-says-not-sure-on-interest-rate-moves-by-september" }, { "date": "2025-05-28", "on_employment": "Neel Kashkari emphasizes the significant impact of the labor market on monetary policy decisions. He notes that during the COVID-19 pandemic, although inflation began to rise following the economic reopening, the labor market still showed considerable slack, with an unemployment rate of 6% even as inflation crossed the 2% target. This led many policymakers, including Kashkari, to initially view the inflation increase as transitory, given the existing labor market conditions. He highlights the importance of supporting the labor market while also addressing inflation, particularly in the context of recent shocks to the economy. Kashkari ultimately argues for a cautious approach, advocating for time to gather information before making policy decisions that could adversely affect the labor market.", "on_inflation": "Neel Kashkari discusses the challenges of monetary policy in an uncertain economy, emphasizing the inflationary impact of tariffs. He notes that there is an ongoing debate within the Federal Reserve about whether to \"look through\" the inflation caused by new tariffs. Some argue that tariffs create a temporary inflation shock that should not lead to immediate policy rate increases, allowing economic activity to continue. In contrast, others caution that prolonged high inflation could undermine long-term inflation expectations, advocating for maintaining current policy rates until there is more clarity on tariffs' effects. Kashkari concludes that, in light of significant shocks, policymakers should take time to gather information to make informed decisions, rather than rushing into potentially harmful actions.", "article_id": "0eda689845854d0d95e9d4c9fe5720a7", "title": "尼尔·卡什卡里在日本银行货币经济研究所会议上的讲话", "category": "演讲", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/speeches/2025/neel-kashkari-remarks-at-the-bank-of-japans-institute-for-monetary-and-economic-studies-conference" }, { "date": "2025-06-06", "on_employment": "在采访中，美联储明尼阿波利斯银行行长尼尔·卡什卡利指出，商业投资因关税不确定性而回落，成为美国经济的一大隐忧。他提到，劳动力市场已经出现了一些疲软迹象，一些企业正在考虑裁员的不同方式。此外，卡什卡利还强调，关税的不确定性持续时间越长，负面影响就越大。", "on_inflation": "美联储明尼阿波利斯银行行长尼尔·卡什卡利表示，美国经济似乎仍有韧性，因此现在是获取数据、观察关税政策对经济影响的时机。他提到，关税不确定性导致商业投资的回落，这对美国经济构成了悬而未决的问题，并指出随着关税不确定性的持续，负面影响会越来越大。此外，卡什卡利提到一些企业正在考虑裁员的不同方式，并指出劳动力市场已经出现了一些放缓的迹象。", "article_id": "56608c87abd048d98c282457acdc5704", "title": "卡什卡利称美联储已做好等待关税影响的充分准备", "category": "采访", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-04/kashkari-says-fed-well-positioned-to-wait-for-tariff-impact" }, { "date": "2025-06-25", "on_employment": "在文中，美联储官员尼尔·卡什卡里提到，尽管近期的通胀数据表现良好，但在调整货币政策之前，需要更清楚地了解关税对价格的影响。他强调，过去两三个月的通胀数据表明通缩路径正在按计划进行，但尚不明显关税的全部影响是否已显现。此外，文中并未具体提及就业和劳动力市场的观点，但整体讨论围绕经济状况及货币政策调整的谨慎态度。", "on_inflation": "美联储官员尼尔·卡什卡里指出，最近两三个月的通胀数据表现积极，表明通缩路径如预期发展。然而，他强调尚未看到关税的全部影响，因此在对政策进行重大调整之前，央行需要更清楚地了解关税对价格的实际影响。尽管部分官员支持今年降息，但美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，美联储并不急于降息，正在观察经济对新政策的反应。", "article_id": "f8eebc7787e841cdb6a4d7f2b3162b5d", "title": "卡什卡里表示，美联储需要更清楚了解关税对价格的影响", "category": "讨论", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-24/kashkari-says-fed-needs-more-clarity-on-tariff-impact-on-prices" }, { "date": "2025-06-27", "on_employment": "文中官员提到，尽管失业率维持在4.2%，劳动力市场有所降温，但整体经济活动仍然稳健，显示出对高关税公告的韧性。虽然情绪指标接近COVID-19疫情期间的低点，潜在需求仍然表现较好，表明就业市场的基本面相对强劲。此外，官员强调，企业在应对关税时表现出谨慎，不愿意将成本增加转嫁给客户，尤其是在未来可能达成贸易协议的情况下。这些因素表明，尽管存在不确定性，劳动力市场的影响尚未显现，但仍有潜在的韧性。", "on_inflation": "本文中，美联储官员就通胀的主要观点包括：\n\n1. 关税影响的滞后性：官员指出，贸易战的经济影响尚未在数据中显现，可能是因为影响存在滞后，或者企业正在寻找规避关税的方法。\n\n2. 价格传递的谨慎：许多企业不愿意将关税转嫁给客户，尤其是在贸易协议可能很快达成的情况下。如果关税保持高位，企业表示将不得不将价格上涨传递给客户。\n\n3. 核心商品通胀的上升：尽管核心商品通胀略有上升，但总体上关税对价格、经济活动和劳动力市场的影响仍然有限。\n\n4. 货币政策的反应：官员强调货币政策应对经济实际经历的冲击作出反应，而不仅仅是关注关税的公告。他们认为，了解通胀的真实情况和经济数据是非常重要的。\n\n5. 未来的政策预期：官员预计可能在2025年进行两次降息，但强调在没有更清晰的数据前不应预设宽松的政策路径。", "article_id": "467a8fffd055408e91d21b092375ddda", "title": "关税影响：是延迟还是避免？", "category": "演讲", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2025/tariff-impacts-delayed-or-avoided" }, { "date": "2025-06-27", "on_employment": "美联储官员卡什卡里在讲话中提到，尽管面临关税对通胀的影响，但就业市场依然表现良好，并未出现急剧恶化。他强调，在对关税相关通胀有更清晰的理解之前，美联储需要采取谨慎的态度，慢慢推进政策。他指出，许多企业暂时不打算将成本增加转嫁给消费者，尤其是在关税可能回落的情况下。", "on_inflation": "美联储官员卡什卡里在讲话中提到，尽管近期美国的通胀数据表现“相当积极”，但关税对通胀的影响可能只是延迟显现。他强调，在对关税相关通胀有更清晰的了解之前，美联储需要谨慎行事。卡什卡里指出，许多企业暂时不愿意将成本增加转嫁给消费者，因为他们担心关税回落后可能会损害客户关系。他还提到，产品通常会找到绕过关税障碍的方法，这可能会限制关税对通胀的总体影响。总的来说，他认为仍需更好地评估关税对经济的影响，目前尚不清楚。", "article_id": "e8ddc2c574264d748df1e39caf910129", "title": "美联储卡什卡里称需更明确关税对通胀的影响", "category": "讨论", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/feds-kashkari-says-more-clarity-needed-tariffs-impact-inflation-2025-06-27/" }, { "date": "2025-08-07", "on_employment": "美联储明尼阿波利斯分行行长尼尔·卡什卡里在采访中强调，美国经济正在放缓，劳动力市场的情况也显示出降温的迹象。卡什卡里指出，工资增长正在下降，并表示就业数据和消费者支出都在减弱，表明基础经济正在放缓。他对关税对通胀的最终影响表示不确定，认为在短期内可能需要调整联邦基金利率。他还提到，尽管就业市场的情况有所放缓，但经济的真实状况仍在变化，企业的招聘行为和经济活动将直接影响美国人的经济感受。整体而言，卡什卡里认为，劳动力市场正面临挑战，且对未来的就业情况仍需保持关注。", "on_inflation": "美联储官员尼尔·卡什卡里指出，美国经济正在放缓，这可能使近期降息成为适当选择。他预计今年年底前将有两次降息，但如果关税对通胀的影响持续且更为显著，降息的次数可能会减少。卡什卡里强调，关税仍然是一个重大不确定因素，尚不清楚其对通胀的最终影响。他表示，经济数据表明，住房服务和非住房服务的通胀正在下降，工资增长也在放缓，这些都指向经济的降温。他认为在缺乏关税影响明确的情况下，可能需要调整联邦基金利率，并持续关注通胀数据的变化。", "article_id": "d15da8cc3f1c45498b491ab4340ef62d", "title": "美联储卡什卡里称近期降息或适宜", "category": "采访", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-06/fed-s-kashkari-says-rate-cut-may-be-appropriate-in-near-term" }, { "date": "2025-09-21", "on_employment": "在采访中，明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡里讨论了就业市场的现状。他提到，保持失业率稳定所需的新增就业“平衡点”大约在5万到8万之间，而疫情前的数字大约是8万到9万。他注意到，由于移民减少，劳动力增长受到了显著影响。虽然目前没有听到很多企业在招聘的消息，但也没有很多裁员，这被视为一个积极的信号。然而，整体上，企业的谨慎态度使得就业市场显得有些脆弱。他认为，近期的降息更多是出于保险考虑，以防劳动力市场出现剧烈下滑，同时也为未来一年的通胀动态留出时间。他表示，尽管当前的劳动力市场并不糟糕，但仍需要密切关注。", "on_inflation": "美联储官员尼尔·卡什卡里在采访中强调，3%的通胀水平是不可接受的，他有信心将通胀拉回到2%。虽然当前的高通胀是由于关税等因素造成的，但他认为这些影响可能是一次性的，调整政策以维持强劲的劳动力市场是必要的。他还提到，住房服务通胀正在稳定下降，而非住房服务的通胀也在缓慢回落，整体经济的通胀预期保持在低位是重要的。他对美联储的独立性表示乐观，并指出，降低利率是为了防止劳动力市场出现剧烈下滑，同时给通胀动态留出时间演变。", "article_id": "27681cc90b148019bab8ded101499444", "title": "CNBC对明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡里的完整专访", "category": "采访", "url": null }, { "date": "2025-09-21", "on_employment": "在这篇讲话中，美联储官员讨论了就业和劳动力市场的几个关键观点：\n\n1. 劳动力市场疲软：官员指出，劳动力市场显现出放缓迹象，最近的非农就业报告表现疲软，部分原因是移民数量显著减少。虽然移民减少只解释了就业创造下降的一部分，但劳动力需求的疲软也是重要因素。\n\n2. 通货膨胀与就业的关系：尽管劳动力市场放缓，风险市场依然表现活跃，官员认为这可能是因为市场预期关税通胀是暂时的，并且未来将会降息。官员提到，科技行业的快速增长导致了对劳动力的需求减少，可能会造成股市繁荣而招聘市场低迷的局面。\n\n3. 政策应对的必要性：官员强调，劳动力市场的疲软可能迅速加剧，因此需要采取行动来支持就业市场。他们对未来的货币政策持开放态度，表示如果劳动力市场表现出更强的韧性或通胀意外上升，可能会暂停降息，但如果劳动力市场的疲软超出预期，他们会加速采取支持经济活动的措施。", "on_inflation": "美联储官员在讲话中提到，当前通胀预期的主要风险主要有三方面。首先，工资-物价螺旋上升的风险微乎其微，因为劳动力市场正在放缓，工资增长也在下降。其次，政治事件可能损害美联储的独立性，从而减少公众对美联储适当设定利率以实现双重目标的信心。最后，公众可能认为美联储的政策反应机制发生了变化，如果在高通胀时降息，可能会被视为对3%通胀的默认接受。官员相信美联储会坚定致力于将通胀率恢复至2%的目标，无论关税是导致一次性价格上涨还是持久性通胀，都会采取必要措施以恢复价格稳定。", "article_id": "90afe3072ea44756895d47265e328a28", "title": "三个问题", "category": "演讲", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2025/three-questions" }, { "date": "2025-10-08", "on_employment": "在关于货币政策的讨论中，美联储官员尼尔·卡什卡里强调了劳动力市场的复杂性和当前就业形势的挑战。他指出，尽管目前的经济数据显示出滞胀的信号，但失业率依然保持在相对较低的水平。他提到，雇主在招聘方面表现出谨慎，虽然没有大规模裁员，但招聘意愿减弱，反映出市场的流动性在下降。他还提到，许多企业因人工智能的引入而改变了招聘策略，可能会对传统工作岗位造成影响。此外，卡什卡里对未来就业市场的变化持谨慎乐观态度，认为尽管面临技术替代的挑战，但人类劳动在经济中仍然扮演着重要的角色。", "on_inflation": "美联储明尼阿波利斯分行行长尼尔·卡什卡里警告称，任何大幅降息的举措都可能助长通胀风险。他表示，试图让经济以超过其潜在增长能力的速度运转最终会导致通胀飙升。卡什卡里提到，当前经济数据已显现出滞胀的迹象，经济增长放缓而通胀依然顽固。他强调，若美联储将利率大幅降至中性利率以下，可能会导致低失业率伴随高通胀的局面。因此，针对关税引发的通胀，卡什卡里认为目前下结论为时尚早，通胀是否会持续维持在高位仍需观察。", "article_id": "cee2248023034758873e9ed6cb35c93c", "title": "美联储卡什卡里警告：激进降息将助长通胀", "category": "讨论", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-07/fed-s-kashkari-warns-drastic-rate-cuts-would-stoke-inflation" }, { "date": "2025-11-14", "on_employment": "美联储官员对就业和劳动力市场的主要观点如下：\n\n1. 劳动力市场的韧性：尽管政策利率较高，美国经济表现出惊人的韧性，劳动力市场保持强劲，经济增长持续超出预期。\n\n2. 劳动力市场走软：尽管当前失业率为4.1%，是一个良好的水平，但官员仍认为劳动力市场正在走软，且没有之前那么紧张。\n\n3. 谨慎乐观：通过与大型和小型企业以及工会的接触，官员们听到的普遍是谨慎的乐观，尽管存在一些缓慢走软的趋势。\n\n4. 关注经济数据：官员们强调需要密切观察劳动力市场的动态，并根据最新的数据来指导政策决策。", "on_inflation": "美联储官员在采访中强调了通胀的几个主要观点。首先，他们对近期通胀数据感到乐观，认为通胀正在朝着正确的方向发展，商品通胀已回落至疫情前水平，服务业通胀与工资相关，整体呈下降趋势。官员指出，住房通胀是滞后指标，新租约显示市场正在改善。然而，他们也表达了对通胀可能停滞在2.5%而非回落到2%的风险的担忧。他们认为，货币政策需要时间来观察数据，以指导未来的决策。此外，官员提到，经济的韧性超出了预期，劳动力市场仍然强劲，但也在缓慢走软。因此，他们呼吁在做出政策调整时保持谨慎，注重数据的变化。", "article_id": "2ab81cc90b1480b7bc1dd14555235351", "title": "美联储的卡什卡里谈通胀、住房与就业市场", "category": "采访", "url": null }, { "date": "2026-01-06", "on_employment": "明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡利在采访中谈及就业市场时指出，劳动力市场正在降温，失业率上升至4.6%。他认为这一数据比较清晰，并且在与当地企业交流中发现，企业的招聘活动并不活跃，这表明劳动力市场的冷却。同时，尽管通胀仍然偏高，卡什卡利对最新的通胀数据持谨慎态度，认为数据收集存在问题，且通胀的高企已经持续了4-5年。他强调，目前劳动力市场可能面临更大的挑战，并预计明年失业率将保持平稳，通胀则可能缓慢下降。", "on_inflation": "美联储官员尼尔·卡什卡利在采访中提到，通胀问题仍然令人担忧，尽管最近的通胀数据存在数据收集问题。卡什卡利认为，住房服务的通胀正在下降，而非住房服务的通胀应该与工资挂钩，工资增长正在缓慢下降。他强调，货币政策的紧缩程度及其对经济的影响是当前的一个重要问题。他预计明年失业率将在一定程度上持平，通胀会缓慢下降，但整体经济依然显示出韧性。", "article_id": "2e081cc90b14806a8c7cc226f1a7be06", "title": "CNBC 对明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡利（Neel Kashkari）的完整专访", "category": "采访", "url": null }, { "date": "2026-02-23", "on_employment": "在此次采访中，美联储明尼阿波利斯银行行长尼尔·卡什卡里强调了就业和劳动力市场的现状。他指出，尽管全国失业率约为4.3%，但劳动力市场的韧性有所减弱，反映出某些行业的压力。例如，农业依然面临困难，而医疗保健行业在全国范围内也遇到了独特的挑战。然而，卡什卡里也提到一些制造业和服务业表现良好，整体上表现出谨慎的乐观情绪。\n\n他注意到，北达科他州的企业首次表示人手充足，显示出与以往不同的趋势。尽管如此，卡什卡里对全国失业率的上升表示担忧，认为可能反映出劳动力市场并不像统计数据所显示的那样稳健。此外，他提到了移民政策的变化可能对建筑行业造成影响，指出由于缺乏熟练工人，可能会导致住房建设放缓。总的来说，卡什卡里呼吁关注劳动力市场的结构性变化，特别是工人的可用性对经济的影响。", "on_inflation": "尼尔·卡什卡里（Neel Kashkari）表示，通胀在过去一年中有所上升，但目前已经显著下降，现阶段通胀率在2.5%到3%之间。他指出，虽然关税上升可能导致短期价格上涨，但不应继续上升。他强调，美联储将通胀目标设定为2%，并会根据经济形势调整货币政策。他认为，美联储的资产负债表规模扩大是由于技术性因素，并表示要进一步缩减资产负债表可能需要对金融体系进行根本性改革。", "article_id": "c859a38f28714cd693ac91bc4a007023", "title": "卡什卡里痛批哈塞特对纽约联储关税分析的批评", "category": "采访", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-19/kashkari-rips-hassett-criticism-of-new-york-fed-tariff-analysis" }, { "date": "2026-03-04", "on_employment": "美联储官员在讲话中提到，劳动力市场正处于“低招聘、低解雇”的特殊动态中，显示出一种不寻常的平衡状态。威廉姆斯指出，家庭调查显示出更加悲观的情绪，这为政策制定者提供了需要警惕的信号。此外，施密德强调，近期数据表明劳动力市场趋于平衡，但通胀水平仍然过高，特别是在受关税影响的商品和服务中出现了价格压力。这些因素使得美联储在货币政策上需保持谨慎。", "on_inflation": "美联储官员尼尔·卡什卡利表示，伊朗的袭击使他对今年降息的确定性降低，当前通胀问题的关键在于能源价格上涨的持续性。他认为，现在判断这些事件对通胀的影响及其持续时间还为时尚早。美联储预计本月将维持利率不变，市场参与者已降低了对年底前两次降息的预期。纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯补充称，如果通胀进一步放缓，则可能需要更多降息。他预计通胀率将在2026年底降至2.5%，并在2027年降至2%。此外，威廉姆斯强调，当前就业市场的低招聘和低解雇动态仍需关注，家庭调查的数据也显示出悲观情绪，为政策制定者提供了警示信号。", "article_id": "36bbf5b5631f4d77911af0d10ab7a301", "title": "美联储卡什卡利称战争为利率路径增添不确定性", "category": "采访", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-03/fed-s-kashkari-says-iran-war-creates-uncertainty-for-rate-path" }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "on_employment": "官员指出，当前美国劳动力市场表现为“温和但基本稳定”，自2025年5月以来失业率维持在约4.3%，略高于其对实现最大就业的预期水平。若霍尔木兹海峡快速重新开放，通胀冲击虽可能抑制消费，但对就业的冲击相对有限；若海峡长期关闭，油价与物价大幅上升将导致通胀和失业同步上升，劳动力市场将面临更大压力，甚至需要通过加息等强硬政策来遏制通胀，即使这会进一步削弱就业。", "on_inflation": "官员认为，在中东冲突爆发前，他相当确信核心通胀将回落至2%的目标；关税导致的商品通胀预计在2026年会逐步消退，住房服务通胀已在下降，非住房通胀受工资增速放缓影响亦趋缓，长期通胀预期仍稳固锚定在2%。但冲突可能带来两种情景：若霍尔木兹海峡较快重新开放，核心通胀可能维持在约3%；若海峡长期关闭，通胀和失业率将进一步上升，存在通胀预期脱锚风险，可能需要更强硬的加息政策。", "article_id": "1c5034c6a71b474ba7cbca2764af67f7", "title": "我为何投反对票", "category": null, "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2026/why-i-dissented" }, { "date": "2026-05-11", "on_employment": null, "on_inflation": "• 卡什卡里表示对物价走势“非常谨慎”，因通胀已连续五年高于目标。\n• 他强调不能让高通胀成为新常态。", "article_id": "35e81cc90b14814a9ea1d1f06c798c72", "title": "伊朗战争给利率前景增添不确定性，美联储卡什卡里表示 - Iran War Has Added Uncertainty to Interest Rate Outlook, Fed’s Kashkari Says", "category": "演讲", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-07/fed-s-kashkari-says-next-rate-move-uncertain-because-of-iran-war" }, { "date": "2026-05-28", "on_employment": "• 劳动力市场目前“状况良好”。\n• 美联储需关注双重使命，但当前劳动力市场状况良好，而通胀过高。", "on_inflation": "• 降低通胀仍是首要任务，消费者价格仍然“过高”。\n• 通胀已超过美联储2%目标逾五年。\n• 警告持续通胀可能使消费者预期失去锚定，迫使更激进行动。\n• 当前通胀压力由能源和化肥价格驱动。\n• 全球通胀压力来自疫情、关税、乌克兰战争和伊朗冲突。", "article_id": "36f81cc90b1481d4bbddc7268cdc2f26", "title": "表示，通胀斗争优先，劳动力市场‘状况良好’", "category": "采访", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/28/fed-reserve-neel-kashkari-inflation-job-market.html" }, { "date": "2026-06-29", "on_employment": "• 劳动力市场已从2025年底的疲软状态改善，当时美联储三次降息提振招聘。\n• 卡什卡利表示看到劳动力市场复苏的迹象。\n• 工资涨幅仍低于通胀，但可能加速增长，给通胀降温带来挑战。\n• 零售企业中高收入者继续消费，低收入者降级消费，购买量减少。", "on_inflation": "• 卡什卡利表示通胀范围广泛，不仅限于中东局势，而是经济中更广泛的通胀压力。\n• 通胀在2025年基本不变后，过去三个月飙升，众多类别价格上涨。\n• 美联储19位决策者中有9位预计今年至少加息一次，卡什卡利本人从预计降息转为预计加息。\n• 卡什卡利不急于加息，希望观察数据，但通胀持续性令人担忧。\n• 工资涨幅低于通胀，但可能显著增长，可能减缓通缩进程。\n• 供应链冲击（如伊朗战争、人工智能数据中心建设）使抗击通胀更加复杂。", "article_id": "38e81cc90b1481b4aebdfd718ff0b8a7", "title": "卡什卡利称通胀范围广泛，美联储今年或需加息", "category": "采访", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-26/kashkari-says-fed-may-need-to-raise-rates-amid-broad-inflation" }, { "date": "2026-08-01", "on_employment": "• 当前失业率较低，经济状况优于1970年代。\n• 逐步收紧政策可在通胀消退时放缓或暂停，减少对实体经济和就业的冲击。", "on_inflation": "• 通胀高于2%目标已超过五年，最初由供应冲击引发（疫情供应链、乌克兰战争、贸易战、伊朗冲突），数据中心投资增加需求压力。\n• 货币政策对需求型通胀有效，但面对连续供给冲击时需防止高通胀根深蒂固，货币政策应发挥作用。\n• 1970年代经验显示，即使供给冲击所致，紧缩政策也是必要的。\n• 主张逐步加息，若通胀持续则小步多次调整，优于等待后大幅行动。", "article_id": "3b081cc90b1481df94e5d5321afe8d91", "title": "异议声明", "category": "声明", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2026/statement-on-my-fomc-dissent" }, { "date": "2026-08-24", "on_employment": null, "on_inflation": "• 美联储职责是让通胀回到2%目标，当前致力于此。\n• 全球债券收益率上升是多种因素所致，通胀预期是其中之一。\n• 中东冲突（伊朗）推高能源价格，可能延长通胀高企时间，降低对通胀回归目标的信心。\n• 贸易和关税冲突构成供给冲击，使通胀影响持续更久。\n• 五年来通胀持续高企，若数据支持，可能需要加息，但需观望更多数据。", "article_id": "3c681cc90b1481f6b2e0e9eaed23b9ec", "title": "文字实录：明尼阿波利斯联储总裁兼首席执行官尼尔·卡什卡里在玛格丽特·布伦南主持的《面向全国》节目上，2026年8月23日", "category": "采访", "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/neel-kashkari-minneapolis-fed-face-the-nation-transcript-08-23-2026/" } ], "lexicon_quarters": [ { "quarter": "2024Q1", "articles": 6, "words_en": 23771, "hawk_hits": 3, "dove_hits": 11, "neutral_hits": 13, "lean": -0.5333, "hawk_hits_topic": 6, "dove_hits_topic": 21, "lean_topic": -0.5357, "hawk_per_1k": 0.126, "dove_per_1k": 0.463 }, { "quarter": "2024Q2", "articles": 10, "words_en": 40388, "hawk_hits": 18, "dove_hits": 37, "neutral_hits": 50, "lean": -0.3393, "hawk_hits_topic": 85, 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"bank": "BofA", "title_zh": "4月FOMC前瞻：鲍威尔的鹰派绝唱", "snippet_zh": "- 图10：近两周美联储官员关键讲话摘要。 - 图11：2026年FOMC投票区联储主席为Logan、Hammack、Kashkari、Paulson——美银美国经济鸽鹰光谱图。 - 图12：截至4/18总卡支出同比+3.3%——按主要类别的日度信用卡/借记卡支出增速汇总。", "article_id": "644735ec8db24593b526d57adaeec486", "fed_call": "hold" }, { "date": "2026-03-23", "bank": "BofA", "title_zh": "美联储加息需要什么条件？", "snippet_zh": "- 图表11：近几周美联储官员关键表态汇总——美联储官员发言摘要表 - 图表12：2026年地区联储主席轮值投票成员为Logan、Hammack、Kashkari和Paulson——BofA美国经济团队鸽鹰图谱 - 图表13：截至3月14日当周每户总信用卡消费同比增长4.9%——BAC汇总日度信用卡和借记卡消费增长（按主要品类）", "article_id": "0efa89e9e42148369bd5b32546af0e1c", "fed_call": "cut" }, { "date": "2026-03-19", "bank": "Deutsche Bank", "title_zh": "DB AI鹰鸽指数更新：美联储发言信号在3月FOMC前略偏鹰派", "snippet_zh": "纽约联储Williams的得分也降至2.6。 最鹰派：达拉斯联储Logan（接近7分）、Barr、Kashkari和Cook的得分上升至6分。 鲍威尔因1月后无正式讲话，得分维持在6.25（但可能高估其鹰派程度）。", "article_id": "ab466e1486f04a5aabd900f37f7a2eb5", "fed_call": "hold" }, { "date": "2026-03-02", "bank": "Barclays", "title_zh": "美国经济展望：数据平静，AI焦虑喧嚣", "snippet_zh": "ISM制造业（周一）和服务业（周三）指数也将公布。 联储官员Williams和Kashkari将于周二发言。 推荐标的：", "article_id": "0bf15af4c5b44e30a56af949863ca475", "fed_call": "cut" }, { "date": "2026-02-23", "bank": "Nomura", "title_zh": "关税大逆转——美国经济周报", "snippet_zh": "Cleveland联储主席Hammack和Atlanta联储主席Bostic也提出了加息的可能性。 Governor Barr和Minneapolis联储主席Kashkari强调通胀居高不下和劳动力市场趋稳。 10. AI生产率繁荣的政策分歧：美联储内部对AI生产率繁荣的政策含义存在分歧。", "article_id": "063d3cc741444c93a2728278525a68f0", "fed_call": "cut" }, { "date": "2026-02-02", "bank": "BofA", "title_zh": "美国经济周报：关于中性利率的大辩论", "snippet_zh": "2. 图表10：以下是近几周美联储发言人的关键引言摘要——近期美联储发言摘要 3. 图表11：今年在FOMC投票的地区主席是Logan、Hammack、Kashkari和Paulson——BofA美国经济学鸽派-鹰派图表 1. 图表12：按主要类别分列的每户家庭信用卡和借记卡支出汇总日增长，1月17-24日（7日移动平均支出水平的同比%变化）——截至1月24日的一周，每户家庭信用卡总支出同比增长6.6%", "article_id": "2fc81cc90b14801db7c3f5f8d2e0b34f", "fed_call": "cut" }, { "date": "2026-02-02", "bank": "Deutsche Bank", "title_zh": "德银AI鹰鸽指数更新：美联储讲话与政策共同处于\"宽松中性\"", "snippet_zh": "这一转向与美联储完成新一轮降息并在本周维持利率不变的政策行动相一致。 3. 投票委员轮换未改变整体立场：尽管FOMC投票席位发生轮换，新加入的地区联储主席包括克利夫兰联储的Hammack、达拉斯联储的Logan、明尼阿波利斯联储的Kashkari和费城联储的Paulson，但委员会的整体评分保持高度一致。 2026年投票成员的平均得分与2025年投票成员在过去几年中高度相似，差异平均不到0.1。", "article_id": "2fc81cc90b148003ba68ee661c1526b4", "fed_call": "hold" }, { "date": "2026-01-26", "bank": "BofA", "title_zh": "中文标题:", "snippet_zh": "2. Exhibit 14: (表格)以下是近几周美联储官员关键言论摘要——美联储官员发言摘要 3. Exhibit 15: 今年FOMC投票的地区联储主席为Logan、Hammack、Kashkari和Paulson——美银美国经济学鸽派-鹰派图表 1. Exhibit 16: (表格)按主要类别汇总的每户家庭信用卡和借记卡支出增长,1月10日至1月17日(7日移动平均水平的同比%变化)——截至1月17日当周每户家庭信用卡总支出同比增长3.3%", "article_id": "2f581cc90b1480e798cee9ff46d7b423", "fed_call": "cut" }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "bank": "Nomura", "title_zh": "别和美联储作对", "snippet_zh": "多位美联储官员本周发表声明支持鲍威尔，强调美联储独立性在抗击通胀中的重要性。 明尼阿波利斯联储主席Kashkari重申鲍威尔关于\"过去一年的升级实际上是关于货币政策\"的说法，芝加哥联储主席Goolsbee表示同意鲍威尔的论点，即因不同意美联储利率决定而进行调查是\"一团糟\"。 参议院方面出现跨党派反对，参议员Thom Tillis明确表示反对司法部针对美联储的行动，并表示在法律问题完全解决前将反对确认任何美联储提名人。", "article_id": "2ea81cc90b14802e80beebe0f32b9fe4", "fed_call": "cut" }, { "date": "2025-12-12", "bank": "UBS", "title_zh": "FOMC理事会重新批准地区联储行长", "snippet_zh": "8. 2026年FOMC投票成员轮换：报告详细列出了2025年和2026年FOMC的构成变化。 2026年的投票成员将发生轮换，克利夫兰联储的Beth Hammack、费城联储的Anna Paulson、达拉斯联储的Lorie Logan和明尼阿波利斯联储的Neel Kashkari将成为投票成员，而2025年的投票成员芝加哥联储的Austan Goolsbee、波士顿联储的Susan Collins、圣路易斯联储的Alberto Musalem和堪萨斯城联储的Jeffrey Schmid将成为候补成员。 论述逻辑：", "article_id": "2ca81cc90b14802ba133d854b9e014d4", "fed_call": null }, { "date": "2025-10-10", "bank": "UBS", "title_zh": "美国经济周报：数据荒持续", "snippet_zh": "堪萨斯城联储主席Schmid认为当前政策\"仅略微限制性\"，关注通胀风险。 明尼阿波利斯联储主席Kashkari警告不要过于激进地降息。 纽约联储主席Williams对通胀前景更加乐观，表示\"没有看到二次效应的迹象\"。", "article_id": "28881cc90b1480148591ee34180b59c6", "fed_call": "cut" } ], "editor_notes": [ { "date": "2026-08-24", "title": "文字实录：明尼阿波利斯联储总裁兼首席执行官尼尔·卡什卡里在玛格丽特·布伦南主持的《面向全国》节目上，2026年8月23日", "note_zh": [ "中东冲突持续越久，我就越不相信通胀会回到目标水平。五年来我们一直说通胀将在未来一两年内回到目标，但这一预期一直在被推迟。最终，我们将不得不采取更多行动。我不确定我们是否已经到了那一步，我们需要看到更多数据。", "眼下我并不确信通胀会在短期内回落至目标。", "贸易领域的反复持续越久，就像伊朗冲突中的反复持续越久一样，通胀的影响最终就会延长和推迟", "没有迹象显示国债市场功能失调或金融市场崩溃…国债市场是财政部的工作", "中东冲突持续越久，我就越不相信通胀会回到目标水平。五年来我们一直说通胀将在未来一两年内回到目标，但这一预期一直在被推迟。最终，我们将不得不采取更多行动。我不确定我们是否已经到了那一步，我们需要看到更多数据。" ], "note_format": "topics", "note_topic": "通胀", "note_sections": [ { "topic": "通胀", "bullets": [ "中东冲突持续越久，我就越不相信通胀会回到目标水平。五年来我们一直说通胀将在未来一两年内回到目标，但这一预期一直在被推迟。最终，我们将不得不采取更多行动。我不确定我们是否已经到了那一步，我们需要看到更多数据。", "眼下我并不确信通胀会在短期内回落至目标。", "贸易领域的反复持续越久，就像伊朗冲突中的反复持续越久一样，通胀的影响最终就会延长和推迟" ] }, { "topic": "货币政策", "bullets": [ "没有迹象显示国债市场功能失调或金融市场崩溃…国债市场是财政部的工作", "中东冲突持续越久，我就越不相信通胀会回到目标水平。五年来我们一直说通胀将在未来一两年内回到目标，但这一预期一直在被推迟。最终，我们将不得不采取更多行动。我不确定我们是否已经到了那一步，我们需要看到更多数据。" ] } ], "note_raw": "通胀\n‣ 中东冲突持续越久，我就越不相信通胀会回到目标水平。五年来我们一直说通胀将在未来一两年内回到目标，但这一预期一直在被推迟。最终，我们将不得不采取更多行动。我不确定我们是否已经到了那一步，我们需要看到更多数据。\n‣ 眼下我并不确信通胀会在短期内回落至目标。\n‣ 贸易领域的反复持续越久，就像伊朗冲突中的反复持续越久一样，通胀的影响最终就会延长和推迟\n货币政策\n‣ 没有迹象显示国债市场功能失调或金融市场崩溃…国债市场是财政部的工作\n‣ 中东冲突持续越久，我就越不相信通胀会回到目标水平。五年来我们一直说通胀将在未来一两年内回到目标，但这一预期一直在被推迟。最终，我们将不得不采取更多行动。我不确定我们是否已经到了那一步，我们需要看到更多数据。", "article_id": "3c681cc90b1481f6b2e0e9eaed23b9ec", "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/neel-kashkari-minneapolis-fed-face-the-nation-transcript-08-23-2026/" }, { "date": "2026-08-01", "title": "异议声明", "note_zh": [ "通胀相对于我们2%的目标已经偏高超过五年。最初的通胀原因部分是一系列供给冲击，如疫情造成的供应链中断、乌克兰战争、贸易战以及最近的伊朗冲突。对数据中心的大规模投资也为美国人所经历的高通胀新增了一个需求因素。", "面对暂时推高通胀的单个供给冲击，货币政策制定者应“看穿”冲击并让其自行消退。我大体认同这一观点，但我越来越相信，在应对一系列可能导致更高通胀根深蒂固的连续供给冲击时，货币政策确实可以发挥重要作用。", "1970年代的货币政策制定者也曾将当时异常的通胀诊断为主要由一系列影响大宗商品、食品和能源市场的连续供给冲击所致。尽管最初诊断为供给冲击，但政策制定者最终认为，有必要采取紧缩货币政策来使通胀回落。", "我本周投了反对票，因为我倾向于加息25BP", "面对暂时推高通胀的单个供给冲击，货币政策制定者应“看穿”冲击并让其自行消退。我大体认同这一观点，但我越来越相信，在应对一系列可能导致更高通胀根深蒂固的连续供给冲击时，货币政策确实可以发挥重要作用。", "为了应对高通胀可能变得根深蒂固的风险，我宁愿在收集更多关于通胀和就业路径的数据时逐步收紧政策。在我看来，如果通胀仍处高位，一系列小幅度政策调整可能比等待并最终认为甚至更需要大胆行动更好。另一方面，如果通胀持久消退，小步政策策略将使FOMC能够放缓或暂停后续调整，而不会对实体经济造成不必要的影响。" ], "note_format": "topics", "note_topic": "通胀", "note_sections": [ { "topic": "通胀", "bullets": [ "通胀相对于我们2%的目标已经偏高超过五年。最初的通胀原因部分是一系列供给冲击，如疫情造成的供应链中断、乌克兰战争、贸易战以及最近的伊朗冲突。对数据中心的大规模投资也为美国人所经历的高通胀新增了一个需求因素。", "面对暂时推高通胀的单个供给冲击，货币政策制定者应“看穿”冲击并让其自行消退。我大体认同这一观点，但我越来越相信，在应对一系列可能导致更高通胀根深蒂固的连续供给冲击时，货币政策确实可以发挥重要作用。", "1970年代的货币政策制定者也曾将当时异常的通胀诊断为主要由一系列影响大宗商品、食品和能源市场的连续供给冲击所致。尽管最初诊断为供给冲击，但政策制定者最终认为，有必要采取紧缩货币政策来使通胀回落。" ] }, { "topic": "当然，1970年代的经济与今天的经济之间有许多差异。今天的经济状况比那时好得多：失业率更低，通胀也低得多。", "bullets": [] }, { "topic": "货币政策", "bullets": [ "我本周投了反对票，因为我倾向于加息25BP", "面对暂时推高通胀的单个供给冲击，货币政策制定者应“看穿”冲击并让其自行消退。我大体认同这一观点，但我越来越相信，在应对一系列可能导致更高通胀根深蒂固的连续供给冲击时，货币政策确实可以发挥重要作用。", "为了应对高通胀可能变得根深蒂固的风险，我宁愿在收集更多关于通胀和就业路径的数据时逐步收紧政策。在我看来，如果通胀仍处高位，一系列小幅度政策调整可能比等待并最终认为甚至更需要大胆行动更好。另一方面，如果通胀持久消退，小步政策策略将使FOMC能够放缓或暂停后续调整，而不会对实体经济造成不必要的影响。" ] } ], "note_raw": "通胀\n‣ 通胀相对于我们2%的目标已经偏高超过五年。最初的通胀原因部分是一系列供给冲击，如疫情造成的供应链中断、乌克兰战争、贸易战以及最近的伊朗冲突。对数据中心的大规模投资也为美国人所经历的高通胀新增了一个需求因素。\n‣ 面对暂时推高通胀的单个供给冲击，货币政策制定者应“看穿”冲击并让其自行消退。我大体认同这一观点，但我越来越相信，在应对一系列可能导致更高通胀根深蒂固的连续供给冲击时，货币政策确实可以发挥重要作用。\n‣ 1970年代的货币政策制定者也曾将当时异常的通胀诊断为主要由一系列影响大宗商品、食品和能源市场的连续供给冲击所致。尽管最初诊断为供给冲击，但政策制定者最终认为，有必要采取紧缩货币政策来使通胀回落。\n当然，1970年代的经济与今天的经济之间有许多差异。今天的经济状况比那时好得多：失业率更低，通胀也低得多。\n货币政策\n‣ 我本周投了反对票，因为我倾向于加息25BP\n‣ 面对暂时推高通胀的单个供给冲击，货币政策制定者应“看穿”冲击并让其自行消退。我大体认同这一观点，但我越来越相信，在应对一系列可能导致更高通胀根深蒂固的连续供给冲击时，货币政策确实可以发挥重要作用。\n‣ 为了应对高通胀可能变得根深蒂固的风险，我宁愿在收集更多关于通胀和就业路径的数据时逐步收紧政策。在我看来，如果通胀仍处高位，一系列小幅度政策调整可能比等待并最终认为甚至更需要大胆行动更好。另一方面，如果通胀持久消退，小步政策策略将使FOMC能够放缓或暂停后续调整，而不会对实体经济造成不必要的影响。", "article_id": "3b081cc90b1481df94e5d5321afe8d91", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2026/statement-on-my-fomc-dissent" }, { "date": "2026-06-29", "title": "卡什卡利称通胀范围广泛，美联储今年或需加息", "note_zh": [ "确实看到了我所说的劳动力市场复苏的迹象", "我担心通胀，这不仅仅与中东局势有关，还有经济中通胀压力范围扩大的印象", "我不信任伊朗…市场多大程度上恢复正常，还是将经历一段长期的某种压力和不确定性？", "为支持AI产业而建设的数据中心“如今肯定对经济某些部门的价格构成了压力”", "目前涨幅低于通胀的工资可能即将出现更显著的增长，因为工资往往滞后于物价，而这可能使美联储冷却通胀的目标更加复杂化…这可能不是通胀的主要来源，但可能会减缓通缩的进程", "并不一定急着加息，预计2027年不会有更多的加息" ], "note_format": "topics", "note_topic": "就业/经济", "note_sections": [ { "topic": "就业/经济", "bullets": [ "确实看到了我所说的劳动力市场复苏的迹象" ] }, { "topic": "通胀", "bullets": [ "我担心通胀，这不仅仅与中东局势有关，还有经济中通胀压力范围扩大的印象", "我不信任伊朗…市场多大程度上恢复正常，还是将经历一段长期的某种压力和不确定性？", "为支持AI产业而建设的数据中心“如今肯定对经济某些部门的价格构成了压力”", "目前涨幅低于通胀的工资可能即将出现更显著的增长，因为工资往往滞后于物价，而这可能使美联储冷却通胀的目标更加复杂化…这可能不是通胀的主要来源，但可能会减缓通缩的进程" ] }, { "topic": "货币政策", "bullets": [ "并不一定急着加息，预计2027年不会有更多的加息" ] } ], "note_raw": "就业/经济\n‣ 确实看到了我所说的劳动力市场复苏的迹象\n通胀\n‣ 我担心通胀，这不仅仅与中东局势有关，还有经济中通胀压力范围扩大的印象\n‣ 我不信任伊朗…市场多大程度上恢复正常，还是将经历一段长期的某种压力和不确定性？\n‣ 为支持AI产业而建设的数据中心“如今肯定对经济某些部门的价格构成了压力”\n‣ 目前涨幅低于通胀的工资可能即将出现更显著的增长，因为工资往往滞后于物价，而这可能使美联储冷却通胀的目标更加复杂化…这可能不是通胀的主要来源，但可能会减缓通缩的进程\n货币政策\n‣ 并不一定急着加息，预计2027年不会有更多的加息", "article_id": "38e81cc90b1481b4aebdfd718ff0b8a7", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-26/kashkari-says-fed-may-need-to-raise-rates-amid-broad-inflation" }, { "date": "2026-05-28", "title": "表示，通胀斗争优先，劳动力市场‘状况良好’", "note_zh": [ "如果人工智能真的导致持续更高的生产率，那么由于经济如此高产，更高的利率可能会持续。", "目前影响难以判断，因此需要观察人工智能如何转化为持续更高的生产率", "通胀高企的时间越长，通胀预期失控并进一步上升的风险就越大。如果出现这种情况，那么我们就必须采取更激进的应对措施，因此我们最好尽我们所能来保持通胀预期稳定", "我将关注的一件事是，何时能看到能源价格影响更广泛的经济和通胀", "我正高度关注通胀，并非完全忽视劳动力市场。但劳动力市场目前状况良好，而通胀实在太高了" ], "note_format": "topics", "note_topic": "就业/经济", "note_sections": [ { "topic": "就业/经济", "bullets": [ "如果人工智能真的导致持续更高的生产率，那么由于经济如此高产，更高的利率可能会持续。", "目前影响难以判断，因此需要观察人工智能如何转化为持续更高的生产率" ] }, { "topic": "通胀", "bullets": [ "通胀高企的时间越长，通胀预期失控并进一步上升的风险就越大。如果出现这种情况，那么我们就必须采取更激进的应对措施，因此我们最好尽我们所能来保持通胀预期稳定", "我将关注的一件事是，何时能看到能源价格影响更广泛的经济和通胀" ] }, { "topic": "风险平衡", "bullets": [ "我正高度关注通胀，并非完全忽视劳动力市场。但劳动力市场目前状况良好，而通胀实在太高了" ] } ], "note_raw": "就业/经济\n‣ 如果人工智能真的导致持续更高的生产率，那么由于经济如此高产，更高的利率可能会持续。\n‣ 目前影响难以判断，因此需要观察人工智能如何转化为持续更高的生产率\n通胀\n‣ 通胀高企的时间越长，通胀预期失控并进一步上升的风险就越大。如果出现这种情况，那么我们就必须采取更激进的应对措施，因此我们最好尽我们所能来保持通胀预期稳定\n‣ 我将关注的一件事是，何时能看到能源价格影响更广泛的经济和通胀\n风险平衡\n‣ 我正高度关注通胀，并非完全忽视劳动力市场。但劳动力市场目前状况良好，而通胀实在太高了", "article_id": "36f81cc90b1481d4bbddc7268cdc2f26", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/28/fed-reserve-neel-kashkari-inflation-job-market.html" }, { "date": "2026-05-11", "title": "伊朗战争给利率前景增添不确定性，美联储卡什卡里表示 - Iran War Has Added Uncertainty to Interest Rate Outlook, Fed’s Kashkari Says", "note_zh": [ "如果霍尔木兹海峡长期关闭，那么下一步行动很可能需要上调利率", "对物价走势\"非常谨慎\"，不能让高通胀成为新常态" ], "note_format": "topics", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "如果霍尔木兹海峡长期关闭，那么下一步行动很可能需要上调利率", "对物价走势\"非常谨慎\"，不能让高通胀成为新常态" ] } ], "note_raw": "‣ 如果霍尔木兹海峡长期关闭，那么下一步行动很可能需要上调利率\n‣ 对物价走势\"非常谨慎\"，不能让高通胀成为新常态", "article_id": "35e81cc90b14814a9ea1d1f06c798c72", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-07/fed-s-kashkari-says-next-rate-move-uncertain-because-of-iran-war" }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "title": "我为何投反对票", "note_zh": [ "在中东冲突爆发前，我仍相当确信核心通胀率正朝着 2%的目标回落。", "我认为继续在政策声明中保留以下措辞并不恰当：“在考虑进一步调整联邦基金利率目标区间的幅度和时机时……”，这更多是关于降息的前瞻指引。", "鉴于近期经济与地缘政治形势的发展，以及前景的高度不确定性，我认为目前不宜采用此类前瞻性指引。应提供展望表明下一次利率调整既可能是降息也可能是加息，具体取决于经济演变。", "我在 12 月和 3 月的经济预测摘要（SEP）中均显示 2026 年将再降息 25 个基点。但中东冲突让我改变了观点。", "我主要关注两种情景：" ], "note_format": "topics", "note_topic": "通胀", "note_sections": [ { "topic": "通胀", "bullets": [ "在中东冲突爆发前，我仍相当确信核心通胀率正朝着 2%的目标回落。" ] }, { "topic": "货币政策", "bullets": [ "我认为继续在政策声明中保留以下措辞并不恰当：“在考虑进一步调整联邦基金利率目标区间的幅度和时机时……”，这更多是关于降息的前瞻指引。", "鉴于近期经济与地缘政治形势的发展，以及前景的高度不确定性，我认为目前不宜采用此类前瞻性指引。应提供展望表明下一次利率调整既可能是降息也可能是加息，具体取决于经济演变。", "我在 12 月和 3 月的经济预测摘要（SEP）中均显示 2026 年将再降息 25 个基点。但中东冲突让我改变了观点。", "我主要关注两种情景：" ] }, { "topic": "◦ 一是霍尔木兹海峡相对快速地重新开放，最优货币政策应对可能是较长时间维持当前利率水平，待通胀冲击被证实为暂时性并开始消退后，再逐步实施宽松政策。", "bullets": [] }, { "topic": "◦ 二是霍尔木兹海峡长期关闭，中东能源和基础设施可能遭受进一步破坏，价格冲击波可能远超当前预期，同时推高美国通胀与失业率。必须严肃对待长期通胀预期脱锚的风险…可能需要采取强有力的政策回应来验证这些预期。加息甚至一系列加息或许是合理的，即便面临劳动力市场进一步疲软的风险。", "bullets": [] } ], "note_raw": "通胀\n‣ 在中东冲突爆发前，我仍相当确信核心通胀率正朝着 2%的目标回落。\n货币政策\n‣ 我认为继续在政策声明中保留以下措辞并不恰当：“在考虑进一步调整联邦基金利率目标区间的幅度和时机时……”，这更多是关于降息的前瞻指引。\n‣ 鉴于近期经济与地缘政治形势的发展，以及前景的高度不确定性，我认为目前不宜采用此类前瞻性指引。应提供展望表明下一次利率调整既可能是降息也可能是加息，具体取决于经济演变。\n‣ 我在 12 月和 3 月的经济预测摘要（SEP）中均显示 2026 年将再降息 25 个基点。但中东冲突让我改变了观点。\n‣ 我主要关注两种情景：\n◦ 一是霍尔木兹海峡相对快速地重新开放，最优货币政策应对可能是较长时间维持当前利率水平，待通胀冲击被证实为暂时性并开始消退后，再逐步实施宽松政策。\n◦ 二是霍尔木兹海峡长期关闭，中东能源和基础设施可能遭受进一步破坏，价格冲击波可能远超当前预期，同时推高美国通胀与失业率。必须严肃对待长期通胀预期脱锚的风险…可能需要采取强有力的政策回应来验证这些预期。加息甚至一系列加息或许是合理的，即便面临劳动力市场进一步疲软的风险。", "article_id": "1c5034c6a71b474ba7cbca2764af67f7", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2026/why-i-dissented" }, { "date": "2026-03-04", "title": "美联储卡什卡利称战争为利率路径增添不确定性", "note_zh": [ "美伊冲突使得对今年降息一次的预期变得不那么确定", "目前要判断这对通胀的影响程度及持续时间还为时过早", "无法能源价格上升对经济和通胀的两方面影响，可能让我们更有理由暂时按兵不动" ], "note_format": "topics", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "美伊冲突使得对今年降息一次的预期变得不那么确定", "目前要判断这对通胀的影响程度及持续时间还为时过早", "无法能源价格上升对经济和通胀的两方面影响，可能让我们更有理由暂时按兵不动" ] } ], "note_raw": "‣ 美伊冲突使得对今年降息一次的预期变得不那么确定\n‣ 目前要判断这对通胀的影响程度及持续时间还为时过早\n‣ 无法能源价格上升对经济和通胀的两方面影响，可能让我们更有理由暂时按兵不动", "article_id": "36bbf5b5631f4d77911af0d10ab7a301", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-03/fed-s-kashkari-says-iran-war-creates-uncertainty-for-rate-path" }, { "date": "2026-01-06", "title": "CNBC 对明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡利（Neel Kashkari）的完整专访", "note_zh": [ "我的预期是明年 经济可能会继续保持现状，即相当有韧性、相当不错的增长", "我认为目前美国家庭的财政状况比20年前更好", "最近的通胀数据，我并不认真看待，由于停摆，数据收集存在一些问题", "通胀高企已经有4-5 年时间了，我们都应该对此感到警惕", "我非常有信心住房服务通胀正在下降；非住房服务则应该与工资挂钩，而工资增长正在缓慢呈下降趋势", "劳动力市场正在降温，通货膨胀仍然太高…直觉告诉我，目前劳动力市场可能是更大的挑战", "我猜明年失业率将或多或少持平，通胀缓慢下降", "最大的问题是，货币政策到底有多紧？", "经济比预期更有韧性，货币政策没有施加那么大的下行压力，所以我猜现在非常接近中性利率" ], "note_format": "topics", "note_topic": "就业/经济", "note_sections": [ { "topic": "就业/经济", "bullets": [ "我的预期是明年 经济可能会继续保持现状，即相当有韧性、相当不错的增长", "我认为目前美国家庭的财政状况比20年前更好" ] }, { "topic": "通胀", "bullets": [ "最近的通胀数据，我并不认真看待，由于停摆，数据收集存在一些问题", "通胀高企已经有4-5 年时间了，我们都应该对此感到警惕", "我非常有信心住房服务通胀正在下降；非住房服务则应该与工资挂钩，而工资增长正在缓慢呈下降趋势" ] }, { "topic": "风险平衡", "bullets": [ "劳动力市场正在降温，通货膨胀仍然太高…直觉告诉我，目前劳动力市场可能是更大的挑战", "我猜明年失业率将或多或少持平，通胀缓慢下降" ] }, { "topic": "货币政策", "bullets": [ "最大的问题是，货币政策到底有多紧？", "经济比预期更有韧性，货币政策没有施加那么大的下行压力，所以我猜现在非常接近中性利率" ] } ], "note_raw": "就业/经济\n‣ 我的预期是明年 经济可能会继续保持现状，即相当有韧性、相当不错的增长\n‣ 我认为目前美国家庭的财政状况比20年前更好\n通胀\n‣ 最近的通胀数据，我并不认真看待，由于停摆，数据收集存在一些问题\n‣ 通胀高企已经有4-5 年时间了，我们都应该对此感到警惕\n‣ 我非常有信心住房服务通胀正在下降；非住房服务则应该与工资挂钩，而工资增长正在缓慢呈下降趋势\n风险平衡\n‣ 劳动力市场正在降温，通货膨胀仍然太高…直觉告诉我，目前劳动力市场可能是更大的挑战\n‣ 我猜明年失业率将或多或少持平，通胀缓慢下降\n货币政策\n‣ 最大的问题是，货币政策到底有多紧？\n‣ 经济比预期更有韧性，货币政策没有施加那么大的下行压力，所以我猜现在非常接近中性利率", "article_id": "2e081cc90b14806a8c7cc226f1a7be06", "url": null }, { "date": "2025-11-14", "title": "美联储的卡什卡里谈通胀、住房与就业市场", "note_zh": [ "我对美国经济的韧性感到惊讶", "劳动力市场正在走软，但是一个良好的劳动力市场。", "我认为现在通胀正朝着正确的方向发展。对此我有信心。但我们需要等待", "我更担心的风险是，如果我们停留在 2.5% 左右的水平而不是回到 2% 的水平", "如果这种更高的生产力环境得以维持，那将告诉我我们可能处于一个中性利率更高的环境", "我们只需要花时间，让数据来指导我们" ], "note_format": "topics", "note_topic": "就业/经济", "note_sections": [ { "topic": "就业/经济", "bullets": [ "我对美国经济的韧性感到惊讶", "劳动力市场正在走软，但是一个良好的劳动力市场。" ] }, { "topic": "通胀", "bullets": [ "我认为现在通胀正朝着正确的方向发展。对此我有信心。但我们需要等待", "我更担心的风险是，如果我们停留在 2.5% 左右的水平而不是回到 2% 的水平" ] }, { "topic": "货币政策", "bullets": [ "如果这种更高的生产力环境得以维持，那将告诉我我们可能处于一个中性利率更高的环境", "我们只需要花时间，让数据来指导我们" ] } ], "note_raw": "就业/经济\n‣ 我对美国经济的韧性感到惊讶\n‣ 劳动力市场正在走软，但是一个良好的劳动力市场。\n通胀\n‣ 我认为现在通胀正朝着正确的方向发展。对此我有信心。但我们需要等待\n‣ 我更担心的风险是，如果我们停留在 2.5% 左右的水平而不是回到 2% 的水平\n货币政策\n‣ 如果这种更高的生产力环境得以维持，那将告诉我我们可能处于一个中性利率更高的环境\n‣ 我们只需要花时间，让数据来指导我们", "article_id": "2ab81cc90b1480b7bc1dd14555235351", "url": null }, { "date": "2025-10-08", "title": "美联储卡什卡里警告：激进降息将助长通胀", "note_zh": [ "关税通胀会是短期现象还是更为持久，现在下结论还为时过早鹰", "我们观察到的部分数据正释放出一些滞胀信号中", "如果美联储将利率大幅降至中性利率以下，最终会导致高通胀鹰", "对目前大量工人被人工智能取代的观点持怀疑态度" ], "note_format": "topics", "note_topic": "通胀", "note_sections": [ { "topic": "通胀", "bullets": [ "关税通胀会是短期现象还是更为持久，现在下结论还为时过早鹰" ] }, { "topic": "风险平衡", "bullets": [ "我们观察到的部分数据正释放出一些滞胀信号中" ] }, { "topic": "货币政策", "bullets": [ "如果美联储将利率大幅降至中性利率以下，最终会导致高通胀鹰" ] }, { "topic": "其他", "bullets": [ "对目前大量工人被人工智能取代的观点持怀疑态度" ] } ], "note_raw": "通胀\n‣ 关税通胀会是短期现象还是更为持久，现在下结论还为时过早鹰\n风险平衡\n‣ 我们观察到的部分数据正释放出一些滞胀信号中\n货币政策\n‣ 如果美联储将利率大幅降至中性利率以下，最终会导致高通胀鹰\n其他\n‣ 对目前大量工人被人工智能取代的观点持怀疑态度", "article_id": "cee2248023034758873e9ed6cb35c93c", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-07/fed-s-kashkari-warns-drastic-rate-cuts-would-stoke-inflation" }, { "date": "2025-09-21", "title": "三个问题", "note_zh": [ "劳动力市场似乎正在走弱。移民减少只能解释就业创造下降的三成到一半，需求疲软很可能也是就业增长放缓的重要推手。", "在劳动力市场显现放缓迹象的同时，风险市场却呈现狂热态势", "解释一：风险市场处于狂热泡沫，后续终将趋于一致", "解释二：金融市场正在预期关税通胀更低和降息更多", "解释三：中性利率 R*可能更高——至少在短期内如此——且资本正从劳动密集型行业重新配置到劳动密集度较低的行业。 在这种观点下，货币政策可能并不算特别紧缩", "劳动力市场和股票市场可能都没错：科技正在推动不需要太多劳动力的行业快速增长，导致股市繁荣而招聘市场低迷", "家庭和企业整体利率环境对政策利率变化不敏感性让我认为，中性利率可能已高于疫情前的水平", "通胀预期脱锚的主要风险：工资-物价螺旋上升风险微乎其微", "第二大风险来自可能损害美联储独立性的政治事态发展", "最后一项风险，是公众可能认为我们的政策反应机制发生了变化", "对我来说，更可能出现的风险是劳动力市场进一步快速疲软，失业率急剧上升的风险值得委员会采取行动", "考虑到已公布的关税税率以及进口商品在美国整体消费中占比较小，我认为通胀率很难显著突破 3%", "关税通胀的影响可能需要数个季度甚至数年才能知晓答案", "我将今年预期调整为三次，同时将长期均衡基金利率上调 25 个基点至 3.1%", "过去几年间，我持续上调对中性利率的评估水平。这一重新评估意味着货币政策可能并不像我此前认为的那般紧缩", "若劳动力市场表现出比当前看似更强的韧性，或通胀出现超预期上行，我们应准备暂停行动并维持政策利率不变。如果经济状况需要，我甚至对进一步上调政策利率持开放态度。 当然，如果劳动力市场的疲软速度超出我们当前预期，我们随时可以加快行动步伐，以支持经济活动。" ], "note_format": "topics", "note_topic": "Q1：为何劳动力市场与金融市场发出的矛盾信号？", "note_sections": [ { "topic": "Q1：为何劳动力市场与金融市场发出的矛盾信号？", "bullets": [ "劳动力市场似乎正在走弱。移民减少只能解释就业创造下降的三成到一半，需求疲软很可能也是就业增长放缓的重要推手。", "在劳动力市场显现放缓迹象的同时，风险市场却呈现狂热态势", "解释一：风险市场处于狂热泡沫，后续终将趋于一致", "解释二：金融市场正在预期关税通胀更低和降息更多", "解释三：中性利率 R*可能更高——至少在短期内如此——且资本正从劳动密集型行业重新配置到劳动密集度较低的行业。 在这种观点下，货币政策可能并不算特别紧缩", "劳动力市场和股票市场可能都没错：科技正在推动不需要太多劳动力的行业快速增长，导致股市繁荣而招聘市场低迷", "家庭和企业整体利率环境对政策利率变化不敏感性让我认为，中性利率可能已高于疫情前的水平" ] }, { "topic": "Q2：是否面临长期通胀预期失控的风险？", "bullets": [ "通胀预期脱锚的主要风险：工资-物价螺旋上升风险微乎其微", "第二大风险来自可能损害美联储独立性的政治事态发展", "最后一项风险，是公众可能认为我们的政策反应机制发生了变化" ] }, { "topic": "Q2：通胀风险还是就业风险更高？", "bullets": [ "对我来说，更可能出现的风险是劳动力市场进一步快速疲软，失业率急剧上升的风险值得委员会采取行动", "考虑到已公布的关税税率以及进口商品在美国整体消费中占比较小，我认为通胀率很难显著突破 3%", "关税通胀的影响可能需要数个季度甚至数年才能知晓答案", "我将今年预期调整为三次，同时将长期均衡基金利率上调 25 个基点至 3.1%", "过去几年间，我持续上调对中性利率的评估水平。这一重新评估意味着货币政策可能并不像我此前认为的那般紧缩", "若劳动力市场表现出比当前看似更强的韧性，或通胀出现超预期上行，我们应准备暂停行动并维持政策利率不变。如果经济状况需要，我甚至对进一步上调政策利率持开放态度。 当然，如果劳动力市场的疲软速度超出我们当前预期，我们随时可以加快行动步伐，以支持经济活动。" ] } ], "note_raw": "Q1：为何劳动力市场与金融市场发出的矛盾信号？\n‣ 劳动力市场似乎正在走弱。移民减少只能解释就业创造下降的三成到一半，需求疲软很可能也是就业增长放缓的重要推手。\n‣ 在劳动力市场显现放缓迹象的同时，风险市场却呈现狂热态势\n‣ 解释一：风险市场处于狂热泡沫，后续终将趋于一致\n‣ 解释二：金融市场正在预期关税通胀更低和降息更多\n‣ 解释三：中性利率 R*可能更高——至少在短期内如此——且资本正从劳动密集型行业重新配置到劳动密集度较低的行业。 在这种观点下，货币政策可能并不算特别紧缩\n‣ 劳动力市场和股票市场可能都没错：科技正在推动不需要太多劳动力的行业快速增长，导致股市繁荣而招聘市场低迷\n‣ 家庭和企业整体利率环境对政策利率变化不敏感性让我认为，中性利率可能已高于疫情前的水平\nQ2：是否面临长期通胀预期失控的风险？\n‣ 通胀预期脱锚的主要风险：工资-物价螺旋上升风险微乎其微\n‣ 第二大风险来自可能损害美联储独立性的政治事态发展\n‣ 最后一项风险，是公众可能认为我们的政策反应机制发生了变化\nQ2：通胀风险还是就业风险更高？\n‣ 对我来说，更可能出现的风险是劳动力市场进一步快速疲软，失业率急剧上升的风险值得委员会采取行动\n‣ 考虑到已公布的关税税率以及进口商品在美国整体消费中占比较小，我认为通胀率很难显著突破 3%\n‣ 关税通胀的影响可能需要数个季度甚至数年才能知晓答案\n‣ 我将今年预期调整为三次，同时将长期均衡基金利率上调 25 个基点至 3.1%\n‣ 过去几年间，我持续上调对中性利率的评估水平。这一重新评估意味着货币政策可能并不像我此前认为的那般紧缩\n‣ 若劳动力市场表现出比当前看似更强的韧性，或通胀出现超预期上行，我们应准备暂停行动并维持政策利率不变。如果经济状况需要，我甚至对进一步上调政策利率持开放态度。 当然，如果劳动力市场的疲软速度超出我们当前预期，我们随时可以加快行动步伐，以支持经济活动。", "article_id": "90afe3072ea44756895d47265e328a28", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2025/three-questions" }, { "date": "2025-09-21", "title": "CNBC对明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡里的完整专访", "note_zh": [ "我们不能接受3%的通胀。我有信心我们会把通胀拉回到2%", "我越来越有信心这更可能是一次性的，但需要几年时间才能消化掉", "降息是合适的，但我不确定还需要多少次降息，才能回到接近中性的状态。", "就业新增“平衡点”大概是5万到8万这样的水平，疫情前大概是8万到9万", "本周以及今年余下可能的降息，更多是作为保险，以防劳动力市场出现剧烈下滑，同时给潜在的通胀动态一些时间在未来一年左右演变", "我认为这不是一个糟糕的劳动力市场，但确实是一个需要我们密切关注的市场" ], "note_format": "topics", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "我们不能接受3%的通胀。我有信心我们会把通胀拉回到2%", "我越来越有信心这更可能是一次性的，但需要几年时间才能消化掉", "降息是合适的，但我不确定还需要多少次降息，才能回到接近中性的状态。", "就业新增“平衡点”大概是5万到8万这样的水平，疫情前大概是8万到9万", "本周以及今年余下可能的降息，更多是作为保险，以防劳动力市场出现剧烈下滑，同时给潜在的通胀动态一些时间在未来一年左右演变", "我认为这不是一个糟糕的劳动力市场，但确实是一个需要我们密切关注的市场" ] } ], "note_raw": "‣ 我们不能接受3%的通胀。我有信心我们会把通胀拉回到2%\n‣ 我越来越有信心这更可能是一次性的，但需要几年时间才能消化掉\n‣ 降息是合适的，但我不确定还需要多少次降息，才能回到接近中性的状态。\n‣ 就业新增“平衡点”大概是5万到8万这样的水平，疫情前大概是8万到9万\n‣ 本周以及今年余下可能的降息，更多是作为保险，以防劳动力市场出现剧烈下滑，同时给潜在的通胀动态一些时间在未来一年左右演变\n‣ 我认为这不是一个糟糕的劳动力市场，但确实是一个需要我们密切关注的市场", "article_id": "27681cc90b148019bab8ded101499444", "url": null }, { "date": "2025-08-07", "title": "美联储卡什卡里称近期降息或适宜", "note_zh": [ "我们还能等多久，直到关税的影响变得明朗？这正让我感到压力…所有选项中最好的办法是我们先做一些调整，即使不得不停下来，甚至不得不改变方向，那可能也比我们一直按兵不动，直到关税问题明朗要好", "我有信心的是经济正在放缓，我还没有信心的是关税对通胀的最终影响…经济正在放缓意味着，在短期内开始降息可能是合适的", "今年降息两次仍是合理的。但如果关税通胀更大更持久，我们可能会先降息一次或多次，然后暂停；通胀更严重的话，我们甚至可能再次加息", "对我来说，总统解雇劳工统计局局长，不过是不喜欢经济统计数据的总统发脾气" ], "note_format": "topics", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "我们还能等多久，直到关税的影响变得明朗？这正让我感到压力…所有选项中最好的办法是我们先做一些调整，即使不得不停下来，甚至不得不改变方向，那可能也比我们一直按兵不动，直到关税问题明朗要好", "我有信心的是经济正在放缓，我还没有信心的是关税对通胀的最终影响…经济正在放缓意味着，在短期内开始降息可能是合适的", "今年降息两次仍是合理的。但如果关税通胀更大更持久，我们可能会先降息一次或多次，然后暂停；通胀更严重的话，我们甚至可能再次加息", "对我来说，总统解雇劳工统计局局长，不过是不喜欢经济统计数据的总统发脾气" ] } ], "note_raw": "‣ 我们还能等多久，直到关税的影响变得明朗？这正让我感到压力…所有选项中最好的办法是我们先做一些调整，即使不得不停下来，甚至不得不改变方向，那可能也比我们一直按兵不动，直到关税问题明朗要好\n‣ 我有信心的是经济正在放缓，我还没有信心的是关税对通胀的最终影响…经济正在放缓意味着，在短期内开始降息可能是合适的\n‣ 今年降息两次仍是合理的。但如果关税通胀更大更持久，我们可能会先降息一次或多次，然后暂停；通胀更严重的话，我们甚至可能再次加息\n‣ 对我来说，总统解雇劳工统计局局长，不过是不喜欢经济统计数据的总统发脾气", "article_id": "d15da8cc3f1c45498b491ab4340ef62d", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-06/fed-s-kashkari-says-rate-cut-may-be-appropriate-in-near-term" }, { "date": "2025-06-27", "title": "美联储卡什卡里称需更明确关税对通胀的影响", "note_zh": [ "就业市场仍佳，并未急转直下。", "在对关税相关通胀有更清晰的了解之前，我们需要放慢脚步", "我们也听到很多企业表示暂时不想转嫁成本增加，因为关税回落", "我们仍需更好地评估关税对经济的影响，我们现在还不够清楚" ], "note_format": "topics", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "就业市场仍佳，并未急转直下。", "在对关税相关通胀有更清晰的了解之前，我们需要放慢脚步", "我们也听到很多企业表示暂时不想转嫁成本增加，因为关税回落", "我们仍需更好地评估关税对经济的影响，我们现在还不够清楚" ] } ], "note_raw": "‣ 就业市场仍佳，并未急转直下。\n‣ 在对关税相关通胀有更清晰的了解之前，我们需要放慢脚步\n‣ 我们也听到很多企业表示暂时不想转嫁成本增加，因为关税回落\n‣ 我们仍需更好地评估关税对经济的影响，我们现在还不够清楚", "article_id": "e8ddc2c574264d748df1e39caf910129", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/feds-kashkari-says-more-clarity-needed-tariffs-impact-inflation-2025-06-27/" }, { "date": "2025-06-27", "title": "关税影响：是延迟还是避免？", "note_zh": [ "贸易战尚未在数据中显现，两个可能解释：影响存在滞后，或企业正寻找规避关税的方法（或两者兼有）", "许多企业不愿意将关税转嫁给客户，尤其是在贸易协议可能很快达成的情况下；如果未能迅速达成，导致关税保持高位，企业表示将不得不将关税转嫁给客户", "许多进口商品的实际适用关税存在延迟，也推迟了关税影响", "需要时间确定关税通胀是仅被推迟了，还是比预期幅度更小", "维持今年降息2次的预期，可能在九月进行首次降息", "如果数据需要，可以将利率维持在新的水平，直到我们更有信心" ], "note_format": "topics", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "贸易战尚未在数据中显现，两个可能解释：影响存在滞后，或企业正寻找规避关税的方法（或两者兼有）", "许多企业不愿意将关税转嫁给客户，尤其是在贸易协议可能很快达成的情况下；如果未能迅速达成，导致关税保持高位，企业表示将不得不将关税转嫁给客户", "许多进口商品的实际适用关税存在延迟，也推迟了关税影响", "需要时间确定关税通胀是仅被推迟了，还是比预期幅度更小", "维持今年降息2次的预期，可能在九月进行首次降息", "如果数据需要，可以将利率维持在新的水平，直到我们更有信心" ] } ], "note_raw": "‣ 贸易战尚未在数据中显现，两个可能解释：影响存在滞后，或企业正寻找规避关税的方法（或两者兼有）\n‣ 许多企业不愿意将关税转嫁给客户，尤其是在贸易协议可能很快达成的情况下；如果未能迅速达成，导致关税保持高位，企业表示将不得不将关税转嫁给客户\n‣ 许多进口商品的实际适用关税存在延迟，也推迟了关税影响\n‣ 需要时间确定关税通胀是仅被推迟了，还是比预期幅度更小\n‣ 维持今年降息2次的预期，可能在九月进行首次降息\n‣ 如果数据需要，可以将利率维持在新的水平，直到我们更有信心", "article_id": "467a8fffd055408e91d21b092375ddda", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2025/tariff-impacts-delayed-or-avoided" }, { "date": "2025-06-25", "title": "卡什卡里表示，美联储需要更清楚了解关税对价格的影响", "note_zh": [ "过去两三个月的通胀数据相当积极，表明通缩路径正在按计划进行", "我们一直在谨慎观望，试图弄清楚关税实际影响，然后再对政策做出重大调整", "当前的货币政策状态(观望)是必要的" ], "note_format": "topics", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "过去两三个月的通胀数据相当积极，表明通缩路径正在按计划进行", "我们一直在谨慎观望，试图弄清楚关税实际影响，然后再对政策做出重大调整", "当前的货币政策状态(观望)是必要的" ] } ], "note_raw": "‣ 过去两三个月的通胀数据相当积极，表明通缩路径正在按计划进行\n‣ 我们一直在谨慎观望，试图弄清楚关税实际影响，然后再对政策做出重大调整\n‣ 当前的货币政策状态(观望)是必要的", "article_id": "f8eebc7787e841cdb6a4d7f2b3162b5d", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-24/kashkari-says-fed-needs-more-clarity-on-tariff-impact-on-prices" }, { "date": "2025-06-06", "title": "卡什卡利称美联储已做好等待关税影响的充分准备", "note_zh": [ "目前为止经济似乎仍有韧性，现在是获取数据的时候，必须静观其变", "劳动力市场显示出一些放缓的迹象", "关税不确定性持续时间越长，负面影响就越大" ], "note_format": "topics", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "目前为止经济似乎仍有韧性，现在是获取数据的时候，必须静观其变", "劳动力市场显示出一些放缓的迹象", "关税不确定性持续时间越长，负面影响就越大" ] } ], "note_raw": "‣ 目前为止经济似乎仍有韧性，现在是获取数据的时候，必须静观其变\n‣ 劳动力市场显示出一些放缓的迹象\n‣ 关税不确定性持续时间越长，负面影响就越大", "article_id": "56608c87abd048d98c282457acdc5704", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-04/kashkari-says-fed-well-positioned-to-wait-for-tariff-impact" }, { "date": "2025-05-28", "title": "尼尔·卡什卡里在日本银行货币经济研究所会议上的讲话", "note_zh": [ "联储内部关于是否\"忽视\"关税的通胀影响，存在健康的辩论", "我更倾向于不能\"忽视\"关税通胀，维持当前政策立场，直到前景更清晰", "\"我宁愿行动缓慢但朝着正确的方向前进，也不愿迅速地走向错误的方向\"", "对于严格的政策规则(如泰勒规则)而言，不能忽视关税引起的通胀", "花时间获取更多信息以帮助判断，可能是在不完美选项中最好的方案" ], "note_format": "topics", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "联储内部关于是否\"忽视\"关税的通胀影响，存在健康的辩论", "我更倾向于不能\"忽视\"关税通胀，维持当前政策立场，直到前景更清晰", "\"我宁愿行动缓慢但朝着正确的方向前进，也不愿迅速地走向错误的方向\"", "对于严格的政策规则(如泰勒规则)而言，不能忽视关税引起的通胀", "花时间获取更多信息以帮助判断，可能是在不完美选项中最好的方案" ] } ], "note_raw": "‣ 联储内部关于是否\"忽视\"关税的通胀影响，存在健康的辩论\n‣ 我更倾向于不能\"忽视\"关税通胀，维持当前政策立场，直到前景更清晰\n‣ \"我宁愿行动缓慢但朝着正确的方向前进，也不愿迅速地走向错误的方向\"\n‣ 对于严格的政策规则(如泰勒规则)而言，不能忽视关税引起的通胀\n‣ 花时间获取更多信息以帮助判断，可能是在不完美选项中最好的方案", "article_id": "0eda689845854d0d95e9d4c9fe5720a7", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/speeches/2025/neel-kashkari-remarks-at-the-bank-of-japans-institute-for-monetary-and-economic-studies-conference" }, { "date": "2025-05-27", "title": "卡什卡里表示对 9 月份的利率变动\"不确定\"", "note_zh": [ "不确定9月时前景是否会足够清晰，关注数据和贸易谈判", "若在接下来的几个月美国与他国达成贸易协议，应能为前景清晰度提供很多帮助" ], "note_format": "topics", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "不确定9月时前景是否会足够清晰，关注数据和贸易谈判", "若在接下来的几个月美国与他国达成贸易协议，应能为前景清晰度提供很多帮助" ] } ], "note_raw": "‣ 不确定9月时前景是否会足够清晰，关注数据和贸易谈判\n‣ 若在接下来的几个月美国与他国达成贸易协议，应能为前景清晰度提供很多帮助", "article_id": "e473fb0ffa994a9296bdbe27704fb207", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-26/kashkari-says-not-sure-on-interest-rate-moves-by-september" }, { "date": "2025-05-20", "title": "尼尔·卡什卡里在明尼苏达州年轻美国领袖项目中的炉边谈话", "note_zh": [ "我们将继续观望，直到获得更多信息。" ], "note_format": "topics", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "我们将继续观望，直到获得更多信息。" ] } ], "note_raw": "‣ 我们将继续观望，直到获得更多信息。", "article_id": "ba1f2cb55dd944c887c03954a176bc8f", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/speeches/2025/Neel-Kashkari-at-Minnesota-Young-American-Leaders-Program" }, { "date": "2025-04-25", "title": "美联储的卡什卡里担心贸易政策不确定性将导致裁员", "note_zh": [ "一些企业表示如果不确定性持续，他们可能计划裁员" ], "note_format": "topics", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "一些企业表示如果不确定性持续，他们可能计划裁员" ] } ], "note_raw": "‣ 一些企业表示如果不确定性持续，他们可能计划裁员", "article_id": "1e081cc90b148029bfe8f3a4d2fec1bc", "url": null }, { "date": "2025-04-23", "title": "卡什卡里表示美联储必须确保关税引发的通胀不会持续存在", "note_zh": [ "现在还无法有信心地判断：关税对通胀的一次性影响，还是长期影响？", "美联储的职责是确保关税不会引发持续的通胀问题", "美联储的独立性是美国经济近年来成功的“基础”", "若美国没有贸易逆差，将不再是最具投资吸引力的国家，判断是否发生还为时过早", "希望美国保持全球经济的领先地位，美元保持全球储备货币低位" ], "note_format": "topics", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "现在还无法有信心地判断：关税对通胀的一次性影响，还是长期影响？", "美联储的职责是确保关税不会引发持续的通胀问题", "美联储的独立性是美国经济近年来成功的“基础”", "若美国没有贸易逆差，将不再是最具投资吸引力的国家，判断是否发生还为时过早", "希望美国保持全球经济的领先地位，美元保持全球储备货币低位" ] } ], "note_raw": "‣ 现在还无法有信心地判断：关税对通胀的一次性影响，还是长期影响？\n‣ 美联储的职责是确保关税不会引发持续的通胀问题\n‣ 美联储的独立性是美国经济近年来成功的“基础”\n‣ 若美国没有贸易逆差，将不再是最具投资吸引力的国家，判断是否发生还为时过早\n‣ 希望美国保持全球经济的领先地位，美元保持全球储备货币低位", "article_id": "ee50a77b2c8b41dc9ff55e299fbd0c9a", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-22/kashkari-says-fed-must-ensure-tariff-inflation-not-persistent" }, { "date": "2025-04-14", "title": "2025 年 4 月 13 日，明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长尼尔·卡什卡里在《与玛格丽特·布伦南面对面》上的讲话记录", "note_zh": [ "我们的工作是控制通货膨胀，以防止利率上升得更高", "美联储或财政部的干预应当仅在不得已的情况下进行", "越快达成贸易协议，信心就能越快恢复，风险也能降低" ], "note_format": "topics", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "我们的工作是控制通货膨胀，以防止利率上升得更高", "美联储或财政部的干预应当仅在不得已的情况下进行", "越快达成贸易协议，信心就能越快恢复，风险也能降低" ] } ], "note_raw": "‣ 我们的工作是控制通货膨胀，以防止利率上升得更高\n‣ 美联储或财政部的干预应当仅在不得已的情况下进行\n‣ 越快达成贸易协议，信心就能越快恢复，风险也能降低", "article_id": "95c4b413cdba40aeaac092d8e2d7d785", "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/neel-kashkari-minneapolis-fed-president-face-the-nation-transcript-04-13-2025/" }, { "date": "2025-04-10", "title": "已宣布关税对货币政策的潜在影响", "note_zh": [ "信心的冲击可能对经济产生比关税本身更大的影响", "关税比预期要高得多 范围更广，导致直接经济影响更大，信心冲击也更大", "我们的首要任务必须是保持长期通货膨胀预期的锚定", "关税的大幅增加提高，在短期内，可能使中性利率下降", "由于关税的影响，改变联邦基金利率的障碍已经增加", "尽管经济疲软和失业率可能上升，降息的门槛更高", "通胀预期失去锚定的风险似乎显著增加。" ], "note_format": "topics", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "信心的冲击可能对经济产生比关税本身更大的影响", "关税比预期要高得多 范围更广，导致直接经济影响更大，信心冲击也更大", "我们的首要任务必须是保持长期通货膨胀预期的锚定", "关税的大幅增加提高，在短期内，可能使中性利率下降", "由于关税的影响，改变联邦基金利率的障碍已经增加", "尽管经济疲软和失业率可能上升，降息的门槛更高", "通胀预期失去锚定的风险似乎显著增加。" ] } ], "note_raw": "‣ 信心的冲击可能对经济产生比关税本身更大的影响\n‣ 关税比预期要高得多 范围更广，导致直接经济影响更大，信心冲击也更大\n‣ 我们的首要任务必须是保持长期通货膨胀预期的锚定\n‣ 关税的大幅增加提高，在短期内，可能使中性利率下降\n‣ 由于关税的影响，改变联邦基金利率的障碍已经增加\n‣ 尽管经济疲软和失业率可能上升，降息的门槛更高\n‣ 通胀预期失去锚定的风险似乎显著增加。", "article_id": "d79ffc88d69341d8abdd99b68eca6bdf", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2025/potential-implications-of-announced-tariffs-for-monetary-policy" }, { "date": "2025-03-26", "title": "美联储倾听：在底特律湖区商会经济峰会上与 Neel Kashkari 的对话 | 明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行", "note_zh": [ "与许多其他国家相比，我们已经相对隔离于全球贸易体系", "不确定性对信心的打击持续时间越长，影响就越深远", "如果现在能够解决贸易不确定性，信心的打击可能会迅速恢复" ], "note_format": "topics", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "与许多其他国家相比，我们已经相对隔离于全球贸易体系", "不确定性对信心的打击持续时间越长，影响就越深远", "如果现在能够解决贸易不确定性，信心的打击可能会迅速恢复" ] } ], "note_raw": "‣ 与许多其他国家相比，我们已经相对隔离于全球贸易体系\n‣ 不确定性对信心的打击持续时间越长，影响就越深远\n‣ 如果现在能够解决贸易不确定性，信心的打击可能会迅速恢复", "article_id": "48ecc3127dfe41bfb036a2941517c3a6", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/speeches/2025/Neel-Kashkari-at-Detroit-Lakes-Chamber-Economic-Summit" }, { "date": "2025-02-07", "title": "明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行的卡什卡里预计今年晚些时候利率将下降", "note_zh": [ "对美联储降息与十年期国债收益率背离并不担心", "我认为最重要的是4.0%的失业率，这仍然是一个良好的劳动力市场", "我们处于一个良好的位置，我和我的同事们基本上都表示需要观望", "如果看到非常好的通胀数据，我倾向于支持进一步放松政策。", "我预计今年年底的联邦基金利率会比现在略低" ], "note_format": "lines", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "对美联储降息与十年期国债收益率背离并不担心", "我认为最重要的是4.0%的失业率，这仍然是一个良好的劳动力市场", "我们处于一个良好的位置，我和我的同事们基本上都表示需要观望", "如果看到非常好的通胀数据，我倾向于支持进一步放松政策。", "我预计今年年底的联邦基金利率会比现在略低" ] } ], "note_raw": "对美联储降息与十年期国债收益率背离并不担心\n我认为最重要的是4.0%的失业率，这仍然是一个良好的劳动力市场\n我们处于一个良好的位置，我和我的同事们基本上都表示需要观望\n如果看到非常好的通胀数据，我倾向于支持进一步放松政策。\n我预计今年年底的联邦基金利率会比现在略低", "article_id": "e58fa89906af49c19142d0149b1047c0", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/07/minneapolis-feds-kashkari-expects-lower-interest-rates-later-this-year.html" }, { "date": "2024-11-26", "title": "美联储卡什卡里表示考虑下个月降息是合理的", "note_zh": [ "12月会议上考虑再次降息是合理的考虑；", "关税可能会导致一次性价格上涨，但外国报复可能推高价格；" ], "note_format": "lines", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "12月会议上考虑再次降息是合理的考虑；", "关税可能会导致一次性价格上涨，但外国报复可能推高价格；" ] } ], "note_raw": "12月会议上考虑再次降息是合理的考虑；\n关税可能会导致一次性价格上涨，但外国报复可能推高价格；", "article_id": "e213b7c43b8640f39d0906de80d4532b", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-25/fed-s-kashkari-says-reasonable-to-consider-rate-cut-next-month" }, { "date": "2024-11-14", "title": "美联储卡什卡里称通胀数据正朝着正确方向发展", "note_zh": [ "最新通胀数据证实正朝着2%的目标下降；", "在做出任何决定之前，还有一个月的数据需要分析；", "劳动力市场的状况良好，希望能够保持这一状态；", "目前尚未看到明显的通胀上行风险，更大的风险在于经济可能陷入停滞。" ], "note_format": "lines", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "最新通胀数据证实正朝着2%的目标下降；", "在做出任何决定之前，还有一个月的数据需要分析；", "劳动力市场的状况良好，希望能够保持这一状态；", "目前尚未看到明显的通胀上行风险，更大的风险在于经济可能陷入停滞。" ] } ], "note_raw": "最新通胀数据证实正朝着2%的目标下降；\n在做出任何决定之前，还有一个月的数据需要分析；\n劳动力市场的状况良好，希望能够保持这一状态；\n目前尚未看到明显的通胀上行风险，更大的风险在于经济可能陷入停滞。", "article_id": "87eb1aca49a447aab072f10cd031380a", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-13/fed-s-kashkari-says-inflation-data-moving-in-right-direction" }, { "date": "2024-11-13", "title": "美联储卡什卡里称只有通胀才能使12月降息脱轨", "note_zh": [ "Q：什么会导致12月暂停降息？", "A：通胀方面必须出现意外，前景才会发生如此巨大的变化…如果从现在到那时我们看到通胀意外上升，我们可能会犹豫不决。", "考虑到住房市场，通胀率降至2%可能需要一到两年的时间;", "在生产率较高的环境下，中性利率较高，意味着美联储降息的空间较小。", "停止缩表的门槛“相当高”，停止缩表之前还有很长的路要走。" ], "note_format": "lines", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "Q：什么会导致12月暂停降息？", "A：通胀方面必须出现意外，前景才会发生如此巨大的变化…如果从现在到那时我们看到通胀意外上升，我们可能会犹豫不决。", "考虑到住房市场，通胀率降至2%可能需要一到两年的时间;", "在生产率较高的环境下，中性利率较高，意味着美联储降息的空间较小。", "停止缩表的门槛“相当高”，停止缩表之前还有很长的路要走。" ] } ], "note_raw": "Q：什么会导致12月暂停降息？\nA：通胀方面必须出现意外，前景才会发生如此巨大的变化…如果从现在到那时我们看到通胀意外上升，我们可能会犹豫不决。\n考虑到住房市场，通胀率降至2%可能需要一到两年的时间;\n在生产率较高的环境下，中性利率较高，意味着美联储降息的空间较小。\n停止缩表的门槛“相当高”，停止缩表之前还有很长的路要走。", "article_id": "17fd8c5cf14647d6a89c6028dca65a22", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-12/fed-s-kashkari-says-only-inflation-could-derail-december-cut" }, { "date": "2024-11-11", "title": "美联储卡什卡里表示经济走强可能意味着降息次数减少", "note_zh": [ "我对经济的弹性感到惊讶，如果这种情况持续下去，我们最终不会降息那么多。" ], "note_format": "lines", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "我对经济的弹性感到惊讶，如果这种情况持续下去，我们最终不会降息那么多。" ] } ], "note_raw": "我对经济的弹性感到惊讶，如果这种情况持续下去，我们最终不会降息那么多。", "article_id": "7910a07a61cd44059edf156dcdd6cc6c", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-09/fed-s-kashkari-says-stronger-economy-could-mean-fewer-rate-cuts" }, { "date": "2024-10-21", "title": "尼尔·卡什卡里 (Neel Kashkari) 在齐珀瓦瀑布地区商会的市政厅", "note_zh": [ "我们绝对希望避免经济衰退，我们已经看到劳动力市场疲软的迹象；", "劳动力市场的迅速疲软迹象可能会导致更快地降息。", "目前我预计未来几个季度将会有适度的降息。" ], "note_format": "lines", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "我们绝对希望避免经济衰退，我们已经看到劳动力市场疲软的迹象；", "劳动力市场的迅速疲软迹象可能会导致更快地降息。", "目前我预计未来几个季度将会有适度的降息。" ] } ], "note_raw": "我们绝对希望避免经济衰退，我们已经看到劳动力市场疲软的迹象；\n劳动力市场的迅速疲软迹象可能会导致更快地降息。\n目前我预计未来几个季度将会有适度的降息。", "article_id": "5a88a45079d747729acce24ef8b0d565", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/speeches/2024/Town-hall-with-Neel-Kashkari-at-the-Chippewa-Falls-Area-Chamber-of-Commerce" }, { "date": "2024-10-15", "title": "美联储卡什卡里预计未来几个季度将“进一步适度”降息", "note_zh": [ "近期就业数据表明劳动力市场并未迅速疲软；", "进一步“适度”的降息似乎是合适的；", "剩余两次会议每次降息25BP是一个“合理的起点”；", "中性利率现在可能高于疫情前水平。" ], "note_format": "lines", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "近期就业数据表明劳动力市场并未迅速疲软；", "进一步“适度”的降息似乎是合适的；", "剩余两次会议每次降息25BP是一个“合理的起点”；", "中性利率现在可能高于疫情前水平。" ] } ], "note_raw": "近期就业数据表明劳动力市场并未迅速疲软；\n进一步“适度”的降息似乎是合适的；\n剩余两次会议每次降息25BP是一个“合理的起点”；\n中性利率现在可能高于疫情前水平。", "article_id": "6b4f62c5f7c9445fb8b7d28fb8779ac8", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-14/fed-s-kashkari-says-further-modest-cuts-apt-in-coming-quarters" }, { "date": "2024-10-07", "title": "Neel Kashkari 在银行控股公司协会秋季研讨会上的问答", "note_zh": [ "9月就业数据强劲是件好事,希望这种情况能继续下去" ], "note_format": "lines", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "9月就业数据强劲是件好事,希望这种情况能继续下去" ] } ], "note_raw": "9月就业数据强劲是件好事,希望这种情况能继续下去", "article_id": "36d2654408974f8295cae55efdaa8645", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/speeches/2024/neel-kashkari-qa-at-the-bank-holding-company-association-fall-seminar" }, { "date": "2024-09-23", "title": "明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡里预计未来降息步伐将放缓", "note_zh": [ "50个BP降息是“正确的决定”，反映了通胀进展和劳动力市场放缓；", "除非数据发生重大变化，否则我们接下来可能会采取较小的步伐。" ], "note_format": "lines", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "50个BP降息是“正确的决定”，反映了通胀进展和劳动力市场放缓；", "除非数据发生重大变化，否则我们接下来可能会采取较小的步伐。" ] } ], "note_raw": "50个BP降息是“正确的决定”，反映了通胀进展和劳动力市场放缓；\n除非数据发生重大变化，否则我们接下来可能会采取较小的步伐。", "article_id": "167d9bf4afc74c0bac188b8dc96746d9", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/23/minneapolis-fed-president-kashkari-sees-slower-pace-of-rate-cuts-ahead.html" }, { "date": "2024-09-23", "title": "为什么我支持上周的降息", "note_zh": [ "风险的平衡已经从通胀上升转向劳动力市场进一步疲软；", "充分就业面临的风险让我支持上周50BP降息决定；", "即使降息50BP，货币政策依然处于紧缩状态；", "中性利率可能至少暂时攀升；", "未来前进道路取决于数据。" ], "note_format": "lines", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "风险的平衡已经从通胀上升转向劳动力市场进一步疲软；", "充分就业面临的风险让我支持上周50BP降息决定；", "即使降息50BP，货币政策依然处于紧缩状态；", "中性利率可能至少暂时攀升；", "未来前进道路取决于数据。" ] } ], "note_raw": "风险的平衡已经从通胀上升转向劳动力市场进一步疲软；\n充分就业面临的风险让我支持上周50BP降息决定；\n即使降息50BP，货币政策依然处于紧缩状态；\n中性利率可能至少暂时攀升；\n未来前进道路取决于数据。", "article_id": "05946843471748c19c535b43e0d12ef6", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2024/why-i-supported-cutting-rates-last-week" }, { "date": "2024-08-20", "title": "独家：美联储卡什卡里称就业市场疲软应为九月降息打开大门", "note_zh": [ "就业市场过度疲软的可能性越来越大…风险平衡已经发生了变化，9月可能降息的讨论是适当的；", "没有理由(首次)降息超过25个基点，因裁员率仍然很低，申请失业金的人数也没有显示出明显的恶化。" ], "note_format": "lines", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "就业市场过度疲软的可能性越来越大…风险平衡已经发生了变化，9月可能降息的讨论是适当的；", "没有理由(首次)降息超过25个基点，因裁员率仍然很低，申请失业金的人数也没有显示出明显的恶化。" ] } ], "note_raw": "就业市场过度疲软的可能性越来越大…风险平衡已经发生了变化，9月可能降息的讨论是适当的；\n没有理由(首次)降息超过25个基点，因裁员率仍然很低，申请失业金的人数也没有显示出明显的恶化。", "article_id": "facb0f8e6c3a4a2bb6d1a7aa57271a50", "url": "https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp500-nasdaq-live-08-19-2024/card/fed-s-kashkari-weaker-job-market-should-open-the-door-to-a-september-cut-Hk1iDUIR0gmOdRVlZgHx" }, { "date": "2024-06-17", "title": "文字记录：明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡里 (Neel Kashkari) 在“面对国家”接受采访", "note_zh": [ "今年在年底降息一次，是一个“合理的预测”；", "我们现在处于一个非常有利的位置，可以慢慢来以获取更多数据。" ], "note_format": "lines", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "今年在年底降息一次，是一个“合理的预测”；", "我们现在处于一个非常有利的位置，可以慢慢来以获取更多数据。" ] } ], "note_raw": "今年在年底降息一次，是一个“合理的预测”；\n我们现在处于一个非常有利的位置，可以慢慢来以获取更多数据。", "article_id": "1a5e1dbf0edd4a829fdc7503a1cca4ad", "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/neel-kashkari-minneapolis-federal-reserve-president-face-the-nation-transcript-06-16-2024/" }, { "date": "2024-06-03", "title": "美联储官员称利率应在“较长”时间内保持不变", "note_zh": [ "目前，我最好的猜测是，我们会将[利率]维持在较长一段时间内，直到我们获得更多数据，以某种方式说服我们，潜在通胀确实正在下降。" ], "note_format": "lines", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "目前，我最好的猜测是，我们会将[利率]维持在较长一段时间内，直到我们获得更多数据，以某种方式说服我们，潜在通胀确实正在下降。" ] } ], "note_raw": "目前，我最好的猜测是，我们会将[利率]维持在较长一段时间内，直到我们获得更多数据，以某种方式说服我们，潜在通胀确实正在下降。", "article_id": "8c50ab2263424b76ad4219fa27059504", "url": "https://www.ft.com/content/cbb9b949-1262-4d72-9ee7-6035c3e022d2" }, { "date": "2024-05-28", "title": "美联储卡什卡里表示不完全排除加息的可能性", "note_zh": [ "我可以告诉你，(我的预期是)降息肯定不会超过两次" ], "note_format": "lines", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "我可以告诉你，(我的预期是)降息肯定不会超过两次" ] } ], "note_raw": "我可以告诉你，(我的预期是)降息肯定不会超过两次", "article_id": "94c5e389ea914babb79e52d0503f0716", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-28/fed-s-kashkari-says-rate-hike-not-entirely-ruled-out" }, { "date": "2024-05-28", "title": "美联储卡什卡里希望在降息之前看到“更多个月”的积极通胀数据", "note_zh": [ "还需要更多个月的积极通胀数据让我相信调整政策是适当的;失业率处于低水平，必须非常关注通货膨胀的情况" ], "note_format": "lines", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "还需要更多个月的积极通胀数据让我相信调整政策是适当的;失业率处于低水平，必须非常关注通货膨胀的情况" ] } ], "note_raw": "还需要更多个月的积极通胀数据让我相信调整政策是适当的;失业率处于低水平，必须非常关注通货膨胀的情况", "article_id": "6007d0123a034240b655346d0768c79e", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/28/feds-kashkari-wants-to-see-many-more-months-of-positive-inflation-data-before-a-rate-cut.html" }, { "date": "2024-05-16", "title": "在 2024 年威利斯顿盆地石油会议上参加有关经济的炉边谈话", "note_zh": [ "我们可能需要维持一段时间，直到我们弄清楚潜在的通胀走向" ], "note_format": "lines", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "我们可能需要维持一段时间，直到我们弄清楚潜在的通胀走向" ] } ], "note_raw": "我们可能需要维持一段时间，直到我们弄清楚潜在的通胀走向", "article_id": "c3e4b3cab3674a898c4a9813665bfee1", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/speeches/2024/fireside-chat-with-meel-kashkari-at-williston-basin-conference" }, { "date": "2024-05-08", "title": "政策收紧很多。有多紧？ （更新）", "note_zh": [ "无论是相对于大流行前时期还是相对于之前的一些紧缩周期，联邦公开市场委员会都有意义地收紧了政策。" ], "note_format": "lines", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "无论是相对于大流行前时期还是相对于之前的一些紧缩周期，联邦公开市场委员会都有意义地收紧了政策。" ] } ], "note_raw": "无论是相对于大流行前时期还是相对于之前的一些紧缩周期，联邦公开市场委员会都有意义地收紧了政策。", "article_id": "6553fe050cb640f68d7cb16e965d94c7", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2024/policy-has-tightened-a-lot-how-tight-is-it-an-update" }, { "date": "2024-05-08", "title": "在 2024 年米尔肯研究所全球会议上与 Neel Kashkari 的对话", "note_zh": [ "最有可能的情况是我们在这里待很长一段时间" ], "note_format": "lines", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "最有可能的情况是我们在这里待很长一段时间" ] } ], "note_raw": "最有可能的情况是我们在这里待很长一段时间", "article_id": "3a77ae00d5cb4dbab50a208ddcbe0893", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/speeches/2024/a-conversation-with-neel-kashkari-at-the-2024-milken-institute-global-conference-" }, { "date": "2024-04-19", "title": "卡什卡里称美联储“有可能”全年维持利率稳定", "note_zh": [ "我们只需要坐在这里耐心等待，直到我们看到数据并希望确信通胀继续回落。" ], "note_format": "lines", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "我们只需要坐在这里耐心等待，直到我们看到数据并希望确信通胀继续回落。" ] } ], "note_raw": "我们只需要坐在这里耐心等待，直到我们看到数据并希望确信通胀继续回落。", "article_id": "f5058f39b08247acba91abd223a9b33b", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-18/kashkari-says-fed-could-potentially-hold-rates-steady-all-year" }, { "date": "2024-04-09", "title": "蒙大拿大学尼尔·卡什卡里市政厅", "note_zh": [ "我认为我们不太可能从现在开始加息，但我不想排除通胀意外上升的可能性" ], "note_format": "lines", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "我认为我们不太可能从现在开始加息，但我不想排除通胀意外上升的可能性" ] } ], "note_raw": "我认为我们不太可能从现在开始加息，但我不想排除通胀意外上升的可能性", "article_id": "6a49bbcfc1e044698f6950a4644fdd54", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/speeches/2024/Neel-Kashkari-town-hall-at-the-University-of-Montana" }, { "date": "2024-04-05", "title": "美联储卡什卡里提出今年不降息的可能性", "note_zh": [ "支持今年将降息两次，如果通胀进展停滞,经济强劲，今年可能不降息" ], "note_format": "lines", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "支持今年将降息两次，如果通胀进展停滞,经济强劲，今年可能不降息" ] } ], "note_raw": "支持今年将降息两次，如果通胀进展停滞,经济强劲，今年可能不降息", "article_id": "d3b612ef302647c3b5e3718e7378dc91", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-04/fed-s-kashkari-floats-possibility-of-no-rate-cuts-this-year" }, { "date": "2024-03-07", "title": "美联储卡什卡里预计 2024 年将降息两次，可能只会降息一次", "note_zh": [ "很难看到收到的数据表明降息幅度比我12月份说的要多，或者可能更少，但我还没有决定。" ], "note_format": "lines", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "很难看到收到的数据表明降息幅度比我12月份说的要多，或者可能更少，但我还没有决定。" ] } ], "note_raw": "很难看到收到的数据表明降息幅度比我12月份说的要多，或者可能更少，但我还没有决定。", "article_id": "f8804d1557a0408c84d80bd41c58fc6f", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-06/fed-s-kashkari-sees-two-rate-cuts-in-2024-potentially-just-one" }, { "date": "2024-02-23", "title": "明尼阿波利斯联储卡什卡利谈为何经济不确定性仍然如此之大", "note_zh": [ "对于当前的经济形势，有太多让人难以抱有信心的事情" ], "note_format": "lines", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "对于当前的经济形势，有太多让人难以抱有信心的事情" ] } ], "note_raw": "对于当前的经济形势，有太多让人难以抱有信心的事情", "article_id": "d1aa706a3dc2480499e22622630a62c2", "url": "https://www.startribune.com/federal-reserve-neel-kashkari-minneapolis-interest-rates-inflation-economy/600345262/" }, { "date": "2024-02-08", "title": "美联储卡什卡里认为 2024 年降息两到三次是适当的", "note_zh": [ "降息两到三次似乎对我来说是合适的" ], "note_format": "lines", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "降息两到三次似乎对我来说是合适的" ] } ], "note_raw": "降息两到三次似乎对我来说是合适的", "article_id": "a2d271864b44493098752eaafeb01a9b", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-07/fed-s-kashkari-sees-two-to-three-rate-cuts-as-appropriate-in-24" }, { "date": "2024-02-07", "title": "在大曼凯托增长活动中的问答", "note_zh": [ "美国今年避免经济衰退看起来很有希望" ], "note_format": "lines", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "美国今年避免经济衰退看起来很有希望" ] } ], "note_raw": "美国今年避免经济衰退看起来很有希望", "article_id": "5091e7dedec2476bb24a3fc473679a39", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/speeches/2024/neel-kashkari-qa-at-greater-mankato-growth-event" }, { "date": "2024-02-05", "title": "政策收紧很多，收紧到什么程度？", "note_zh": [ "当前的货币政策立场可能不会像我们假设的那样紧缩" ], "note_format": "lines", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "当前的货币政策立场可能不会像我们假设的那样紧缩" ] } ], "note_raw": "当前的货币政策立场可能不会像我们假设的那样紧缩", "article_id": "abbd7141d70d4bc98aab4a313f00b44b", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2024/policy-has-tightened-a-lot-how-tight-is-it" }, { "date": "2023-11-07", "title": "美联储卡什卡里称宣布通胀胜利还为时过早，需要更多数据 - 彭博社", "note_zh": [ "过度收紧货币政策的风险比采取过少的货币政策要好" ], "note_format": "lines", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "过度收紧货币政策的风险比采取过少的货币政策要好" ] } ], "note_raw": "过度收紧货币政策的风险比采取过少的货币政策要好", "article_id": "ad690499c3754977a57b5b6048c9bd23", "url": null }, { "date": "2023-11-04", "title": "美联储尼尔·卡什卡里表示现在说加息已经完成还为时过早 - 彭博社", "note_zh": [ "就业报告让我们更加放心，经济正在恢复平衡，但我不想对一份就业报告反应过度" ], "note_format": "lines", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "就业报告让我们更加放心，经济正在恢复平衡，但我不想对一份就业报告反应过度" ] } ], "note_raw": "就业报告让我们更加放心，经济正在恢复平衡，但我不想对一份就业报告反应过度", "article_id": "a25d5abf52004caa8d306fd06ce95f3d", "url": null }, { "date": "2023-10-11", "title": "尼尔·卡什卡里（Neel Kashkari）在迈诺特州立大学 |明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行", "note_zh": [ "长期收益率上升当然有可能为我们在降低通胀方面发挥一些作用" ], "note_format": "lines", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "长期收益率上升当然有可能为我们在降低通胀方面发挥一些作用" ] } ], "note_raw": "长期收益率上升当然有可能为我们在降低通胀方面发挥一些作用", "article_id": "c94263a0f228411683ecf62d7cbd5187", "url": null }, { "date": "2023-09-28", "title": "卡什卡里表示，如果出现停摆等风险，美联储可能会减少行动 - 彭博社", "note_zh": [ "预计在 2024 年保持平稳" ], "note_format": "lines", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "预计在 2024 年保持平稳" ] } ], "note_raw": "预计在 2024 年保持平稳", "article_id": "fc8f38fdf16a43b1bcc8a916d3f21ebc", "url": null }, { "date": "2023-09-27", "title": "政策收紧很多。够了吗？ （第二次更新）", "note_zh": [ "软着陆的概率为60%" ], "note_format": "lines", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "软着陆的概率为60%" ] } ], "note_raw": "软着陆的概率为60%", "article_id": "d02ebe494dc54a5487ad69433430821c", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2023/policy-has-tightened-a-lot-is-it-enough-a-second-update" }, { "date": "2023-09-26", "title": "在宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院的问答", "note_zh": [ "利率可能需要在更长时间内保持高位" ], "note_format": "lines", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "利率可能需要在更长时间内保持高位" ] } ], "note_raw": "利率可能需要在更长时间内保持高位", "article_id": "2ab83e978b0742058c8535644d57a7b3", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/speeches/2023/neel-kashkari-qa-at-university-of-pennsylvanias-wharton-school" }, { "date": "2023-08-01", "title": "卡什卡里称通胀前景“积极”，预计失业", "note_zh": [ "美国的通胀前景“相当乐观”；如果我们需要加息，进一步加息，我们就会这样做" ], "note_format": "lines", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "美国的通胀前景“相当乐观”；如果我们需要加息，进一步加息，我们就会这样做" ] } ], "note_raw": "美国的通胀前景“相当乐观”；如果我们需要加息，进一步加息，我们就会这样做", "article_id": "0fba7764d5924e64ada2e924a84cb236", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-30/kashkari-calls-inflation-outlook-positive-expects-job-losses#xj4y7vzkg" }, { "date": "2023-07-12", "title": "卡什卡里:通货膨胀与金融稳定之间的相互作用", "note_zh": [ "如果事实证明通胀比预期更为严重，政策利率可能需要走高" ], "note_format": "lines", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "如果事实证明通胀比预期更为严重，政策利率可能需要走高" ] } ], "note_raw": "如果事实证明通胀比预期更为严重，政策利率可能需要走高", "article_id": "424b72b04323426ab664bf94ed7b3070", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2023/the-interaction-between-inflation-and-financial-stability" }, { "date": "2023-05-23", "title": "美联储的卡什卡利表示，粘性价格可能会在更长时间内保持高利率", "note_zh": [ "如果通胀居高不下，将不得不在更长时间内保持高利率" ], "note_format": "lines", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "如果通胀居高不下，将不得不在更长时间内保持高利率" ] } ], "note_raw": "如果通胀居高不下，将不得不在更长时间内保持高利率", "article_id": "878cc97762314aaf8d6776579f1482d5", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-23/fed-s-kashkari-says-sticky-prices-may-keep-rates-high-for-longer" }, { "date": "2023-05-22", "title": "美联储卡什卡利称 6 月暂停加息或加息是“千钧一发”", "note_zh": [ "如果我们在 6 月份跳过，并不意味着我们的紧缩周期已经结束" ], "note_format": "lines", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "如果我们在 6 月份跳过，并不意味着我们的紧缩周期已经结束" ] } ], "note_raw": "如果我们在 6 月份跳过，并不意味着我们的紧缩周期已经结束", "article_id": "5f53b1aaf1c043a9b435601146daf344", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-22/fed-s-kashkari-says-a-june-rate-pause-or-hike-is-a-close-call" }, { "date": "2023-05-21", "title": "报道，美联储卡什卡利对 6 月不加息持开放态度", "note_zh": [ "可能支持6月不加息，反对反通胀完成。" ], "note_format": "lines", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "可能支持6月不加息，反对反通胀完成。" ] } ], "note_raw": "可能支持6月不加息，反对反通胀完成。", "article_id": "581b25a6202745cf9fb1629282676485", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-21/fed-s-kashkari-open-to-skipping-rate-hike-in-june-dj-reports" }, { "date": "2023-05-11", "title": "美联储的卡什卡利表示通胀过高，工资有所下降", "note_zh": [ "它一直非常顽固。这意味着我们将在很长一段时间内坚持下去" ], "note_format": "lines", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "它一直非常顽固。这意味着我们将在很长一段时间内坚持下去" ] } ], "note_raw": "它一直非常顽固。这意味着我们将在很长一段时间内坚持下去", "article_id": "0b34241a816c4b678284850fd4c9eb2e", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-11/fed-s-kashkari-says-inflation-too-high-wages-softened-somewhat" }, { "date": "2023-04-11", "title": "卡什卡利看到银行业恢复平静的迹象", "note_zh": [ "硅谷银行倒闭后银行业上个月的动荡正在减弱。" ], "note_format": "lines", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "硅谷银行倒闭后银行业上个月的动荡正在减弱。" ] } ], "note_raw": "硅谷银行倒闭后银行业上个月的动荡正在减弱。", "article_id": "2bdd6b703e3e4b26be544f36c6bb2898", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/speeches/2023/town-hall-with-neel-kashkari-at-montana-state-university" }, { "date": "2023-03-31", "title": "倒闭是否会导致信贷紧缩", "note_zh": [ "要使经济的服务业恢复平衡，我们还有更多工作要做" ], "note_format": "lines", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "要使经济的服务业恢复平衡，我们还有更多工作要做" ] } ], "note_raw": "要使经济的服务业恢复平衡，我们还有更多工作要做", "article_id": "fb803be2fa574d6dbb2ffbbb330a19e9", "url": "https://www.minneapolisfed.org/speeches/2023/Neel-Kashkari-QA-with-the-Minnesota-Housing-Partnership" }, { "date": "2023-03-27", "title": "美联储卡什卡利称银行业压力加大衰退风险", "note_zh": [ "银行业动荡增加了美国经济衰退的风险" ], "note_format": "lines", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "银行业动荡增加了美国经济衰退的风险" ] } ], "note_raw": "银行业动荡增加了美国经济衰退的风险", "article_id": "d9a153fbbffb428cbfa9126eeec75fa2", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-26/fed-s-kashkari-says-bank-strains-bring-risk-of-recession-closer" }, { "date": "2023-03-02", "title": "随着通胀持续上升，美联储官员倾向于提高利率", "note_zh": [ "对三月25基点或50基点的加息持开放态度" ], "note_format": "lines", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "对三月25基点或50基点的加息持开放态度" ] } ], "note_raw": "对三月25基点或50基点的加息持开放态度", "article_id": "e1c0160b35c24c0cbe08d467ea68caf2", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-01/fed-s-kashkari-open-minded-on-quarter-or-half-point-march-hike?leadSource=uverify%20wall" }, { "date": "2023-02-09", "title": "美联储卡什卡利表示，劳动力市场火爆表明需要更多加息加息影响劳动力市场的证据很少", "note_zh": [ "我们需要做更多" ], "note_format": "lines", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "我们需要做更多" ] } ], "note_raw": "我们需要做更多", "article_id": "a2a9d057d40e4f1b94e3fc5449e68f61", "url": "bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-08/fed-s-kashkari-says-hot-labor-market-signals-more-hikes-needed" }, { "date": "2023-02-08", "title": "美联储卡什卡利称强劲的就业数据表明需要更多加息", "note_zh": [ "目前我的利率仍然在 5.4% 左右" ], "note_format": "lines", "note_topic": null, "note_sections": [ { "topic": null, "bullets": [ "目前我的利率仍然在 5.4% 左右" ] } ], "note_raw": "目前我的利率仍然在 5.4% 左右", "article_id": "8fa86f90f5b043f7b8095b086f59b618", "url": 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